Esoteric Reliabilism

Episteme ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Kristoffer Ahlstrom-Vij
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
Epistemic Norms ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Epistemic Consequentialism

Abstract Survey data suggest that many philosophers are reliabilists, in believing that beliefs are justified iff produced by a reliable process. This is bad news if reliabilism is true. Empirical results suggest that a commitment to reliable belief-formation leads to overconfident second-guessing of reliable heuristics. Hence, a widespread belief in reliabilism is likely to be epistemically detrimental by the reliabilist's own standard. The solution is a form of two-level epistemic consequentialism, where an esoteric commitment to reliabilism will be appropriate for an enlightened few, while a form of epistemic fetishism – on which some heuristics are treated as fundamental epistemic norms – is appropriate for the rest of us.

scholarly journals A Guideline and Cautionary Note: How to Use the Belief Update Task Correctly

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tali Sharot ◽  
Neil Garrett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
Cautionary Note ◽  
Helpful Tool ◽  
Wide Range

In 2011 we published a paper showing that people update their beliefs to a greater extent in response to good news (e.g., learning that the likelihood of robbery is lower than expected) than bad news (e.g., learning it is lower than expected) (Sharot et al., 2011). This phenomenon, which can lead to increased optimistic beliefs, is absent in depression. Since then, our belief update task has been used by many others to test a wide range of questions related to belief formation and optimism. Most of these studies are rigorous and well conducted. However, a small number of researchers have used the task inappropriately, inserting new confounds and failing to control for other potential ones. This has resulted in the report of false findings which have muddied the literature and caused confusion. Given these incidents and the enthusiasm for using the task across different disciplines, the need for guidelines on how to use the belief update task correctly has become apparent. The belief update task can be a helpful tool in studying beliefs in domains ranging from climate change to health, but like any other task it must be used properly if valid conclusions are to be reached. We hope this guide will be helpful for scientists who would like to use the belief update task, as well as readers, reviewers and editors who are required to evaluate studies using this task.

Age Effects in Perception of Time

2005 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 921-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Wittmann ◽  
Sandra Lehnhoff
Keyword(s):  
Time Perception ◽  
Nonlinear Regression ◽  
Age Effects ◽  
Chronological Age ◽  
Subjective Time ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Perception Of Time ◽  
Pearson Correlations

Despite the widespread belief that the subjective speed of the passage of time increases with age, empirical results are controversial. In this study, a combination of questionnaires was employed to assess subjective time perception by 499 subjects, ages 14 to 94 years. Pearson correlations and nonlinear regression analyses on a variety of questionnaires and the age of the participants show that the momentary perception of the passage of time and the retrospective judgment of past periods of time are a function of chronological age; however, small-to-moderate effects accounted for at most 10% of the variance. Results generally support the widespread perception that the passage of time speeds up with age. These results are discussed in the context of models of prospective and retrospective time judgment, but interpretations have to be treated with caution given methodological limitations.

Neighborhood Associations, Political Repertoires and Neighborhood Exits

1989 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.S. Oropesa
Keyword(s):  
Service Delivery ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Residential Mobility ◽  
Neighborhood Associations ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Empirical Relationships ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Neighborhood Problems

The ways in which residents can respond to neighborhood problems are well understood. Residents can act politically, move or stay put and remain inactive. Less understood are the temporal and empirical relationships between these different strategies. Social scientists and policy makers currently believe, with little empirical evidence, that the decision to move from the community is a function of one's political experiences and involvement in institutions that resolve conflicts. Using survey data collected in Seattle, Washington during the late 1970s, the empirical results are initially more consistent with this view for residential mobility than thoughts about moving. Subsequent analysis reveals that the results for residential mobility are questionable as well. Mobility is also related to perceptions about specific sets of issues in the community, including neighborhood decline and service delivery.

An Analysis of Private School Closings

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lakshmi Pandey ◽  
David L. Sjoquist ◽  
Mary Beth Walker
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Private Schools ◽  
National Survey ◽  
Private School ◽  
Religious Affiliation ◽  
School Closings ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Education Statistics ◽  
K 12 ◽  
Infrequent Event

We add to the small literature on private school supply by exploring exits of K–12 private schools. We find that the closure of private schools is not an infrequent event and use national survey data from the National Center for Education Statistics to study closures of private schools. We assume that the probability of an exit is a function of excess supply of private schools over demand as well as of the school's characteristics, such as age, size, and religious affiliation. Our empirical results generally support the implications of the model.

scholarly journals The Correlates and Consequences of Believing in Free Will

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Melissa Snater
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Moral Responsibility ◽  
Free Will ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Close Connection ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Helping Behaviour ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Opposing Camp ◽  
Beliefs And Attitudes

<p>Research has indicated that weakening people’s belief in free will may likewise weaken their belief in moral responsibility and potentially license them to morally transgress. Recent studies in social psychology suggest that diminished belief in free will is associated with a range of anti-social or otherwise negative outcomes. For example, cheating, unjustified aggression, and less prosocial helping behaviour. In response to these findings, illusionist philosophers have recommended that even if scientists somehow conclusively showed that free will does not exist it might nevertheless be necessary to foster widespread belief as a useful-fiction. In the opposing camp, free will disillusionists maintain that belief in free will has a dark side that we would be better off without. The problem they say, is the close connection between free will and the belief that people justly deserve what they get. So rather than having the instrumental benefits that illusionists claim, belief in free will is too often taken to justify treating people in severe and demeaning ways. Who then is correct? I report empirical results comparing the beliefs and attitudes of free will sceptics and people naïve to the debate. Results are consistent with the claims of disillusionists. Free will sceptics are more compassionate, and are less likely to believe in just deserts and harbour retributive attitudes.</p>

Drivers of Performance of Franchisees: A Multi-level Analysis

2017 ◽  
pp. 107-122
Author(s):  
Dut Vo Van ◽  
Huong Tran Thu ◽  
Dang Nguyen Huu
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Agency Theory ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Hierarchical Linear Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Level Analysis

The aim of this study is to examine the drivers of performance of franchisee organizations. Adopting agency theory, we hypothesize that age, size and obligatory assortment decided by central franchisors, distribution of power from franchisors to franchisees and frequency of franchisor’s visits to franchisee are positively associated with the performance of franchisees. The survey data of 186 franchisees in four European countries are used to test the proposed hypotheses. Principal component analysis and a hierarchical linear model are applied in this study. Empirical results reveal that whether the proposed hypotheses are statistically supported depend correspondingly on how franchisees’ performance is measured. The paper provides some implications for franchisee literature.

Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables / Saisonale und zyklische Eigenschaften von ifo Konjunkturtest Variablen

2003 ◽  
Vol 223 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebhard Flaig
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Unobserved Components ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Business Survey Data ◽  
Unobserved Components Model ◽  
Business Survey ◽  
Working Day ◽  
Over Time

SummaryIn this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with about 3, 5 and 11 years. Each subcycle of the assessment variable is “similar” to the corresponding subcycle of the expectations variable. The seasonal pattern is changing over time and the working day effect is significant for the assessment of the current business situation and for the Ifo Business Climate, but not for the expectation series.

Beyond Turnout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Political Sophistication ◽  
National Data ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cross National

Compulsory voting is widely used in the democratic world, and it is well established that it increases electoral participation. This book assesses the effects of compulsory voting beyond turnout. The author first summarizes the normative arguments for and against compulsory voting, provides information on its contemporary use, reviews recent events pertaining to its (proposed) adoption and abolition, and provides an extensive account of extant research on its consequences. The author then advances a theory that compulsory voting polarizes behavior and attitudes, and broadens gaps in political sophistication levels, among those with negative and positive orientations toward democracy. Recognizing the impact of mandatory voting on the electorate, political parties then alter the ways in which they seek votes, with mainstream parties moderating their platforms and smaller parties taking more extreme positions. The author uses survey data from countries with compulsory voting to show that support for the requirement to vote is driven by individuals’ orientations toward democracy. The theory is then comprehensively tested using: cross-national data, cross-cantonal data from Switzerland, and survey data from Argentina. Empirical results are largely indicative of the theorized process whereby compulsory voting has divergent effects on citizens and political parties. The book concludes with a discussion of future directions for academic research, implications for those who craft electoral policy, and alternative ways of boosting turnout.

Epistemic Consequentialism

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Epistemic Value ◽  
Formal Epistemology ◽  
Epistemic Normativity ◽  
Epistemic Norms ◽  
Rule Consequentialism ◽  
Epistemic Utility ◽  
Traditional Epistemology ◽  
Epistemic Consequentialism ◽  
In Virtue Of

An important issue in epistemology concerns the source of epistemic normativity. Epistemic consequentialism maintains that epistemic norms are genuine norms in virtue of the way in which they are conducive to epistemic value, whatever epistemic value may be. So, for example, the epistemic consequentialist might say that it is a norm that beliefs should be consistent in virtue of the fact that holding consistent beliefs is the best way to achieve the epistemic value of accuracy. Thus epistemic consequentialism is structurally similar to the familiar family of consequentialist views in ethics. Recently, philosophers from both formal epistemology and traditional epistemology have shown interest in such a view. In formal epistemology, there has been particular interest in thinking of epistemology as a kind of decision theory where instead of maximizing expected utility one maximizes expected epistemic utility. In traditional epistemology, there has been particular interest in various forms of reliabilism about justification and whether such views are analogous to—and so face similar problems to—versions of rule consequentialism in ethics. This volume presents some of the most recent work on these topics as well as others related to epistemic consequentialism, by authors that are sympathetic to the view and those who are critical of it.

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