scholarly journals The Impact of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine with One Dose in Brazil: A Retrospective Time-Series

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Ana Luiza Bierrenbach ◽  
Yoonyoung Choi ◽  
Paula de Mendonça Batista ◽  
Fernando Brandão Serra ◽  
Cintia Irene Parellada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Hepatitis A ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Reduction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vaccination Period

Background: In 2014, a recommended one-dose of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine was included in the Brazilian National Immunization Program targeting children 12–24 months. This decision addressed the low to intermediate endemicity status of hepatitis A across Brazil and the high rate of infection in children and adolescents between 5 and 19 years old. The aim of the study was to conduct a time-series analysis on hepatitis A incidence across age groups and to assess the hepatitis A distribution throughout Brazilian geographic regions. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was performed to assess hepatitis A incidence rates before (2010–2013) and after (2015–2018) hepatitis A vaccine program implementation. The time-series analysis was stratified by age groups while a secondary analysis examined geographic distribution of hepatitis A cases. Results: Overall incidence of hepatitis A decreased from 3.19/100.000 in the pre-vaccine period to 0.87/100.000 (p = 0.022) post-vaccine introduction. Incidence rate reduction was higher among children aged 1-4 years old, with an annual reduction of 67.6% in the post-vaccination period against a 7.7% annual reduction in the pre-vaccination period (p < 0.001). Between 2015 and 2018, the vaccination program prevented 14,468 hepatitis A cases. Conclusion: Our study highlighted the positive impact of a recommended one-dose inactivated hepatitis A vaccine for 1–4-years-old in controlling hepatitis A at national level.

scholarly journals 1392. Evaluation of the Impact of a Single-dose Hepatitis A Vaccination in Brazil: a time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S705-S706
Author(s):  
Ana Luiza Bierrenbach ◽  
Yoonyoung Choi ◽  
Paula M Batista ◽  
Fernando Serra ◽  
Cintia Parellada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Cost Reduction ◽  
Hepatitis A ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Outpatient Procedures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Target Children ◽  
Research Grant

Abstract Background Brazil has transitioned from an intermediate to low hepatitis A virus endemic country, increasing the risk of severe Hepatitis A (HepA) disease. To control transmission, the HepA vaccine, MSD, was introduced in the National Childhood Immunization Program (NIP) in 2014 for children aged 12-24 months and extended to children under 5 years old in 2017. We evaluated the impact of the vaccination on the HepA incidence, associated healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and costs. Methods We conducted an observational, retrospective study using Brazilian National Public Health Data (DATASUS). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted for incidence rates (IR) of laboratory- or clinically-confirmed Hep A cases. Using a negative binomial regression model, we assessed changes in annual HepA IR between pre- (2010-2013) and post- (2015-2018) HepA vaccination periods and compared to predicted counterfactual rates without HepA vaccination. We compared HCRU and cost of Hep A-associated hospitalizations and outpatient procedures between pre- and post- HepA vaccination periods. Results Between 2010 and 2018, 32,295 Hep A cases occurred across all ages. Among the NIP target children aged 1-4 years, HepA vaccination was associated with an immediate HepA IR decrease (-52,5% of level change) and with a decrease in slope (-7.7% vs -67.6% per year for pre- and post-periods, respectively, Figure 1). We observed a similar trend in non- HepA vaccination target children aged 5-14 years with -57.1% of level change and slope change from -3.4% (pre- HepA vaccination) to -53.7% (post- HepA vaccination) per year (Table 1). Across all age groups, 14,468 Hep A cases were averted when compared to predicted counterfactual rates (Table 2). Overall, HepA-related hospitalization rate dropped 64% after NIP introduction of vaccination resulting in a cost reduction of 55%. The total number of outpatient procedures claimed among HepA-diagnosed patients reduced 18% with 42% cost reduction. Figure 1: time-series analyses of Hepatitis A incidence rate (IR) for NIP target population. Monthly number of hepatitis A cases observed over the study period (black line). Predicted trend based on the pre- HepA vaccination (red line) and post- HepA vaccination (blue line) monthly cases Table 1: Time-series analysis of the impact of the hepatitis A vaccination on the incidence rate level of change, according to age group Table 2: Number of observed, predicted counterfactual, and averted hepatitis A cases in the post- HepA vaccination period (2015-2018), according to age group. Conclusion In Brazil, the single-dose hepatitis A vaccine childhood program effectively reduced the Hepatitis A incidence, HCRU and associated-costs in vaccinated and in some non-vaccinated age groups. Disclosures Ana Luiza Bierrenbach, MD, MSc, PhD, MSD Brazil (Grant/Research Support, Scientific Research Study Investigator, Research Grant or Support) Yoonyoung Choi, PhD, MS, RPh, Merck (Employee) Paula M. Batista, BSc, MSD Brazil (Employee) Fernando Serra, MD, MSD Brazil (Employee) Cintia Parellada, MD, PhD, MSD Brazil (Employee) Guilherme Julian, BSc, MSc, IQVIA (Employee)MSD (Consultant, Research Grant or Support) Karina Nakajima, BSc, PhD, IQVIA (Employee)MSD (Consultant, Research Grant or Support) Thais Moreira, MD, MSc, MSD Brazil (Employee)

scholarly journals Impact of low and no alcohol beers on purchases of alcohol: interrupted time series analysis of British household shopping data, 2015–2018

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Anderson ◽  
Eva Jané Llopis ◽  
Amy O’Donnell ◽  
Jakob Manthey ◽  
Jürgen Rehm
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Alcohol

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of new low and no alcohol beers and reformulated beers in Great Britain on household purchases of grams of alcohol.DesignInterrupted time series analysis.SettingPurchase data from Kantar Worldpanel’s household shopping panel for 2015–2018.Participants64 286 British households.InterventionsIntroduction of new no and low alcohol beers during 2017–2018 and reformulation of existing beers to contain less alcohol during 2018.Main outcome measuresAverage alcoholic strength of beer and number of grams of alcohol purchased by households.ResultsAs assessed by British household purchase data, 46 new low and no alcohol beer products were introduced during 2015–2018, with a step-jump in volume purchased occurring at the beginning of March 2017 (event 1). During 2015–2018, 33 beer products were reformulated to contain less alcohol, with a step-jump in volume purchased occurring during mid-March 2018 (event 2). Interrupted time series analyses found a combined associated impact of both events with relative reductions of alcohol by volume of beer between 1.2% and 2.3%; purchases of grams of alcohol within beer between 7.1% and 10.2%; and purchases of grams of alcohol as a whole between 2.6% and 3.9%. The reductions were greater for reformulation than for the introduction of new low and no alcohol products. Reductions were independently higher for younger age groups of shoppers and for households that bought the most alcohol.ConclusionsEven though the events were associated with significant beneficial changes, the volume of purchases of new low and no alcohol beer products (2.6% of the volume of all beers purchased during 2018) and of new reformulated beer products (6.9% of the volume of all beers purchased during 2018) was very small. This indicates that there are future opportunities to increase the volume of such products so as to reduce the harm done by alcohol.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

scholarly journals Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanja Charles ◽  
Matthias Eckardt ◽  
Basel Karo ◽  
Walter Haas ◽  
Stefan Kröger
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Pulmonary Tb ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Site ◽  
Extra Pulmonary

Abstract Background Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been found in different parts of the world, showing a peak in spring/summer and a trough in autumn/winter. The evidence is less clear which factors drive seasonality. It was our aim to identify and evaluate seasonality in the notifications of TB in Germany, additionally investigating the possible variance of seasonality by disease site, sex and age group. Methods We conducted an integer-valued time series analysis using national surveillance data. We analysed the reported monthly numbers of started treatments between 2004 and 2014 for all notified TB cases and stratified by disease site, sex and age group. Results We detected seasonality in the extra-pulmonary TB cases (N = 11,219), with peaks in late spring/summer and troughs in fall/winter. For all TB notifications together (N = 51,090) and for pulmonary TB only (N = 39,714) we did not find a distinct seasonality. Additional stratified analyses did not reveal any clear differences between age groups, the sexes, or between active and passive case finding. Conclusion We found seasonality in extra-pulmonary TB only, indicating that seasonality of disease onset might be specific to the disease site. This could point towards differences in disease progression between the different clinical disease manifestations. Sex appears not to be an important driver of seasonality, whereas the role of age remains unclear as this could not be sufficiently investigated.

scholarly journals An interrupted time series analysis of the lockdown policies in India: a national-level analysis of COVID-19 incidence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winter M Thayer ◽  
Md Zabir Hasan ◽  
Prithvi Sankhla ◽  
Shivam Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
National Level ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Series Analysis

Abstract India implemented a national mandatory lockdown policy (Lockdown 1.0) on 24 March 2020 in response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The policy was revised in three subsequent stages (Lockdown 2.0–4.0 between 15 April to 18 May 2020), and restrictions were lifted (Unlockdown 1.0) on 1 June 2020. This study evaluated the effect of lockdown policy on the COVID-19 incidence rate at the national level to inform policy response for this and future pandemics. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with a segmented regression model using publicly available data on daily reported new COVID-19 cases between 2 March 2020 and 1 September 2020. National-level data from Google Community Mobility Reports during this timeframe were also used in model development and robustness checks. Results showed an 8% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 6–9%] reduction in the change in incidence rate per day after Lockdown 1.0 compared to prior to the Lockdown order, with an additional reduction of 3% (95% CI = 2–3%) after Lockdown 4.0, suggesting an 11% (95% CI = 9–12%) reduction in the change in COVID-19 incidence after Lockdown 4.0 compared to the period before Lockdown 1.0. Uptake of the lockdown policy is indicated by decreased mobility and attenuation of the increasing incidence of COVID-19. The increasing rate of incident case reports in India was attenuated after the lockdown policy was implemented compared to before, and this reduction was maintained after the restrictions were eased, suggesting that the policy helped to ‘flatten the curve’ and buy additional time for pandemic preparedness, response and recovery.

Analyses and anticipating the future trend of accidents in an electricity distribution company of Iran: A time series analysis

Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Shirin Nasrollah Nejhad ◽  
Tayebeh Ilaghinezhad Bardsiri ◽  
Maryam feiz arefi ◽  
Amin babaei poya ◽  
Ehsan mazloumi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Occupational Injuries ◽  
Model Management ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Electricity Distribution ◽  
Temporary Workers ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Future ◽  
Distribution Company

BACKGROUND: Many work-related fatalities happen every year in electricity distribution companies. This study was conducted to model accidents using the time series analysis and survey descriptive factors of injuries in an electricity distribution company in Tehran, Iran. METHODS: Data related to 2010 to 2017 were collected from the database of the safety department. Time Series and trend analysis were used for data analyzing and anticipating the accidents up to 2022. RESULT: Most of the accidents occurred in summer. Workers’ negligence was the reason for 75%of deaths. Employment type and type of injuries had a significant relationship (p <  0.05). CONCLUSION: The anticipating model indicated occupational injuries are going to have an increase in the future. A high rate of accidents in summer maybe because of the warm weather or insufficient skills in temporary workers. Temporary workers have no chance to work in a year like permanent workers, therefore acquisition experiences may be less in them. Based on the estimating model, Management should pay attention to those sectors of the company where most of the risky activities take place. Also, training programs and using personal protective equipment can help to protect workers in hazardous conditions.

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