scholarly journals Paleoproductivity Variations in the Equatorial Arabian Sea: Implications for East African and Indian Summer Rainfalls and the El Niño Frequency

Radiocarbon ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manish Tiwari ◽  
Rengaswamy Ramesh ◽  
Ravi Bhushan ◽  
B L K Somayajulu ◽  
A J Timothy Jull ◽  
...  

We analyzed a sediment core from the equatorial Arabian Sea, chronologically constrained by accurate accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates on selected planktonic foraminiferal species, for paleoproductivity variations corresponding to the variations in the Indian Ocean Equatorial Westerlies (IEW). The IEW in turn are positively correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a measure of El Niño, Southwest monsoon (SWM), and east African rainfall (EAR). The productivity data show that Indian and east African rainfalls declined from 35,000 calendar yr BP up to the last glacial maximum (LGM), with the maximum El Niño frequency during the last glacial period. From ∼14,500 to ∼2000 calendar yr BP (i.e. core top), we find strengthening SWM and EAR along with declining El Niño frequency.

Nature ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 428 (6980) ◽  
pp. 306-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris S. M. Turney ◽  
A. Peter Kershaw ◽  
Steven C. Clemens ◽  
Nick Branch ◽  
Patrick T. Moss ◽  
...  

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
O. P. SINGH

The present study aims at gaining more insight into the evolution of warm pool and associated sea level dome in the southeastern Arabian Sea before the summer monsoon onset.  The results show that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) maximum in the warm pool region is found during April close to the southwest coast of India.  The Sea Surface Height (SSH) maximum over the same region is observed during December. The collapse of sea level dome begins well in advance during the pre-monsoon whereas the warm pool collapses after the onset of summer monsoon during June.  Therefore, there is a lag of about three to four months between the collapses of the sea level high and the warm pool.  Most interesting aspect is the dramatic increase of SST from September and SSH from October which is continued throughout the post monsoon season (October - December). Therefore, both the collapse and evolution of warm pool are dramatic events before and after the summer monsoon.                    There are considerable variations in the intensity of warm pool and the height of sea level dome on interannual scale.  The variation during El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epoch of 1987-88 has revealed many interesting features.  During El-Nino year 1987 the warm pool intensity reached its peak in June whereas during La Nina year 1988 the warm pool attained its maximum intensity much earlier, i.e., in April. 


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7989-8001 ◽  
Author(s):  
David MacLeod ◽  
Cyril Caminade

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, has been linked to intense rainfall over East Africa during the short rains season (October–December). However, we show here that during the extremely strong 2015 El Niño the precipitation anomaly over most of East Africa during the short rains season was less intense than experienced during previous El Niños, linked to less intense easterlies over the Indian Ocean. This moderate impact was not indicated by reforecasts from the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, which instead forecast large probabilities of an extreme wet signal, with stronger easterly anomalies over the surface of the Indian Ocean and a colder eastern Indian Ocean/western Pacific than was observed. To confirm the relationship of the eastern Indian Ocean to East African rainfall in the forecast for 2015, atmospheric relaxation experiments are carried out that constrain the east Indian Ocean lower troposphere to reanalysis. By doing so the strong wet forecast signal is reduced. These results raise the possibility that link between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events is too strong in the ECMWF dynamical seasonal forecast system and that model predictions for the East African short rains rainfall during strong El Niño events may have a bias toward high probabilities of wet conditions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (22) ◽  
pp. 14041-14056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S. Reid ◽  
Peng Xian ◽  
Brent N. Holben ◽  
Edward J. Hyer ◽  
Elizabeth A. Reid ◽  
...  

Abstract. The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August–September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 % lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30 %) to southern Kalimantan (−42 %). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden–Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500 nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of ∼ 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Niño event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42

Abstract Climate variabilities can have significant impacts on rainfall in East Africa, leading to disruption in natural and human systems and affecting the lives of tens of millions of people. Subseasonal and interannual variabilities are critical components of total rainfall variability in the region. The goal of this study is to examine the combined effects of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), operating at subseasonal timescale, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), operating at an interannual scale, on the modulation of East African boreal fall (October-November-December; OND) rainfall, commonly called the short rains. Composite analysis shows that daily rainfall responses depend on MJO phase and its interaction with ENSO state. In particular, MJO modulation of rainfall is generally stronger under El Niño conditions relative to ENSO neutral and La Niña conditions, leading to increased potential for daily precipitation excesses during wet MJO phases under El Niño. There is evidence for both dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms associated with these impacts, including an increase in westerly moisture transport and easterly advection of temperature and moist static energy. Seasonal analysis shows that the frequency and intensity of wet MJO phases during an El Niño contribute notably to the seasonal total precipitation anomaly. This suggests that MJO can mediate El Niño’s impact on OND rainfall in East Africa.


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