The polarization dynamics of electoral reforms

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Zachary Peskowitz ◽  
James Szewczyk
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Spatial Voting ◽  
Electoral Reforms ◽  
New Entrants ◽  
Legislative Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Policy Persistence

Abstract Electoral reforms affect legislative outcomes by influencing incumbent legislators’ behavior, new entrants’ behavior, and the probability that incumbents are replaced with new entrants. Empirical work on electoral reforms and polarization has focused on new entrants’ behavior. We employ a simple decision theoretic framework with partial incumbent policy persistence and spatial voting to examine the three channels jointly. We show that a reform designed to encourage ideological moderation produces larger effects on polarization when the reform is implemented than when it is removed. The key insight is that implementing a moderation-inducing reform generates a set of challengers who are more likely to defeat incumbents while the incumbents are more likely to win reelection when the reform is removed. We then empirically examine how elections and legislative polarization respond to unlimited PAC contributions in state legislatures. Examining incumbents’ decisions to stand for reelection, the electoral performance of incumbents who do run, and partisan polarization, we find empirical support for our predictions.

Bending with the Wind: Revisiting Islamist Parties’ Electoral Dilemma

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 588-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kadir Yildirim ◽  
Caroline M. Lancaster
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Support ◽  
Economic Openness ◽  
Support Level ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractIslamist parties' electoral performance is a hotly debated question. Two arguments dominate the literature in terms of Islamist parties' performance in democratic elections. The conventional argument has been the “one man, one vote, one time” hypothesis. More recently, Kurzman and Naqvi challenge this argument and show that Islamists tend to lose in free elections rather than win them. We argue that existing arguments fall short. Specifically, we theorize that moderateness of Islamist platform plays a key role in increasing the popularity of these parties and leads to higher levels of electoral support. Using data collected by Kurzman and Naqvi, we test our hypothesis, controlling for political platform and political economic factors in a quantitative analysis. We find that there is empirical support for our theory. Islamist parties' support level is positively associated with moderateness; however, this positive effect of moderation is also conditioned by economic openness.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship Between the Use of a Mobile Peer-Support App and Self-Injury Outcomes: Longitudinal Mixed Methods Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaylee Payne Kruzan ◽  
Janis Whitlock ◽  
Natalya N Bazarova
Keyword(s):  
Peer Support ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Online Forums ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Log Data ◽  
Self Injury ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Injury Outcomes ◽  
The Relationship

BACKGROUND Many individuals who self-injure seek support and information through online communities and mobile peer-support apps. Although researchers have identified risks and benefits of participation, empirical work linking participation in these web-based spaces to self-injury behaviors and thoughts is limited. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate the relationship between behavioral and linguistic traces on a mobile peer support app and self-injury outcomes. METHODS Natural use data and web-based surveys (N=697) assessing self-injury outcomes were collected from 268 users (aged 13-38 years; median 19; 149/268, 55.6% female) of a mobile peer-support app for 4 months. Participants were identified as having posted self-injury content using an internal classifier. Natural log data was used to predict self-injury outcomes in a series of multilevel logistic and linear regressions. RESULTS Greater engagement on a mobile peer-support app was associated with a decreased likelihood of self-injury thoughts (odds ratio [OR] 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.73) and fewer intentions to self-injure (<i>b</i>=−0.37, SE 0.09), whereas posting triggering content was associated with an increased likelihood of engaging in behaviors (OR 5.37, 95% CI 1.25-23.05) and having self-injury thoughts (OR 17.87, 95% CI 1.64-194.15). Moreover, viewing triggering content was related to both a greater ability to resist (<i>b</i>=1.39, SE 0.66) and a greater intention to self-injure (<i>b</i>=1.50, SE 0.06). CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge, this is the first study to connect naturally occurring log data to survey data assessing self-injury outcomes over time. This work provides empirical support for the relationship between participation in online forums and self-injury outcomes, and it articulates mechanisms contributing to this relationship. CLINICALTRIAL

scholarly journals Is the Private Sector more Productive than the Public Sector?

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (4II) ◽  
pp. 721-729
Author(s):  
Khwaja Sarmad
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Total Production ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

In developing countries the rapid growth of the public sector during the past few decades was viewed as an important means for accelerating the pace of economic growth. In most developing countries the public sector now accounts for a prominent share of total production and investment. But the contribution of the public sector to growth has been much below expectations. In many cases public enterprises require large subsidies from the government and impose a significant fiscal burden on the economy, which leads to the notion that the private sector is much more productive than the public sector. However, little empirical work has been done in this field so that the proposals that emphasize the private sector vis-a-vis the public sector rest largely on theoretical considerations. Recent work by Khan and Reinhart (1990) is an important exception. Using cross-section data for the seventies of 24 developing countries they show that the arguments favouring the private sector in adjustment programmes have empirical support. Khan and Reinhart estimate a growth model in which the effect of private and public investment on growth is separated. A comparison of the marginal productivities of the two types of investment allows them to conclude that "all in all, there does seem to be some merit in the key role assigned to private investment in the development process by supporters of market -based strategies". [Khan and Reinhart (1990), p. 25.]

Estimates of the Spatial Voting Model

2019 ◽  
pp. 818-838
Author(s):  
Christopher Hare ◽  
Keith T. Poole
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Model ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Geometric Theory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Point Estimation ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Spatial Voting ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Choices

In this chapter, the authors survey the empirical success of the spatial (or geometric) theory of voting. Empirical work lagged behind the development of theory until about 30 years ago and since then has exploded, with ideal-point estimation emerging as an important methodological subfield in political science. Empirical applications of spatial theory are now legion, and the basic news is that the spatial model has been enormously successful in explaining observed political choices and outcomes at both the elite and mass levels. In the United States, empirical estimates of the spatial model also help to explain incongruities between the median voter theorem and party polarization. These empirical estimates have demonstrated that the theory is extremely powerful on a number of levels—indeed, that it is one of the most successful mathematical theories in the social sciences.

scholarly journals Factors affecting to select Islamic credit cards in Pakistan: the TRA model

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Syed Ali Raza ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Credit Cards ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Bank Managers

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the factors affecting intentions to select Islamic credit cards in Pakistan by using the theory of reasoned action (TRA) model. In general, bank customers are aware of credit card facility, but the leading factors to select Islamic credit cards are particularly unexplored. Due to this fact, the study examined the effect of subjective norm (SN) and attitude (ATT) with the inclusion of new construct, namely, perceived financial cost (PFC) to predict the intention of customers about the Islamic credit card in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach Sample data were conveniently drawn from the bank customers with the help of a self-administered survey based questionnaire, which was consisted over five-point Likert scale. The study uses a sample of 492 bank customers located in the biggest city of Pakistan. Out of these responses, only 466 responses were used in the analysis, while the remaining responses were ignored due to missing data and incomplete responses. The data were analyzed through factor and regression analysis. Findings Findings from regression analysis suggest that SN and ATT show positive and significant impact on intentions to select an Islamic credit card, while PFC has a negative impact on intentions to select Islamic credit cards. Moreover, SN was found to be the most influential factor to predict the selection of Islamic credit card. Research implications This study has some practical implications for the academicians and Islamic bank managers. Through this research, bank managers can educate their customers about Islamic credit and financial products. Not only this, they should develop a strategy for the awareness of Islamic banking products through social networking and other marketing modes. On the other side, this study laid a foundation for future researchers to explore additional predictors of Islamic credit card. Their empirical work will provide a help to benefit and understand customers’ financial knowledge. Originality/value Islamic credit facility is entirely new in Pakistan and lacking with empirical support. Therefore, this investigation contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a comprehensive explanation on the Islamic credit card service in Pakistan.

“Killer” Amendments in Congress

1999 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 535-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Wilkerson
Keyword(s):  
Social Choice ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Baseline Measure ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Virtual Absence ◽  
Legislative Outcomes

For more than three decades, social choice theorists and legislative scholars have studied how legislative outcomes in Congress can be manipulated through strategic amendments and voting. I address the central limitation of this research, a virtual absence of systematic empirical work, by examining 76 “killer” amendments considered during the 103d and 104th congresses. I trace the effects of these amendments on their related bills using archival sources, test for strategic voting using NOMINATE as the baseline measure of legislator preferences across a range of issues, and explore with OLS regression why some killer amendments are more strategically important than others. The findings indicate that successful killer amendments and identifiable strategic voting are extremely rare. In none of the cases examined could the defeat of a bill be attributed to adoption of an alleged killer amendment.

Broad Bills or Particularistic Policy? Historical Patterns in American State Legislatures

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
GERALD GAMM ◽  
THAD KOUSSER
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Historical Variation ◽  
American State

When do lawmakers craft broad policies, and when do they focus on narrow legislation tailored to a local interest? We investigate this question by exploring historical variation in the types of bills produced by American state legislatures. Drawing on a new database of 165,000 bills—covering sessions over 120 years in thirteen different states—we demonstrate the surprising prominence of particularistic bills affecting a specific legislator's district. We then develop and test a theory linking the goals of legislators to their propensity to introduce district bills rather than broad legislation. We find that, consistent with our predictions, politicians are more likely to craft policies targeted to a particular local interest when a legislature is dominated by one party or when it pays its members relatively high salaries. These findings provide empirical support for Key's (1949) thesis that one-party politics descends into factionalism and undermines the making of broad public policy.

Interest group lobbying and partisan polarization in the United States: 1999–2016

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Alex Garlick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Agenda Control ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Relationship

Abstact The lobbying activity of interest groups has been overlooked as a contributing factor to legislative party polarization in the United States. Using bill-level data from Congress and three state legislatures, I show floor votes on bills lobbied by more non-profit interest groups are more polarized by party. The state legislative data demonstrate the robustness of the relationship between lobbying and polarization, showing it is not an artifact of party agenda control, salience, or bill content. Increased lobbying from these groups in recent years helps explain high levels of partisan polarization in Congress and an uneven pattern across the state legislatures.

The Effect of Risk on Price Responses to Unexpected Earnings

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 461-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis J. Chambers ◽  
Robert N. Freeman ◽  
Adam S. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Earnings Response Coefficients ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Unexpected Earnings ◽  
Earnings Response ◽  
Increasing Function

We investigate the possibility that earnings response coefficients (ERCs) are increasing in total risk (i.e., the sum of systematic and unsystematic risk). Our study extends the investigation of the role of risk in returns-earnings relations initiated by Easton and Zmijewski (1989) and Collins and Kothari (1989). Using the standard valuation model in which expected dividends are discounted at risk-adjusted rates, those studies show that ERCs should decline with systematic risk because the present value of a revision in expected dividends declines as systematic risk increases. We refer to this possibility as the “denominator effect” of risk on ERCs. In contrast, we posit a “numerator effect” of risk on ERCs. Specifically, we suggest that ERCs may increase with total risk because the sensitivity of dividend expectations to firm-specific news is an increasing function of risk. Our empirical work finds a robust positive relation between ERCs and total risk that is both economically and statistically significant; however, we find little empirical support for a negative relation between ERCs and systematic risk.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship Between the Use of a Mobile Peer-Support App and Self-Injury Outcomes: Longitudinal Mixed Methods Study

10.2196/21854 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e21854
Author(s):  
Kaylee Payne Kruzan ◽  
Janis Whitlock ◽  
Natalya N Bazarova
Keyword(s):  
Peer Support ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Online Forums ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Log Data ◽  
Self Injury ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Injury Outcomes ◽  
The Relationship

Background Many individuals who self-injure seek support and information through online communities and mobile peer-support apps. Although researchers have identified risks and benefits of participation, empirical work linking participation in these web-based spaces to self-injury behaviors and thoughts is limited. Objective This study aims to investigate the relationship between behavioral and linguistic traces on a mobile peer support app and self-injury outcomes. Methods Natural use data and web-based surveys (N=697) assessing self-injury outcomes were collected from 268 users (aged 13-38 years; median 19; 149/268, 55.6% female) of a mobile peer-support app for 4 months. Participants were identified as having posted self-injury content using an internal classifier. Natural log data was used to predict self-injury outcomes in a series of multilevel logistic and linear regressions. Results Greater engagement on a mobile peer-support app was associated with a decreased likelihood of self-injury thoughts (odds ratio [OR] 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.73) and fewer intentions to self-injure (b=−0.37, SE 0.09), whereas posting triggering content was associated with an increased likelihood of engaging in behaviors (OR 5.37, 95% CI 1.25-23.05) and having self-injury thoughts (OR 17.87, 95% CI 1.64-194.15). Moreover, viewing triggering content was related to both a greater ability to resist (b=1.39, SE 0.66) and a greater intention to self-injure (b=1.50, SE 0.06). Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to connect naturally occurring log data to survey data assessing self-injury outcomes over time. This work provides empirical support for the relationship between participation in online forums and self-injury outcomes, and it articulates mechanisms contributing to this relationship.

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