scholarly journals Modeling evidence for enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-I. An ◽  
A. Timmermann ◽  
L. Bejarano ◽  
F.-F. Jin ◽  
F. Justino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Oscillation Amplitude ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

scholarly journals Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1777-1805
Author(s):  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Precipitation Response ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

scholarly journals Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Chris M. Brierley ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Precipitation Response ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations are now available for both palaeoclimate time-slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (one percent per year CO2 increase, abrupt four times CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the Last Interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments, and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

Nature ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 428 (6980) ◽  
pp. 306-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris S. M. Turney ◽  
A. Peter Kershaw ◽  
Steven C. Clemens ◽  
Nick Branch ◽  
Patrick T. Moss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Latitude ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Glacial Period ◽  
Last Glacial Period ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Last Glacial

Reconstructions of the past distribution of Testudo graeca mitochondrial lineages in the Middle East and Transcaucasia support multiple refugia since the Last Glacial Maximum

2021 ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
Oguz Turkozan
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Testudo Graeca ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Multiple Refugia ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

A cycle of glacial and interglacial periods in the Quaternary caused species’ ranges to expand and contract in response to climatic and environmental changes. During interglacial periods, many species expanded their distribution ranges from refugia into higher elevations and latitudes. In the present work, we projected the responses of the five lineages of Testudo graeca in the Middle East and Transcaucasia as the climate shifted from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, Mid – Holocene), to the present. Under the past LGM and Mid-Holocene bioclimatic conditions, models predicted relatively more suitable habitats for some of the lineages. The most significant bioclimatic variables in predicting the present and past potential distribution of clades are the precipitation of the warmest quarter for T. g. armeniaca (95.8 %), precipitation seasonality for T. g. buxtoni (85.0 %), minimum temperature of the coldest month for T. g. ibera (75.4 %), precipitation of the coldest quarter for T. g. terrestris (34.1 %), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter for T. g. zarudyni (88.8 %). Since the LGM, we hypothesise that the ranges of lineages have either expanded (T. g. ibera), contracted (T. g. zarudnyi) or remained stable (T. g. terrestris), and for other two taxa (T. g. armeniaca and T. g. buxtoni) the pattern remains unclear. Our analysis predicts multiple refugia for Testudo during the LGM and supports previous hypotheses about high lineage richness in Anatolia resulting from secondary contact.

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