Magnitudes of future large earthquakes near Istanbul quantified from 1500 years of historical earthquakes, present-day microseismicity and GPS slip rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 764 ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Bulut ◽  
Bahadır Aktuğ ◽  
Cenk Yaltırak ◽  
Aslı Doğru ◽  
Haluk Özener
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Multisegment Rupture Hazard Modeling along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Cheng ◽  
Thomas Chartier ◽  
Xiwei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Input Constraints ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Xianshuihe Fault Zone ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Southern Section

Abstract The Xianshuihe fault is a remarkable strike-slip fault characterized by high slip rate (∼10  mm/yr) and frequent strong historical earthquakes. The potential for future large earthquakes on this fault is enhanced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Previous works gave little attention to the probabilities of multisegment ruptures on the Xianshuihe fault. In this study, we build five possible multisegment rupture combination models for the Xianshuihe fault. The fault slip rates and historical earthquakes are used as input constraints to model the future seismicity on the fault segments and test whether the rupture combination models are appropriate. The segment combination model, based essentially on historical ruptures, has produced the seismicity rates most consistent with the historical records, although the model with ruptures on both the entire northern section and southern section should also be considered. The peak ground acceleration values with a return period of 475 yr calculated using the modeled rates on the Xianshuihe fault for both two models are on average larger than the values of the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map.

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Complex Slip Distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake: An Event Occurring on the Slowly Slipping Fault

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumeng Guo ◽  
Hongfeng Yang ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Yong Zheng ◽  
Lupeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Seismic Gap ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Kunlun Mountain ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred on the Kunlun Mountain Pass–Jiangcuo fault (KMPJF), a seismogenic fault with no documented large earthquakes. To probe its kinematics, we first estimate the slip rates of the KMPJF and Tuosuo Lake segment (TLS, ∼75 km north of the KMPJF) of the East Kunlun fault (EKLF) based on the secular Global Positioning System (GPS) data using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our model reveals that the slip rates of the KMPJF and TLS are 1.7 ± 0.8 and 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. Then, we invert high-resolution GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations to decipher the fault geometry and detailed coseismic slip distribution associated with the Maduo earthquake. The geometry of the KMPFJ significantly varies along strike, composed of five fault subsegments. The most slip is accommodated by two steeply dipping fault segments, with the patch of large sinistral slip concentrated in the shallow depth on a simple straight structure. The released seismic moment is ∼1.5×1020  N·m, equivalent to an Mw 7.39 event, with a peak slip of ∼9.3 m. Combining the average coseismic slip and slip rate of the main fault, an earthquake recurrence period of ∼1250−400+1120  yr is estimated. The Maduo earthquake reminds us to reevaluate the potential of seismic gaps where slip rates are low. Based on our calculated Coulomb failure stress, the Maduo earthquake imposes positive stress on the Maqin–Maqu segment of the EKLF, a long-recognized seismic gap, implying that it may accelerate the occurrence of the next major event in this region.

scholarly journals Tectonic Geomorphology and Paleoseismology of the Sharkhai fault: a new source of seismic hazard for Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeer Al-Ashkar ◽  
Antoine Schlupp ◽  
Matthieu Ferry ◽  
Ulziibat Munkhuu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Tectonic Geomorphology ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract. We present new constraints from tectonic geomorphology and paleoseismology along the newly discovered Sharkhai fault near the capital city of Mongolia. Detailed observations from high resolution Pleiades satellite images and field investigations allowed us to map the fault in detail, describe its geometry and segmentation, characterize its kinematics, and document its recent activity and seismic behavior (cumulative displacements and paleoseismicity). The Sharkhai fault displays a surface length of ~40 km with a slightly arcuate geometry, and a strike ranging from N42° E to N72° E. It affects numerous drainages that show left-lateral cumulative displacements reaching 57 m. Paleoseismic investigations document the faulting and deposition record for the last ~3000 yr and reveal that the penultimate earthquake (PE) occurred between 1515 ± 90 BC and 945 ± 110 BC and the most recent event (MRE) occurred after 860 ± 85 AD. The resulting time interval of 2080 ± 470 years is the first constraint on the Sharkhai fault for large earthquakes. On the basis of our mapping of the surface rupture and the resulting segmentation analysis, we propose two possible scenarios for large earthquakes with likely magnitudes between 6.4 ± 0.2 and 7.1 ± 0.2. Furthermore, we apply scaling laws to infer coseismic slip values and derive preliminary estimates of long-term slip rates between 0.2 ± 0.2 and 1.0 ± 0.5 mm/y. Finally, we propose that these original observations and results from a newly discovered fault should be taken into account for the seismic hazard assessment for the city of Ulaanbaatar and help build a comprehensive model of active faults in that region.

Paleoearthquakes on the Húsavík-Flatey Fault in northern Iceland: Where are the large earthquakes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Matrau ◽  
Yann Klinger ◽  
Jonathan Harrington ◽  
Ulas Avsar ◽  
Esther R. Gudmundsdottir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Fault Scarp ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Birch Wood ◽  
Alluvial Deposits ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Tephra Layers ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>Paleoseismology is key to study earthquake recurrence and fault slip rates during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene. The Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) in northern Iceland is a 100 km-long right-lateral transform fault connecting the onshore Northern Volcanic Zone to the offshore Kolbeinsey Ridge and accommodating, together with the Grímsey Oblique Rift (GOR), ~18 mm/yr of relative motion between the Eurasian and North American plates. Significant earthquakes occurred on the HFF in 1755, 1838 and 1872 with estimated magnitudes of 6.5-7. However, historical information on past earthquakes prior to 1755 is very limited in both timing and size.</p><p>We excavated five trenches in a small basin (Vestari Krubbsskál) located 5.5 km southeast of the town of Húsavík and at 300 m.a.s.l. and one trench in an alluvial fan (Traðargerði) located 0.5 km north of Húsavík and at 50 m.a.s.l. In a cold and wet environment, such as in coastal parts of Iceland, one has to take into account periglacial processes affecting the topsoil to discriminate tectonic from non-tectonic deformation. We used tephra layers in the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches as well as birch wood samples in Traðargerði to constrain the timing of past earthquakes. Tephra layers Hekla-3 (2971 BP) and Hekla-4 (4331±20 BP) are visible in the top half of all the trenches. In addition, a few younger tephra layers are visible in the top part of the trenches. In Traðargerði several dark layers rich in organic matter are found, including birch wood-rich layers from the Earlier Birch Period (9000-7000 BP) and the Later Birch Period (5000-2500 BP). In Vestari Krubbsskál the lower halves of the trenches display mostly lacustrine deposits whereas in Traðargerði the lower half of the trench shows alluvial deposits overlaying coarser deposits (gravels/pebbles) most likely of late-glacial or early post-glacial origins. In addition, early Holocene tephra layers are observed in some of the trenches at both sites and may correspond to Askja-S (10800 BP), Saksunarvatn (10300 BP) and Vedde (12100 BP). These observations provide good age constraints and suggest that both the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches cover the entire Holocene.</p><p>Trenches at both sites show significant normal deformation in addition to strike-slip, well correlated with their larger scale topographies (pull-apart basin in Vestari Krubbsskál and 45 m-high fault scarp in Traðargerði). We mapped layers, cracks and faults on all trench walls to build a catalogue of Holocene earthquakes. We identified events based on the upward terminations of the cracks and retrodeformation. Our results yield fewer major earthquakes than expected, suggesting that large earthquakes (around magnitude 7) are probably rare and the more typical HFF earthquakes of magnitude 6-6.5 likely produce limited topsoil deformation.[yk1]  Our interpretation also suggests that the Holocene slip rate [yk2] for the fault section we are studying may be slower than the estimated geodetic slip rate (6 to 9 mm/yr)[yk3]  for the entire onshore HFF, although secondary onshore sub-parallel fault strands could accommodate part of the deformation.</p>

Present Seismotectonic Behavior of the EAF from Improved Seismicity Catalog and Earthquake Source Mechanism Solutions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sezim Ezgi Guvercin ◽  
Hayrullah Karabulut ◽  
Ugur Dogan ◽  
Ziyadin Cakir ◽  
Semih Ergintav ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Source Mechanisms ◽  
Seismicity Catalog ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>The seismotectonic behavior of the Eastern Anatolia is predominantly controlled by the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). Together with the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), this ~400 km long sinistral transform fault, accommodates the westward motion of Anatolia between Anatolian and Arabian plates with a slip rate of ~10 mm/yr which is significantly slower than the motion of the NAF (25 mm/yr). Although this two major faults are similar in terms of the migration of the large earthquakes from east to west, the present seismicity of the EAF is high compared to the NAF. Except for the several earthquakes with Mw > 5, there were no devastating earthquakes during the instrumental period along the EAF. The absence of large earthquakes during the last ~50 years along the EAF indicates presence of significant seismic gaps and potential seismic hazard in the region. Recent studies indicate segmentation of the EAF with varying lengths of creeping and locked segments. Some details of the geometries and the slip rates of these segments have been estimated by the InSAR observations. Both InSAR and GPS observations indicate that the maximum creep along this the EAF is ~10 mm/yr, approximately the slip rate of the EAF.</p><p>While both geodetic data verify the existence of creep from surface deformation, its relation to the seismic behavior of the EAF is less clear. There is a ~30 km long creeping segment to the north-east of Lake Hazar which generates no significant seismicity. On the other hand, another creeping segment to the south-west of Lake Hazar, there are repeating events, below the depth of 10 km, with a horizontal extent of 15 km. The highly fractured and complex structure of this fault zone is also confirmed by the available focal mechanisms which shows significant variety.</p><p>In this study, we update seismicity catalog with improved locations to date and present a uniform and high quality focal mechanism catalog down to M4 completeness, using regional waveforms. The seismicity catalog is used to estimate the geometry of the segmentation while the novel earthquake source mechanisms are used to understand the kinematics of the segments and interactions. Moreover, we present the latest M4.9, 2019, Sivrice earthquake, pointing out a location where the stress is perturbed due to a transition from creeping segment to locked segment. (Supported by TUBITAK no: 118Y435 project)</p>

Quaternary Deposits Affect Coseismic Offset on Thrust Faults: Evidence from the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China, Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hu Wang ◽  
Zhihou Zhang ◽  
Yongkang Ran ◽  
Lichun Chen ◽  
Yu Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thrust Faults ◽  
Quaternary Deposits ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Seismogenic Faults ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Geophysical Investigations ◽  
Surface Ruptures ◽  
Frequency Variations ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Coseismic Offset

Abstract Coseismic offset is an important parameter to determine the characteristics of surface ruptures produced by large earthquakes and has significant implications for understanding fault-zone mechanics. To date, most studies have focused on broad-wavelength variations in coseismic offset and their related mechanisms. However, high-frequency variations in coseismic offset have been less commonly reported due to difficulty in field identification. Here, we show that three sites have typical abrupt changes in coseismic offset within short distances along surface ruptures produced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The Bailu, Qingping, and Xiaoyudong sites on different segments of the seismogenic faults show that coseismic vertical offsets can vary from ∼0.6 to ∼1.7  m at neighboring locations. Moreover, the offset gradients at the three sites are estimated from ∼2.5 to ∼30.9  m/km. Based on geologic and geophysical investigations at the three sites, we suggest that Quaternary deposits are the primary factor affecting coseismic offset. Specifically, thick and loosely packed deposits are more likely to yield smaller coseismic offsets than thin and densely packed deposits. Finally, through a compilation of recent thrust-type earthquakes, we suggest that the coseismic vertical offset gradient for thrust faults can vary greatly, which requires caution in seismic hazard assessments when designing linear infrastructure projects and constraining slip rates at specific sites.

THE SUMATRAN FAULT ZONE — FROM SOURCE TO HAZARD

2007 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 21-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
DANNY HILMAN NATAWIDJAJA ◽  
WAHYU TRIYOSO
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Dense Population ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Oblique Convergence ◽  
Quantitative Basis ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Sumatran Fault

The substantial portion of the dextral component of the Sumatran oblique convergence is accommodated by the Sumatran fault. This 1900 km-long active strike-slip fault zone runs along the backbone of Sumatra pose seismic and fault hazards to dense population on and around the fault zones. The Sumatran fault is highly segmented, and consists of 20 major geometrically defined segments, which range in length from about 60 to 200 km. These segment lengths influenced seismic source dimensions and have limited the magnitudes of large historical fault ruptures to between Mw 6.5 and about 7.7. Slip rates along the fault increase northwestward, from about 5 mm/yr around the Sunda Strait to 27 mm/yr around Toba Lake. These sliprate values provide a quantitative basis for calculation of average expected recurrence periods for large earthquakes on each segment. Deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments are constructed based on these active fault data.

scholarly journals Historical seismicity and rates of crustal deformation along the margins of the Ordos block, north China

1984 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 1767-1783
Author(s):  
S. G. Wesnousky ◽  
L. M. Jones ◽  
C. H. Scholz ◽  
Qidong Deng
Keyword(s):  
Crustal Deformation ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Lateral Shear ◽  
Fault Systems ◽  
Ordos Block ◽  
Earthquakes In China ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Southern Ningxia

Abstract Earthquakes in China show an empirical relation between seismic moment (M0) and the areal distribution of Modified Mercalli intensities VI and VIII (log M0 = 16.66 + 0.91 log AVIII and log M0 = 14.35 + 1.16 log AVI, where A and M0 are measured in squared kilometers and Newton-meter, respectively). The empirical relations may be used to estimate M0 for historical earthquakes in China to within a factor of three, on average, when sufficient isoseismal data exist. This observation and an extensive collection of isoseismal maps are used to estimate M0 for large earthquakes that occurred along the margins of the Ordos block during the last 700 yr. Focal parameters of the historical events are inferred from the orientation and displacements across Quaternary faults. Average rates of crustal deformation are then estimated from the 700-yr historical record with formulas that relate the occurrence rate of seismic moment in a region to rates of crustal strain. The Shanxi and northern Ningxia graben systems are situated along the eastern and northwestern edges of the Ordos block, respectively. Normal faults in the two systems trend northeasterly and are characterized by a component of right-lateral slip. The deformation resulting from slip during earthquakes in each of the respective fault systems is estimated at about 0.5 to 1.0 mm/yr of both right-lateral shear and north by northwest extension. The Weihe graben system bounds the southern edge of the Ordos block, strikes easterly and conjugate to the Shanxi and northern Ningxia fault systems, and exhibits left-lateral normal fault displacements. The average rate of deformation across Weihe is described by about 1.0 mm/yr of north by northwest extension and 1.5 mm/yr left-lateral east-west shear. The Hetao fault system delineates the northern edge of the Ordos block and displays Quaternary faults similar in orientation and mechanism to that observed in Weihe. Although mapped faults in Hetao exhibit evidence of Quaternary displacement, crustal deformation rates are not estimated because there exists no historical record of large earthquakes in the area. In southern Ningxia, at the southwest boundary of the Ordos block, deformation occurs by slip on left-lateral strike-slip faults oriented in an easterly azimuth and thrust faults with strikes ranging from southeast to south. The average deformation rate in southern Ningxia is found to be about 4.0 mm/yr of east by northeast contraction and 10.0 mm/yr of left-lateral shear. Deformation of each of the fault systems is consistent with a regional compressive stress that trends northeast and results in an average of about 3.0 mm/yr each of contraction at N70°E and extension of N160°E across the entire region. Inasmuch as uncertainties in estimates of M0 for historical earthquakes are about a factor of three, a similar uncertainty is attached to rates of crustal strain determined in this manner.

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