scholarly journals Estimating Spatial Preferences from Votes and Text

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
In Song Kim ◽  
John Londregan ◽  
Marc Ratkovic
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Leadership Roles ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Reliable Preference

We introduce a model that extends the standard vote choice model to encompass text. In our model, votes and speech are generated from a common set of underlying preference parameters. We estimate the parameters with a sparse Gaussian copula factor model that estimates the number of latent dimensions, is robust to outliers, and accounts for zero inflation in the data. To illustrate its workings, we apply our estimator to roll call votes and floor speech from recent sessions of the US Senate. We uncover two stable dimensions: one ideological and the other reflecting to Senators’ leadership roles. We then show how the method can leverage common speech in order to impute missing data, recovering reliable preference estimates for rank-and-file Senators given only leadership votes.

scholarly journals Simultaneous and sequential voting under general decision rules

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friedel Bolle
Keyword(s):  
Pure Strategy ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Subgame Perfect Equilibrium ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Perfect Equilibrium ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
General Rules ◽  
The Us ◽  
Sequential Voting ◽  
Us Senate

In an economic theory of voting, voters have positive or negative costs of voting in favor of a proposal and positive or negative benefits from an accepted proposal. When votes have equal weight then simultaneous voting mostly has a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium which is independent of benefits. Voting with respect to (arbitrarily small) costs alone, however, often results in voting against the ‘true majority’ . If voting is sequential as in the roll call votes of the US Senate then, in the unique subgame perfect equilibrium, the ‘true majority’ prevails. It is shown that the result for sequential voting holds also with different weights of voters (shareholders), with multiple necessary majorities (European Union decision-making), or even more general rules. Simultaneous voting in the general model has more differentiated results.

The Party or the Purse? Unequal Representation in the US Senate

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 (4) ◽  
pp. 917-940 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEFFREY R. LAX ◽  
JUSTIN H. PHILLIPS ◽  
ADAM ZELIZER
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Do So

Recent work on US policymaking argues that responsiveness to public opinion is distorted by money, in that the preferences of the rich matter much more than those of lower-income Americans. A second distortion—partisan biases in responsiveness—has been less well studied and is often ignored or downplayed in the literature on affluent influence. We are the first to evaluate, in tandem, these two potential distortions in representation. We do so using 49 Senate roll-call votes from 2001 to 2015. We find that affluent influence is overstated and itself contingent on partisanship—party trumps the purse when senators have to take sides. The poor get what they want more often from Democrats. The rich get what they want more often from Republicans, but only if Republican constituents side with the rich. Thus, partisanship induces, shapes, and constrains affluent influence.

scholarly journals Modelando Contágio Financeiro através de Copulas

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira ◽  
Ricardo Pires De Souza Santos
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This article aims to test the hypothesis of contagion between the indices of financial markets from the United States into Brazil, Japan and the UK for the 2000 to 2009 period. Time varying copulas were used to capture the impact of the sub-prime crisis in the dependence between markets. The implemented model was an ARMA(1,0) st-ARCH(1,2) to the marginal distributions and Normal and Joe-Clayton (SJC) copulas for the joint distribution. The results obtained allow to conclude that both for the gaussian copula and for the SJC copula there is evidence of contagion between the US market and the Brazilian market. For the other two markets, the UK and Japan, the evidence of the presence of contagion between these markets and the US has not been sufficiently clear in both copula.

Long-Term Consequences of Election Results

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Fowler ◽  
Andrew B. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Over Time

Voters in US elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two phenomena? Combining electoral and legislative roll-call data in a dynamic regression discontinuity design, this study assesses the long-term consequences of election results for representation. Across the US House, the US Senate and state legislatures, the effects of ‘coin-flip’ elections persist for at least a decade in all settings, and for as long as three decades in some. Further results suggest that elected officials do not adapt their roll-call voting to their districts’ preferences over time, and that voters do not systematically respond by replacing incumbents.

Factorial Structure of the Therapist Adherence Measure-Revised (TAM-R) Within Multisystemic Therapy

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-431
Author(s):  
Aurelie M. C. Lange ◽  
Marc J. M. H. Delsing ◽  
Ron H. J. Scholte ◽  
Rachel E. A. van der Rijken
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Factor Structure ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Multisystemic Therapy ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Adherence Measure ◽  
Therapist Adherence ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
The Us

Abstract. The Therapist Adherence Measure (TAM-R) is a central assessment within the quality-assurance system of Multisystemic Therapy (MST). Studies into the validity and reliability of the TAM in the US have found varying numbers of latent factors. The current study aimed to reexamine its factor structure using two independent samples of families participating in MST in the Netherlands. The factor structure was explored using an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) in Sample 1 ( N = 580). This resulted in a two-factor solution. The factors were labeled “therapist adherence” and “client–therapist alliance.” Four cross-loading items were dropped. Reliability of the resulting factors was good. This two-factor model showed good model fit in a subsequent Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) in Sample 2 ( N = 723). The current finding of an alliance component corroborates previous studies and fits with the focus of the MST treatment model on creating engagement.

Factor Structure of the Hellenic WISC-III for Children with Learning Disabilities

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (03) ◽  
pp. 20445-20451
Author(s):  
Adam A ◽  
Kiosseoglou G ◽  
Abatzoglou G ◽  
Papaligoura Z.
Keyword(s):  
Learning Disabilities ◽  
Factor Structure ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Clinical Value ◽  
Reasoning Abilities ◽  
Picture Arrangement ◽  
Factorial Model ◽  
Verbal Subtest ◽  
Two Factors

The present research aims to examine the factor structure of the Hellenic WISC-III in a sample of 50 children with learning disabilities. The results show the existence of a factorial model with two factors, one aggregating the Comprehension verbal subtest with four performance subtests and the other the Picture Arrangement performance subtest with four verbal subtests. This two-factor model includes loadings in two factors that relate to the sequencing abilities and the verbal reasoning abilities of children. These findings assert the clinical value of the intelligence evaluation in these children.

Epilogue

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
José van
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Information Age ◽  
The Other ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
The Us ◽  
Autocratic Regime ◽  
Digital Strategy ◽  
National Governments ◽  
State Interference

The epilogue sketches a few scenarios on potential geopolitical consequences of the global paradigm shift toward multiple online platform “spheres.” Currently, the neoliberal US-based platform ecosystem dominates. This ecosystem revolves around the promotion of individualism and minimal state interference, leaving checks and balances to the market. On the other end of the ideological spectrum is the Chinese ecosystem, in which the autocratic regime controls the platform ecosystem via regulated censorship of tech corporations. Squeezed between the US and the Chinese models is the European Union, whose member states neither own nor operate any major platforms in either ecosystem. For European democracies to survive in the information age, its cities, national governments, and supranational legislature need to collaborate on a blueprint for a common digital strategy toward markets and public sectors.

Epidemics

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel K. Cohn, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Fifth Century ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fundamental Aspect ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Psychological Consequences ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Race Ethnicity

This book challenges a dominant hypothesis in the study of epidemics. From an interdisciplinary array of scholars, a consensus has emerged: invariably, epidemics in past times provoked class hatred, blame of the ‘other’, or victimization of the diseases’ victims. It is also claimed that when diseases were mysterious, without cures or preventive measures, they more readily provoked ‘sinister connotations’. The evidence for these assumptions, however, comes from a handful of examples—the Black Death, the Great Pox at the end of the sixteenth century, cholera riots of the 1830s, and AIDS, centred almost exclusively on the US experience. By investigating thousands of descriptions of epidemics, reaching back before the fifth-century BCE Plague of Athens to the eruption of Ebola in 2014, this study traces epidemics’ socio-psychological consequences across time and discovers a radically different picture. First, scholars, especially post-AIDS, have missed a fundamental aspect of the history of epidemics: their remarkable power to unify societies across class, race, ethnicity, and religion, spurring self-sacrifice and compassion. Second, hatred and violence cannot be relegated to a time when diseases were mysterious, before the ‘laboratory revolution’ of the late nineteenth century: in fact, modernity was the great incubator of a disease–hate nexus. Third, even with diseases that have tended to provoke hatred, such as smallpox, poliomyelitis, plague, and cholera, blaming ‘the other’ or victimizing disease bearers has been rare. Instead, the history of epidemics and their socio-psychological consequences has been richer and more varied than scholars and public intellectuals have heretofore allowed.

scholarly journals Retirement Preparedness: How Important Is Being Financially Literate?

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 445-445
Author(s):  
Mengya Wang ◽  
Suzanne Bartholomae
Keyword(s):  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Retirement Planning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Lower Odds ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Retirement Preparedness ◽  
The Us ◽  
Risk Takers ◽  
Policies And Programs

Abstract Financial security in retirement is a major concern for many Americans. Numerous studies document that Americans are not prepared for retirement, with financial illiteracy cited as one reason Americans fail to plan. Employing data from the 2018 National Financial Capability Study (N=27,091), this study investigates actual financial literacy (AFL) and perceived financial literacy (PFL) and how combinations of this measure influences retirement planning, and varies based on years from retirement. This study found relatively low financial literacy and retirement preparedness levels among the US sample, even for those pre-retirees ages 55 to 64. Individually, PFL and AFL increased as one approached retirement. When combined, adults nearing retirement (55 to 64) comprised the greatest proportion of the high AFL and high PFL (29.9%) group compared to adults 20 years or more from retirement (18-44) who largely made up the low AFL and PFL (48%) group. Based on a logistic regression, adults closest to retirement (ages 55 to 64) are more likely to be planning compared to the other groups, as are adults who were financially confident, risk takers, highly educated, males, and white. Compared to adults with high AFL and high PFL, adults with low AFL and low PFL, or a combination (low PFL and high AFL, high PFL and low AFL) have lower odds of preparing for retirement. Both PFL and AFL influences retirement planning, and PFL may be as important as AFL. Our highlight the importance of policies and programs to support Americans with retirement planning.

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