ECONOMIC SCENARIO GENERATOR AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-372
Author(s):  
Jean-François Bégin
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Us ◽  
Study Parameter ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this article, we study parameter uncertainty and its actuarial implications in the context of economic scenario generators. To account for this additional source of uncertainty in a consistent manner, we cast Wilkie’s four-factor framework into a Bayesian model. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and is used to perform Bayesian predictions on the future values of the inflation rate, the dividend yield, the dividend index return and the long-term interest rate. According to the US data, parameter uncertainty has a significant impact on the dispersion of the four economic variables of Wilkie’s framework. The impact of such parameter uncertainty is then assessed for a portfolio of annuities: the right tail of the loss distribution is significantly heavier when parameters are assumed random and when this uncertainty is estimated in a consistent manner. The risk measures on the loss variable computed with parameter uncertainty are at least 12% larger than their deterministic counterparts.

scholarly journals The Impact of Function Focused Care From Acute Care to Home Care and Nursing Homes

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 629-629
Author(s):  
Silke Metzelthin ◽  
Sandra Zwakhalen ◽  
Barbara Resnick
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Home Care ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Functional Decline ◽  
Term Care ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Functional decline in older adults often lead towards acute or long-term care. In practice, caregivers often focus on completion of care tasks and of prevention of injuries from falls. This task based, safety approach inadvertently results in fewer opportunities for older adults to be actively involved in activities. Further deconditioning and functional decline are common consequences of this inactivity. To prevent or postpone these consequences Function Focused Care (FFC) was developed meaning that caregivers adapt their level of assistance to the capabilities of older adults and stimulate them to do as much as possible by themselves. FFC was first implemented in institutionalized long-term care in the US, but has spread rapidly to other settings (e.g. acute care), target groups (e.g. people with dementia) and countries (e.g. the Netherlands). During this symposium, four presenters from the US and the Netherlands talk about the impact of FFC. The first presentation is about the results of a stepped wedge cluster trial showing a tendency to improve activities of daily living and mobility. The second presentation is about a FFC training program. FFC was feasible to implement in home care and professionals experienced positive changes in knowledge, attitude, skills and support. The next presenter reports about significant improvements regarding time spent in physical activity and a decrease in resistiveness to care in a cluster randomized controlled trial among nursing home residents with dementia. The fourth speaker presents the content and first results of a training program to implement FFC in nursing homes. Nursing Care of Older Adults Interest Group Sponsored Symposium

scholarly journals The impact of information management in developing new products in bank – an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 197-206
Author(s):  
Zoran Najdanović ◽  
Natalia Tutek
Keyword(s):  
Product Development ◽  
Information Management ◽  
New Product Development ◽  
New Products ◽  
New Product ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Customer Preferences ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Successful information management is big challenge for any organization. In this paper the emphasis is on information management in new product development in bank. Under strong pressure from competition and new technological changes, as well as the turbulent changes in the environment, financial institutions must continuously develop new products and services. In order to make the services more interesting to the users, it is necessary to collect data about the users, their wishes and preferences. The data should then be converted into useful information that will result with developing the right product or service that users will recognize as necessary. Products become personalized, user-friendly, and the emphasis is on the importance of long-term company relationships with customers. Only with well-organized information, managers can make the right business decisions and companies can react in time to market changes. When creating their strategy, successful companies analyze and identify elements that significantly contribute to creating a competitive advantage and ensuring long-term growth and development. The paper presents an empirical research of customer preferences which lead to new product development in bank.

Privacy and the Internet

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Internet ◽  
Eu Directive ◽  
The Right To Know ◽  
The Us ◽  
Legal Constraints ◽  
Government Surveillance ◽  
Online Traffic ◽  
The Right ◽  
Power Needs ◽  
The Impact

Chapter 14 deals with privacy, surveillance, and the right to know in the context of the internet. Edward Snowden’s disclosures of thousands of classified documents from the US National Security Agency served as a wake-up call. People are beginning to realize that government surveillance is widespread and intrusive, and that this intrusive power needs to be subject to legal safeguards. The chapter considers the legal constraints governing UK legislation and the impact of the decision in the Digital Rights Ireland case that EU Directive 2006/24/EC, which provided for the mass retention and disclosure of individuals’ online traffic data, is invalid. It considers the recent English cases and concludes by examining the framework which has been suggested for regulating the turbulent digital age in which we now live, drawing on David Anderson QC’s report ‘A Question of Trust’ and the European Court’s decision in the Google Spain case.

scholarly journals Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults during Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Janet Currie ◽  
Michael Mueller-Smith ◽  
Maya Rossin-Slater
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Birth Outcomes ◽  
Infant Health ◽  
In Utero ◽  
Adverse Birth Outcomes ◽  
Disadvantaged Women ◽  
The Us ◽  
Birth Records ◽  
The Impact

We study the effects of prenatal exposure to violent crime on infant health, using New York City crime records linked to mothers' addresses in birth records data. We address endogeneity of assault exposure with three strategies and find that in utero assault exposure significantly increases the incidence of adverse birth outcomes. We calculate that the annual social cost of assault during pregnancy in the US is more than $3.8 billion. Since infant health predicts long-term wellbeing and disadvantaged women are disproportionately likely to be domestic abuse victims, violence in utero may be an important channel for intergenerational transmission of inequality.

scholarly journals Control mechanisms for stochastic biochemical systems via computation of reachable sets

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 160790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eszter Lakatos ◽  
Michael P. H. Stumpf
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Biology ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Molecular Processes ◽  
Biochemical Systems ◽  
Mrna And Protein Expression ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
The Impact

Controlling the behaviour of cells by rationally guiding molecular processes is an overarching aim of much of synthetic biology. Molecular processes, however, are notoriously noisy and frequently nonlinear. We present an approach to studying the impact of control measures on motifs of molecular interactions that addresses the problems faced in many biological systems: stochasticity, parameter uncertainty and nonlinearity. We show that our reachability analysis formalism can describe the potential behaviour of biological (naturally evolved as well as engineered) systems, and provides a set of bounds on their dynamics at the level of population statistics: for example, we can obtain the possible ranges of means and variances of mRNA and protein expression levels, even in the presence of uncertainty about model parameters.

At a Glance … The world economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Depression Era ◽  
The Impact ◽  
India And China

World growth is expected to remain below trend at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.4 per cent in 2013.The Euro Area is forecast to contract by 0.5 per cent this year and grow only marginally next year with unemployment reaching ‘depression-era’ rates in some periphery economies. The US is likely to grow by 2 per cent in each year.Growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China will be below long-term potential next year, although ‘hard-landings’ will be avoided; the impact on advanced economies will be offset by a large gain in competitiveness.Debt to GDP ratios in OECD countries will, on average, be higher in 2014 than at present.

scholarly journals The impact of Sino-US trade friction on Sino-Russian soybean trade cooperation

2021 ◽  
Vol 204 (01) ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Cyucze Chen'
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Trade Friction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soybean Trade

Abstract. Since entering the 21st century, trade frictions between China and the United States have occurred frequently. In response to the escalation of the US provocation, China began to impose a 25 % tariff on US soybeans. The hindrance of Sino-US soybean trade has brought new opportunities for the development of Sino-Russian soybean trade. Purpose. This article analyzes the current situation of China-Russia soybean trade cooperation in the context of Sino-US trade frictions, and analyzes the current constraints and favorable opportunities in the development of the Sino-Russian soybean trade industry. Methods. The study used monographic, abstract-logical methods and the method of comparative analysis. Results. It can be said that Sino-US trade friction has objectively injected new momentum into Sino-Russian agricultural cooperation, and soybeans have become a new growth point in Sino-Russian agricultural cooperation. In the context of the “Belt and Road” initiative and the long-term trade competition between China and the United States, it is of great significance to further strengthen Sino-Russian agricultural cooperation and increase the level of agricultural trade represented by soybeans between the two countries. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the analysis of limited factors of influence and indication of a new direction of cooperation in the field of soybeans between the PRC and the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Transaksi Uang Elektronik terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
Ruth Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact

Increasingly advanced technology encourages people to make transactions using electronic money (e-money). Nowadays, more Indonesian people use electronic money in their dealings, which is proven by the increasing volume of electronic money transactions from year to year. Electronic cash is chosed because it is more practical in making transactions with traders. The rising use of electronic money can affect the money supply, which can affect the inflation rate. Several studies have stated the effect of electronic money on inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of the variable volume and nominal value of electronic money transactions (e-money) on the inflation rate in Indonesia from January 2016 to December 2020. The data used in this study are secondary data with the type of monthly time series taken from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, and BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). The analysis technique used is the ECM (Error Correction Model). The Error Correction Model in this study aims to identify long-term and short-term relationships that occur because of the cointegration between research variables and the relationship between variables that are not stationary. This study indicates that in the long term, the variables volume of e-money transactions and money supply (M2) have a significant effect on the inflation variable. In contrast, other macroeconomic variables (BI rate and nominal value of e-money transactions) has no significant impact. Meanwhile, the short-term regression model shows no variables that have a substantial effect on the inflation variable.

scholarly journals The Impact of Investment Decision and Funding on Financial Performance and Firm Value

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Hadi Santoso
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Managers who are responsible for the management of companies are faced with two important decisions - investment and funding. The right investment decisions and choice of funding sources are important because they affect the company's financial performance. The selection of the types of assets to be invested and the right types of financing sources result in optimal returns for the company. It reflects good company performance and future prospects. In addition, optimal return is a good sign for investors. Companies that perform well experience increase in the value of their firm. This study examined the effect of investment decisions and the selection of appropriate sources of funds on the performance of the company and the consequent impact on the firm value. The study was conducted in two parts. The first part examined the effect of investment decisions on long-term assets with long-term funding on the rate of return and firm value. The second part examined the effect of investment decisions on the company's short-term assets and funding for financial performance and firm value. The case study used in this research is a consumer goods sub-sector company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2010 to 2017. Path analysis is the data analysis tools that was used. The results of data analysis showed that the asset structure has an effect on financial performance and firm value. The capital structure affects the financial performance but does not affect the firm value of the company. Financial performance was measured by ROI.

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