Living longer in high longevity risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-86
Author(s):  
Rachel Wingenbach ◽  
Jong-Min Kim ◽  
Hojin Jung
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

AbstractThere is considerable uncertainty regarding changes in future mortality rates. This article investigates the impact of such longevity risk on discounted government annuity benefits for retirees. It is critical to forecast more accurate future mortality rates to improve our estimation of an expected annuity payout. Thus, we utilize the Lee–Carter model, which is well-known as a parsimonious dynamic mortality model. We find strong evidence that female retirees are likely to receive more public lifetime annuity than males in the USA, which is associated with systematic mortality rate differences between genders. A cross-country comparison presents that the current public annuity system would not fully cover retiree's longevity risk. Every additional year of life expectancy leaves future retirees exposed to high risk, arising from high volatility of lifetime annuities. Also, because the growth in life expectancy is higher than the growth of expected public pension, there will be a financial risk to retirees.

Transboundary air pollution and respiratory disease mortality: evidence from European countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Spiteri ◽  
Philip von Brockdorff
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transboundary Air Pollution ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to quantify the impact of transboundary air pollutants, particularly those related to urban traffic, on health outcomes. The importance of focusing on the health implications of transboundary pollution is due to the fact that these emissions originate from another jurisdiction, thus constituting international negative externalities. Thus, by isolating and quantifying the impact of these transboundary air pollutants on domestic health outcomes, the authors can understand more clearly the extent of these externalities, identify their ramifications for health and emphasise the importance of cross-country cooperation in the fight against air pollution.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ panel data regression analysis to look at the relationship between emissions of transboundary air pollution and mortality rates from various respiratory diseases among a sample of 40 European countries, over the period 2003–2014. In turn, the authors use annual data on transboundary emissions of sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), together with detailed data on the per capita incidence of various respiratory diseases, including lung cancer, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The authors consider a number of different regression equation specifications and control for potential confounders like the quality of healthcare and economic prosperity within each country.FindingsThe results show that transboundary emissions of PM2.5 are positively and significantly related to mortality rates from asthma in our sample of countries. Quantitatively, a 10% increase in PM2.5 transboundary emissions per capita from neighbouring countries is associated with a 1.4% increase in the asthma mortality rate within the recipient country or roughly 200 deaths by asthma per year across our sample.Originality/valueThese findings have important policy implications for cross-country cooperation and regulation in the field of pollution abatement and control, particularly since all the countries under consideration form a part of the UN's Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), a transnational cooperative agreement aimed at curtailing such pollutants on an international level.

scholarly journals Mortality data reliability in an internal model

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-444
Author(s):  
Fabrice Balland ◽  
Alexandre Boumezoued ◽  
Laurent Devineau ◽  
Marine Habart ◽  
Tom Popa
Keyword(s):  
Data Quality ◽  
Internal Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Solvency Ii ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Capital Requirement ◽  
Stochastic Mortality ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database show particularly low and high mortality rates, respectively. To provide corrected tables for the three countries of interest here (France, Italy and West Germany), we use the approach developed by Boumezoued for countries for which the method applies (France and Italy) and provide an extension of the method for West Germany as monthly fertility histories are not sufficient to cover the generations of interest. These mortality tables are crucial inputs to stochastic mortality models forecasting future scenarios, from which the extreme 0.5% longevity improvement can be extracted, allowing for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement. More precisely, to assess the impact of such anomalies in the Solvency II framework, we use a simplified internal model based on three usual stochastic models to project mortality rates in the future combined with a closure table methodology for older ages. Correcting this bias obviously improves the data quality of the mortality inputs, which is of paramount importance today, and slightly decreases the capital requirement. Overall, the longevity risk assessment remains stable, as well as the selection of the stochastic mortality model. As a collateral gain of this data quality improvement, the more regular estimated parameters allow for new insights and a refined assessment regarding longevity risk.

scholarly journals The impact of increasing education levels on rising life expectancy: a decomposition analysis for Italy, Denmark, and the USA

Genus ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Luy ◽  
Marina Zannella ◽  
Christian Wegner-Siegmundt ◽  
Yuka Minagawa ◽  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Education Levels ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Asthma Mortality in Canada, 1946 to 1990

1995 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S Hogg ◽  
Martin T Schechter ◽  
Julio SG Montaner ◽  
James C Hogg
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Statistics Canada ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Asthma Mortality

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of asthma on Canadian mortality rates over a 45-year period.DESIGN: A descriptive, population-based study.SETTING: Canada.SUBJECTS: All persons who died from asthma in Canada from 1946 to 1990 as reported to Statistics Canada in Ottawa.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardized mortality ratios, age-specific patterns of death, potential years of life lost (PYLL) and life expectancy lost.RESULTS: A total of 12,010 male and 8486 female asthma deaths were recorded in Canada from 1946 to 1990. Mortality rates for both sexes declined from a high of between three to six deaths in 1951 to 1955 to approximately two deaths per 100,000 in 1986 to 1990, with the decline in rates being greater for males than females. Age-specific mortality rates were highest al all ages in 1951 to 1955, except for 15 to 24 years when deaths rates for the 1981 to 1985 period were greater. PYLL exhibit the same pattern as mortality, peaking in 1951 to 1955 and subsequently declining with each period. Loss in life expectancy due to asthma was about one month (not significant) in all time periods.CONCLUSIONS: Asthma mortality rates have declined significantly over the study period. This decline appears to be linked with the convergence of sex-specific rates and with changes in the patterning or age-specific mortality. The impact of asthma on the life expectancy of Canadians is small.

scholarly journals The Heteroscedasticity Impact on Actuarial Science: Lee Carter Error Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-55
Author(s):  
Olgerta Idrizi ◽  
Besa Shahini
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Actuarial Science ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Error Simulation ◽  
Carter Model

Abstract C19 Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. As regards the latter, recent work has focused on modelling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modelling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. In this paper we gives an overview of the Lee Carter model and the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In particular, we focus on a sensitivity issue of this model and in order to deal with it, we illustrate the implementation of an experimental strategy to assess the robustness of the LC model. The next step, we experiment and apply it to a matrix of mortality rates. The results are applied to a pension annuity. There are investigating in particular the hypothesis about the error structure implicitly assumed in the model specification, after having assume that errors are homoscedastic. Analyzing the model it is estimated that the homoscedasticity assumption is quite unrealistic, because of the observed pattern of the mortality rates showing a different variability at different ages. Therefore, there is an emerging opportunity to analyze the strength of predictable parameter. The purpose of this study is a strategy in order to assess the strength of the Lee-Carter model inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The impact of Lee Carter model on various financial calculations is the main focus of the paper. Furthermore, it is applied it to a matrix of mortality rates including a pension rate portfolio. The Albania model with the variables of death and birth is shown on this paper taken in consideration the Lee Carter Error.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Health Status: A Cross-Country Analysis

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4II) ◽  
pp. 745-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rehana Siddiqui ◽  
Mir Annice Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Health Status ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Human Resource Development ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
General Level ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

An analysis of health status is an important aspect of human resource development. Improvements in health do not only improve the productivity of the labour force, but they also help to improve the impact of other forms of human capital formation, e.g. education. In most developing countries health status is difficult to determine as the question arises as to what measures should be used as indicators of health status. At a general level most of the demand or production function considerations are obtained by aggregating over the micro factors. I However, in the case of health status micro and macro measures may not be perfectly correlated; In most cross-country studies life expectancy at birth or the infant mortality rate are taken as indicators of health status. Other measures which can be used to indicate such improvements in health status are age and diseasespecifrc mortality or morbidity and life expectancy. However, the improvement in health status can be observed most obviously from increases in life expectancy which is a better measure for cross country comparison than age and diseasespecific mortality or morbidity, which are more difficult to compare at the international level.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Attributable Deaths on Longevity, Premature Mortality and DALY: Estimates of USA, Italy, Sweden and Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay K Mohanty ◽  
Manisha Dubey ◽  
Udaya S Mishra ◽  
Umakanta Sahoo
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
United Nation

AbstractIn a short span of four months, the COVID-19 pandemic has added over 0.4 million deaths worldwide, which are untimely, premature and unwarranted. The USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden are four worst affected countries, accounting to over 40% of COVID-19 deaths globally. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 attributable deaths on longevity, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Data from United Nation Population Projection, Statista and centre for disease control and prevention were used in the analyses. Life expectancy, YPLL and DALY were estimated under four scenarios; no COVID-19 deaths, actual number of COVID-19 death as of 22nd May, 2020 and anticipating COVID-19 death share of 6% and 10% respectively. The COVID-19 attributable deaths have lowered the life expectancy by 0.4 years each in USA and Sweden, 0.5 years in Italy and 0.1 years in Germany. The loss of YPLL was 1.5, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 million in USA, Italy, Germany and Sweden respectively. The DALY (per 1000 population) due to COVID-19 was 4 in USA, 6 in Italy, 1 each in Germany and Sweden. Compression in life expectancy and increase in YPLL and DALY may intensify further if death continues to soar. COVID-19 has a marked impact on mortality. Reduction in longevity premature mortality and loss of DALY is higher among elderly.

scholarly journals Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynda Fenton ◽  
Jon Minton ◽  
Julie Ramsay ◽  
Maria Kaye-Bardgett ◽  
Colin Fischbacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
High Income ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
List Type ◽  
Segmented Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
The Usa

AbstractObjectiveGains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally, and to assess the timing of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.SettingAustria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England & Wales, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, USA.MethodsWe used life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy change for 24 high-income countries over five-year periods from 1992 to 2016, and the change for Scotland for five-year periods from 1857 to 2016. One- and two-break segmented regression models were applied to mortality data from National Records of Scotland (NRS) to identify turning points in age-standardised mortality trends between 1990 and 2018.ResultsIn 2012-2016 life expectancies in Scotland increased by 2.5 weeks/year for females and 4.5 weeks/year for males, the smallest gains of any period since the early 1970s. The improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016 were smallest among females (<2.0 weeks/year) in Northern Ireland, Iceland, England & Wales and the USA and among males (<5.0 weeks/year) in Iceland, USA, England & Wales and Scotland. Japan, Korea, and countries of Eastern Europe have seen substantial gains in the same period. The best estimate of when mortality rates changed to a slower rate of improvement in Scotland was the year to 2012 Q4 for males and the year to 2014 Q2 for females.ConclusionLife expectancy improvement has stalled across many, but not all, high income countries. The recent change in the mortality trend in Scotland occurred within the period 2012-2014. Further research is required to understand these trends, but governments must also take timely action on plausible contributors.Strengths and limitations of this studyThe use of five-year time periods for comparison of life expectancy changes reduces the influence of year-to-year variation on observations.Examining long-term trends addresses concerns that recent life expectancy stalling may be over-emphasised due to notably large gains in the immediately preceding period.The international comparison was limited to the 24 high-income countries for which data were readily available for the relevant period.Analysis of trend data will always be sensitive to the period selected, however segmented regression of the full period of mortality rates available offers an objective method of identifying the timing of a change in trend.

scholarly journals The Heteroscedasticity Impact on Actuarial Science: Lee Carter Error Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Olgerta Idrizi ◽  
Besa Shahini
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Actuarial Science ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Error Simulation ◽  
Carter Model

C19 Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. As regards the latter, recent work has focused on modelling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modelling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. In this paper we gives an overview of the Lee Carter model and the feasibility of using it to construct mortality forecast for the population data. In particular, we focus on a sensitivity issue of this model and in order to deal with it, we illustrate the implementation of an experimental strategy to assess the robustness of the LC model. The next step, we experiment and apply it to a matrix of mortality rates. The results are applied to a pension annuity. There are investigating in particular the hypothesis about the error structure implicitly assumed in the model specification, after having assume that errors are homoscedastic. Analyzing the model it is estimated that the homoscedasticity assumption is quite unrealistic, because of the observed pattern of the mortality rates showing a different variability at different ages. Therefore, there is an emerging opportunity to analyze the strength of predictable parameter. The purpose of this study is a strategy in order to assess the strength of the Lee-Carter model inducing the errors to satisfy the homoscedasticity hypothesis. The impact of Lee Carter model on various financial calculations is the main focus of the paper. Furthermore, it is applied it to a matrix of mortality rates including a pension rate portfolio. The Albania model with the variables of death and birth is shown on this paper taken in consideration the Lee Carter Error.

scholarly journals 1491Impact of COVID19 on years of life lost with and without disability across 18 European-countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Ahmadi-Abhari ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Mika Kivimaki ◽  
Lefkos Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Prevalence Of Dementia ◽  
Incidence Of Dementia

Abstract Background To accurately assess the impact of COVID19 on life-expectancy, years of life lost, and prevalence of dementia and disability, a model integrating calendar-trends in cardiovascular-disease, dementia, disability and mortality is required. We estimated these impacts in Austria, Belgium, Czech-Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. Methods Data to inform the ten-state Monte-Carlo Markov-model for the 18 European countries were derived from official-statistics for population-numbers and mortality-rates (age&sex-specific) and from Survey for Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe for prevalence-estimates and transition-probabilities. Impact of COVID19 was measured comparing the estimates derived from incorporating expected mortality rates assuming calendar-trends in mortality and incidence of dementia, disability, and cardiovascular-disease continue those of the past two-decades, and those incorporating excess COVID19 mortality. Results Assuming COVID-19 vaccination and termination of the pandemic will be accomplished by the end of 2021, the pandemic will have resulted in a loss of 9.3M (95% Uncertainty-Interval 1.3M-29.8M) person-years of life, including 7.1M person-years of dementia-free life and 5.2M person-years of disability-free life among the 289M population (as of 2019) above age-35. The effects on prevalence of dementia, disability and life-expectancy will be presented. Conclusions The impact of the pandemic on disability-free person-years of life lost are devastating, marking a need for more rapid actions to halt the spread of epidemics. Key messages Accurate estimation of future prevalence of dementia and disability to quantify the impact of the pandemic on years of life lost needs to simultaneously account for the declining trends in incidence of dementia and the decline in cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality resulting in increased life-expectancy and a larger pool susceptible to dementia and disability. The COVID19 pandemic is estimated to result in 9.3million person-years of life lost in 18 European countries including a loss of 7.1M person-years of dementia-free life and 5.2M person-years of disability-free life.

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