The effects of foreign uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy: Empirical evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

2019 ◽  
Vol 532 ◽  
pp. 121879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenghua Wen ◽  
Yilin Xiao ◽  
Haiquan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-157
Author(s):  
İsmet Göçer ◽  
Serdar Ongan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Fisher Equation ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asymmetric Impact

Abstract This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of changes in inflation rates on the US bond rates. This investigation is constructed on the Fisher Equation. To this end, the nonlinear ARDL model is applied. Empirical findings indicate that only the decreases (π− t ) in inflation rates affect bond rates. This asymmetric impact therefore shapes the FED’s monetary policy in terms of determining the bond rates at lower cost. When the inflation rate rises, the FED will know (in advance) that they do not need to increase the bond rates. This reminds us the FED’s former pre-emptive strike policy against inflation.

Testing fisher effect for the USA: application of nonlinear ARDL model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-304
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Representation ◽  
Fisher Equation ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Usa

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10. Findings The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect. Originality/value To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.

Turkish-German Commodity Trade and Asymmetric J-Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-129
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Huseyin Karamelikli
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Turkish Lira

We consider the short-run and the long-run effects of the real Turkish Lira-Euro rate on the trade balance of each of the 64 industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. We find relatively more significant effects by estimating a nonlinear ARDL model for each industry. Indeed, the approach of separating currency depreciation from appreciation identified the five largest Turkish industries that engage in more than 50 % of the trade between these two countries and that benefitted from Turkish Lira depreciation against the Euro.

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