scholarly journals Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kong Chyong Chi ◽  
William J. Nuttall ◽  
David M. Reiner
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Natural Gas Industry ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Stochastic System Dynamics Modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment on a reservoir in the Italian Alps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Stochastic System ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

Abstract. Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. To better understand the processes involved in water scarcity impact, an innovative stochastic System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) explores water stored and turbined in the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). The integration of outputs from climate change simulations as well as from a hydrological model and statistical models into the SDM is a quick and effective tool to simulate past and future water availability and demand conditions. Short-term RCP4.5 simulations depict conditions of highest volume and outflow reductions starting in spring (−16.1 % and −44.7 % in May compared to the baseline). Long-term RCP8.5 simulations suggest conditions of volume and outflow reductions starting in summer and lasting until the end of the year. The number of events with stored water below the 30th and above the 80th quantiles suggest a general reduction both in terms of low and high volumes. These results call for the need to adapt to acute short-term water availability reductions in spring and summer while preparing for hydroelectric production reductions due to the chronic long-term trends affecting autumn and mid-winter. This study provides results and methodological insights for potential SDM upscaling across strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g., hydropower, agriculture and tourism) to expand water scarcity assessments and prepare for future multi-risk conditions and impacts.

Using system dynamics modelling to understand behaviour in UK commercial property markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Trevillion
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.Design/methodology/approachThis is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.FindingsThe model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.Originality/valueDespite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.

THE ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY OF LNG

1974 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
D. T. Linnett
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Calorific Value ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Natural Gas Industry ◽  
Wobbe Index ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Liquid Natural Gas

The natural gas industry in Australia is growing rapidly and this is an opportune time to look at the possible place for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) in this expanding field.In general, as the demand for natural gas increases, and its distribution becomes more widespread, so the economics become more favourable for using LNG for peak shaving, standby purposes, or trucking to satellite vaporising stations. Apart from demand, however, a large number of other factors affect both the decision as to what type, if any, of LNG facility is warranted, and the selection of types and sizes of equipment for that facility. These factors include environmental considerations, calorific value (CV) and Wobbe Index limitations, purification problems, transport facilities, pipeline capacity limitations, climate, etc.In the United Kingdom, the use of LNG is now well established in a number of different roles, and much experience has been obtained in the planning, design, construction and operation of LNG installations. Whilst the growth patterns in Australia and the UK are similar, however, the requirements for storage are substantially different.It is concluded that, as the gas demand in Australia increases, and the distribution network becomes more widespread, LNG facilities may well become economic propositions to fulfil a number of combined roles.

The UK natural-gas industry

1988 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 263-303
Author(s):  
P. Russell ◽  
S.D. Probert
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Natural Gas Industry ◽  
The Uk

Finding Fault with the Nexus Pipeline? Agency Capture and the Public Good

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Kear
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Public Good ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Environmental Impact Statement ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fracturing Process ◽  
Natural Gas Industry ◽  
Regulatory Commission

Natural gas is an increasingly vital U.S. energy source that is presently being tapped and transported across state and international boundaries. Controversy engulfs natural gas, from the hydraulic fracturing process used to liberate it from massive, gas-laden Appalachian shale deposits, to the permitting and construction of new interstate pipelines bringing it to markets. This case explores the controversy flowing from the proposed 256-mile-long interstate Nexus pipeline transecting northern Ohio, southeastern Michigan and terminating at the Dawn Hub in Ontario, Canada. As the lead agency regulating and permitting interstate pipelines, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is also tasked with mitigating environmental risks through the 1969 National Environmental Policy Act's Environmental Impact Statement process. Pipeline opponents assert that a captured federal agency ignores public and scientific input, inadequately addresses public health and safety risks, preempts local control, and wields eminent domain powers at the expense of landowners, cities, and everyone in the pipeline path. Proponents counter that pipelines are the safest means of transporting domestically abundant, cleaner burning, affordable gas to markets that will boost local and regional economies and serve the public good. Debates over what constitutes the public good are only one set in a long list of contentious issues including pipeline safety, proposed routes, property rights, public voice, and questions over the scientific and democratic validity of the Environmental Impact Statement process. The Nexus pipeline provides a sobering example that simple energy policy solutions and compromise are elusive—effectively fueling greater conflict as the natural gas industry booms.

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