Ephemeral species in the fossil record? Synchronous coupling of macroevolutionary dynamics in mid-Paleozoic zooplankton

Paleobiology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135
Author(s):  
James S. Crampton ◽  
Roger A. Cooper ◽  
Michael Foote ◽  
Peter M. Sadler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Species ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Sampling Bias ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Ephemeral Species ◽  
Lineage Diversity

AbstractWe document a positive and strong correlation between speciation and extinction rates in the Paleozoic zooplankton graptoloid clade, between 481 and 419 Ma. This correlation has a magnitude of ~0.35–0.45 and manifests at a temporal resolution of <50 kyr and, for part of our data set, <25 kyr. It cannot be explained as an artifact of the method used to measure rates, sampling bias, bias resulting from construction of the time series, autocorrelation, underestimation of species durations, or undetected phyletic evolution. Correlations are approximately equal during the Ordovician and Silurian, despite the very different speciation and extinction regimes prevailing during these two periods, and correlation is strongest in the shortest-lived cohorts of species.We infer that this correlation reflects approximately synchronous coupling of speciation and extinction in the graptoloids on timescales of a few tens of thousands of years. Almost half of graptoloid species in our data set have durations of <0.5 Myr, and previous studies have demonstrated that, during times of background extinction, short-lived species were selectively targeted by extinction. These observations may be consistent with the model of ephemeral speciation, whereby new species are inferred to form constantly and at high rate, but most of them disappear rapidly through extinction or reabsorption into the ancestral lineage. Diversity dependence with a lag of ~1 Myr, also documented elsewhere, may reflect a subsequent and relatively slow, competitive dynamic that governed those species that dispersed beyond their originating water mass and escaped the ephemeral species filter.

The Ongoing Central European Drought Observed with GRACE Follow-On

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Boergens ◽  
Andreas Güntner ◽  
Henryk Dobslaw ◽  
Christoph Dahle
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Data Set

&lt;p class=&quot;western&quot;&gt;In the last three years Central Europe experienced an ongoing severe drought. With the data of the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission we are able to quantify the water deficit of these years. Since May 2018 GRACE-FO continues the observations of GRACE (2002-2017) allowing to compare the most recent drought with earlier droughts in 2003 and 2015.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=&quot;western&quot;&gt;In July 2019 the water mass deficit in Central Europe amounted to -154 Gt, which has been the largest deficit in the whole GRACE and GRACE-FO time series. In November 2018 the deficit reached -138 Gt and in June 2020 -147 Gt. Comparing these deficits to the mean annual water storage variation of 162 Gt shows the severity of the ongoing drought. With such a water mass deficit, a fast recovery within one year cannot be expected. In comparison to this, the droughts of 2003 with a deficit of -55 Gt and of 2015 with a deficit of -111 Gt were less severe.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=&quot;western&quot;&gt;The GRACE and GRACE-FO total water storage data set also allows for analysing spatio-temporal drought patterns. In 2018 the drought was centred in in the South-West of Germany and neighbouring countries while parts of Poland were hardly affected by the drought. In 2018 the drought reached its largest extent only in late autumn. However, the exact onset of drought is not determinable due to missing data between July and October. Both in 2019 and 2020 the centre of the drought is located further East and the months with the largest deficit were July and June, respectively. Also in the later years, the drought was more evenly spread out over the whole of Central Europe.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=&quot;western&quot;&gt;Additionally, we compared the GRACE and GRACE-FO data to an external soil moisture index and to surface water drought indices for Lake Constance and Lake M&amp;#252;ritz. To this end, we derive a drought index from the GRACE and GRACE-FO mass anomalies. For the whole time series, the GRACE drought index shows a high congruency to the soil moisture drought index. Overall, the surface water drought index also fits well together with the GRACE drought index. However, the comparison reveals the influence of regional effects on surface waters not observable with GRACE and GRACE-FO.&lt;/p&gt;

Tectonic Deformation and Surface Processes of the Tibetan Plateau Constrained by Time Series Analysis of Sentinel-1 InSAR Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Zinke ◽  
Gilles Peltzer ◽  
Eric Fielding ◽  
Simran Sangha ◽  
David Bekaert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Surface Processes ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temporal Sampling

&lt;p&gt;We quantify deformation patterns resulting from tectonic motions and surface processes across the central Tibetan Plateau (29&amp;#8211;45&amp;#186;N, 83&amp;#8211;92&amp;#186;E) since late 2014 using ascending and descending passes of the Sentinel-1A and -1B radar satellites. The broad spatial extent of these data (&gt; 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;), fine spatial resolution (originally 90 m pixels, resampled to 270 m pixels), and high rate of temporal sampling (12&amp;#8211;24-day orbit repeat time) offer unprecedented resolution of surface deformation in space and time. To process such an extensive data set &amp;#8211; including more than 100 dates and 300 interferograms per track thus far &amp;#8211; we leverage the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) standardized interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) products and toolbox. We construct time series of surface deformation constrained from our Sentinel-1 interferograms using the small baseline subset approach implemented by the Miami InSAR time series software in Python (MintPy). Our preliminary results from three Sentinel-1 orbits (two descending and one ascending; each comprising 10 frames along track) allow us to quantify deformation in the satellite lines of sight. Combinations of ascending and descending track measurements are used to approximate east-west and vertical ground velocities. The resulting velocity fields will provide a more complete and accurate picture of interseismic strain accumulation rates across active faults in the region such as the Altyn Tagh and Kunlun faults, and allow us to study surface processes such as permafrost active layer dynamics and isostatic adjustment due to lake level changes in unparalleled scope and detail.&lt;/p&gt;

Origination and extinction components of taxonomic diversity: General problems

Paleobiology ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 26 (S4) ◽  
pp. 74-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Foote
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Taxonomic Diversity ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Interval Length ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Single Interval

Mathematical modeling of cladogenesis and fossil preservation is used to explore the expected behavior of commonly used measures of taxonomic diversity and taxonomic rates with respect to interval length, quality of preservation, position of interval in a stratigraphic succession, and taxonomic rates themselves. Particular attention is focused on the independent estimation of origination and extinction rates. Modeling supports intuitive and empirical arguments that single-interval taxa, being especially sensitive to variation in preservation and interval length, produce many undesirable distortions of the fossil record. It may generally be preferable to base diversity and rate measures on estimated numbers of taxa extant at single points in time rather than to adjust conventional interval-based measures by discarding single-interval taxa.A combination of modeling and empirical analysis of fossil genera supports two major trends in marine animal evolution. (1) The Phanerozoic decline in taxonomic rates is unlikely to be an artifact of secular improvement in the quality of the fossil record, a point that has been argued before on different grounds. (2) The post-Paleozoic rise in diversity may be exaggerated by the essentially complete knowledge of the living fauna, but this bias is not the principal cause of the pattern. The pattern may partly reflect a secular increase in preservation nevertheless.Apparent temporal variation in taxonomic rates can be produced artificially by variation in preservation rate. Some empirical arguments suggest, however, that much of the short-term variation in taxonomic rates observed in the fossil record is real. (1) For marine animals as a whole, the quality of the fossil record of a higher taxon is not a good predictor of its apparent variability in taxonomic rates. (2) For a sample data set covering a cross-section of higher taxa in the Ordovician, most of the apparent variation in origination and extinction rates is not statistically attributable to independently measured variation in preservation rates. (3) Previous work has shown that standardized sampling to remove effects of variable preservation and sampling yields abundant temporal variation in estimated taxonomic rates. While modeling suggests which rate measures are likely to be most accurate in principle, the question of how best to capture true variation in taxonomic rates remains open.

Integrated Quantitative Analysis of the Phosphoproteome and Transcriptome in Tamoxifen-resistant Breast Cancer*

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lungwani Muungo
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
High Rate ◽  
System Level ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Transcriptome Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Reporter Assays ◽  
Treated Breast ◽  
Mcf 7 ◽  
Resistant Cells

Quantitative phosphoproteome and transcriptome analysisof ligand-stimulated MCF-7 human breast cancer cells wasperformed to understand the mechanisms of tamoxifen resistanceat a system level. Phosphoproteome data revealed thatWT cells were more enriched with phospho-proteins thantamoxifen-resistant cells after stimulation with ligands.Surprisingly, decreased phosphorylation after ligand perturbationwas more common than increased phosphorylation.In particular, 17?-estradiol induced down-regulation inWT cells at a very high rate. 17?-Estradiol and the ErbBligand heregulin induced almost equal numbers of up-regulatedphospho-proteins in WT cells. Pathway and motifactivity analyses using transcriptome data additionallysuggested that deregulated activation of GSK3? (glycogensynthasekinase 3?) and MAPK1/3 signaling might be associatedwith altered activation of cAMP-responsive elementbindingprotein and AP-1 transcription factors intamoxifen-resistant cells, and this hypothesis was validatedby reporter assays. An examination of clinical samples revealedthat inhibitory phosphorylation of GSK3? at serine 9was significantly lower in tamoxifen-treated breast cancerpatients that eventually had relapses, implying that activationof GSK3? may be associated with the tamoxifen-resistantphenotype. Thus, the combined phosphoproteomeand transcriptome data set analyses revealed distinct signal

EXTREME VALUES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-PERIOD PHENOMENA OCCURRED DURING 1960-2015 IN THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC OCEAN

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Igor Malikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Colombian Pacific

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA), in four coastal hydrographic stations of Colombian Pacific Ocean, were analyzed. The selected hydrographic stations were: Tumaco (1°48'N-78°45'W), Gorgona island (2°58'N-78°11'W), Solano Bay (6°13'N-77°24'W) and Malpelo island (4°0'N-81°36'W). SSTA time series for 1960-2015 were calculated from monthly Sea Surface Temperature obtained from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). SSTA time series, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), Arctic Oscillation index (AO) and sunspots number (associated to solar activity), were compared. It was found that the SSTA absolute minimum has occurred in Tumaco (-3.93°C) in March 2009, in Gorgona (-3.71°C) in October 2007, in Solano Bay (-4.23°C) in April 2014 and Malpelo (-4.21°C) in December 2005. The SSTA absolute maximum was observed in Tumaco (3.45°C) in January 2002, in Gorgona (5.01°C) in July 1978, in Solano Bay (5.27°C) in March 1998 and Malpelo (3.64°C) in July 2015. A high correlation between SST and ONI in large part of study period, followed by a good correlation with PDO, was identified. The AO and SSTA have showed an inverse relationship in some periods. Solar Cycle has showed to be a modulator of behavior of SSTA in the selected stations. It was determined that extreme values of SST are related to the analyzed large scale oscillations.

The Lyapunov Exponent Variance of an Electronic Manufacturing Enterprise’s Daily Qualified Rate Time Series by Improved Small Data Sets Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 271-277
Author(s):  
Zhu Ping Gong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Chaotic Time Series ◽  
Quality System ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Small Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electronic Manufacturing ◽  
Small Data Set

Small data set approach is used for the estimation of Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE). Primarily, the mean period drawback of Small data set was corrected. On this base, the LLEs of daily qualified rate time series of HZ, an electronic manufacturing enterprise, were estimated and all positive LLEs were taken which indicate that this time series is a chaotic time series and the corresponding produce process is a chaotic process. The variance of the LLEs revealed the struggle between the divergence nature of quality system and quality control effort. LLEs showed sharp increase in getting worse quality level coincide with the company shutdown. HZ’s daily qualified rate, a chaotic time series, shows us the predictable nature of quality system in a short-run.

New determinations of tides on the north-western Ross Ice Shelf

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Richard D. Ray ◽  
Kristine M. Larson ◽  
Bruce J. Haines
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
The North ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
North Western

Abstract New determinations of ocean tides are extracted from high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions at nine stations sitting on the Ross Ice Shelf. Five are multi-year time series. Three older time series are only 2–3 weeks long. These are not ideal, but they are still useful because they provide the only in situ tide observations in that sector of the ice shelf. The long tide-gauge observations from Scott Base and Cape Roberts are also reanalysed. They allow determination of some previously neglected tidal phenomena in this region, such as third-degree tides, and they provide context for analysis of the shorter datasets. The semidiurnal tides are small at all sites, yet M2 undergoes a clear seasonal cycle, which was first noted by Sir George Darwin while studying measurements from the Discovery expedition. Darwin saw a much larger modulation than we observe, and we consider possible explanations - instrumental or climatic - for this difference.

scholarly journals The Impact of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine with One Dose in Brazil: A Retrospective Time-Series

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Ana Luiza Bierrenbach ◽  
Yoonyoung Choi ◽  
Paula de Mendonça Batista ◽  
Fernando Brandão Serra ◽  
Cintia Irene Parellada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Hepatitis A ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Reduction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vaccination Period

Background: In 2014, a recommended one-dose of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine was included in the Brazilian National Immunization Program targeting children 12–24 months. This decision addressed the low to intermediate endemicity status of hepatitis A across Brazil and the high rate of infection in children and adolescents between 5 and 19 years old. The aim of the study was to conduct a time-series analysis on hepatitis A incidence across age groups and to assess the hepatitis A distribution throughout Brazilian geographic regions. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was performed to assess hepatitis A incidence rates before (2010–2013) and after (2015–2018) hepatitis A vaccine program implementation. The time-series analysis was stratified by age groups while a secondary analysis examined geographic distribution of hepatitis A cases. Results: Overall incidence of hepatitis A decreased from 3.19/100.000 in the pre-vaccine period to 0.87/100.000 (p = 0.022) post-vaccine introduction. Incidence rate reduction was higher among children aged 1-4 years old, with an annual reduction of 67.6% in the post-vaccination period against a 7.7% annual reduction in the pre-vaccination period (p < 0.001). Between 2015 and 2018, the vaccination program prevented 14,468 hepatitis A cases. Conclusion: Our study highlighted the positive impact of a recommended one-dose inactivated hepatitis A vaccine for 1–4-years-old in controlling hepatitis A at national level.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Temporal Convolution with Attention

AI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-70
Author(s):  
Wei Ming Tan ◽  
T. Hui Teo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Form Complex ◽  
Useful Life

Prognostic techniques attempt to predict the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a subsystem or a component. Such techniques often use sensor data which are periodically measured and recorded into a time series data set. Such multivariate data sets form complex and non-linear inter-dependencies through recorded time steps and between sensors. Many current existing algorithms for prognostic purposes starts to explore Deep Neural Network (DNN) and its effectiveness in the field. Although Deep Learning (DL) techniques outperform the traditional prognostic algorithms, the networks are generally complex to deploy or train. This paper proposes a Multi-variable Time Series (MTS) focused approach to prognostics that implements a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with attention mechanism. The convolution filters work to extract the abstract temporal patterns from the multiple time series, while the attention mechanisms review the information across the time axis and select the relevant information. The results suggest that the proposed method not only produces a superior accuracy of RUL estimation but it also trains many folds faster than the reported works. The superiority of deploying the network is also demonstrated on a lightweight hardware platform by not just being much compact, but also more efficient for the resource restricted environment.

scholarly journals AB1138 ASSESSMENT OF FLUORESCENCE-OPTICAL IMAGING TECHNIQUE OF THE HANDS IN PSORIASIS AND PSORIATIC PATIENTS USING AN INNOVATIVE OBJECTIVE METHOD

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1859.2-1859
Author(s):  
L. Zerweck ◽  
U. Henkemeier ◽  
P. H. Nguyen ◽  
T. Rossmanith ◽  
A. Pippow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Optical Imaging ◽  
Skin Diseases ◽  
Imaging Biomarkers ◽  
Research Support ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Inflammatory Skin Diseases ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fluorescence Optical Imaging

Background:Psoriasis (Pso) is one of the most common chronic inflammatory skin diseases in Europe. Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is closely associated to Pso whereas the skin manifestation appears usually years before PsA-related symptoms emerge. Up to 30% of Pso patients develop PsA, biomarkers for its early detection are of major importance. In early PsA, changes in synovial vascularisation appear first. Imaging biomarkers for detection of changes in vascularisation might be useful for early detection of musculoskeletal disease. Fluorescence-optical imaging (FOI) is a new method to detect changes in microvascularisation of the hands. Each collected data set of the FOI system contains 360 images representing a time progression of the indocyanine green (ICG) distribution.Objectives:To evaluate a reader-independent assessment method for evaluation of FOI in patients with PsO and PsA.Methods:A prospective study including patients with dermatological confirmed skin PsO was performed. 411 patients were included from German dermatology units without PsA diagnosis but potential risk for its development. Clinical examination (CE) was performed by a qualified rheumatologist. For a reader independent evaluation of the FOI images an objective joint-based scoring method was developed. For this method, the joint areas are defined by image segmentation and scored based on generated heatmaps. To calculate a heatmap indicating conspicuous joints from a data set containing 360 images, each pixel is converted to a time series containing 360 values. From this time series, three independent values (features) are extracted: amplitude, average value and maximal slope. Thus, each pixel is reduced to three different feature values. After the three features are determined for each pixel, k-means clustering is performed on each feature. The numbers of centroids (k) are set to 3, 5, 7 and 9. 12 heatmaps (3 features à 4 ks) are calculated, which results in 12 scores for each joint as well. The clusters are then sorted dependent on their centroid value and coloured accordingly to a predefined heatmap colour palette. To finally score each joint, the pixels in the segmented joint area and their assigned cluster are summed and normalized by the area’s amount of pixels and k.Results:271 of the patients were investigated by the newly developed method and compared with the CE scoring. 6426 joints were labeled as healthy whereas 1162 joints were either labeled as swollen, tender or both. The result over all investigated patients for k = 9 is summed in table 1. It is observable that every average and median healthy value is lower than the corresponding affected value.Table 1.Resulting scores for k = 9 for all 271 patients.Feature Statistic valueAmplitudeMeanSlopeHealthyAffectedHealthyAffectedHealthyAffectedAverage0.5030.5280.4860.5090.3950.414Median0.4960.5320.4820.5050.3890.415Conclusion:FOI is an innovative method that detects early changes in vascularization of the hands. So, this method can be useful in early detection of arthritis especially in risk populations such as PsO patients. The results of the objective scoring method show that a clear distinction between healthy and affected joints is possible with the average scores as well as the median values. However, if the range of the scores is considered, the overlap between healthy and affected is not neglectable. Thus, the current scoring system can be used as an indicator but not as a single classification marker. Nevertheless, the research at hand has shown the expected outcome and motivates further development on the heatmap approach.Disclosure of Interests:Lukas Zerweck: None declared, Ulf Henkemeier: None declared, Phuong-Ha Nguyen: None declared, Tanja Rossmanith Grant/research support from: Janssen, BMS, LEO, Pfizer, Andreas Pippow: None declared, Harald Burkhardt Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Roche, Abbvie, Consultant of: Sanofi, Pfizer, Roche, Abbvie, Boehringer Ingelheim, UCB, Eli Lilly, Chugai, Bristol Myer Scripps, Janssen, and Novartis, Speakers bureau: Sanofi, Pfizer, Roche, Abbvie, Boehringer Ingelheim, UCB, Eli Lilly, Chugai, Bristol Myer Scripps, Janssen, and Novartis, Frank Behrens Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Janssen, Chugai, Celgene, Lilly and Roche, Consultant of: Pfizer, AbbVie, Sanofi, Lilly, Novartis, Genzyme, Boehringer, Janssen, MSD, Celgene, Roche and Chugai, Michaela Köhm Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Janssen, BMS, LEO, Consultant of: BMS, Pfizer, Speakers bureau: Pfizer, BMS, Janssen, Novartis

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