scholarly journals Nearly-optimal scheduling of users with Markovian time-varying transmission rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 99-100 ◽  
pp. 16-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Cecchi ◽  
Peter Jacko
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Rates

scholarly journals COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Chudik ◽  
M. Hashem Pesaran ◽  
Alessandro Rebucci
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Moment Condition ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Linear Interaction ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

AbstractThis paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on changes in the behavior of the virus, re-flecting mutations and vaccinations, and changes in people’s behavior, reflecting voluntary or government mandated isolation. Over our sample period, neither mutation nor vaccination are major factors, so one can attribute variation in the transmission rate to variations in behavior. Evidence based on panel data models explaining transmission rates for nine European countries indicates that the diversity of outcomes resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandatory containment measures, voluntary precautionary isolation, and the economic incentives that gov-ernments provided to support isolation. These effects are precisely estimated and robust to various assumptions. As a result, countries with seemingly different social distancing policies achieved quite similar outcomes in terms of the reproduction number. These results imply that ignoring the voluntary component of social distancing could introduce an upward bias in the estimates of the effects of lock-downs and support policies on the transmission rates.JEL ClassificationD0, F6, C4, I120, E7

scholarly journals Estimation of COVID-19 transmission rates in California and the U.S. with reporting delays

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Worden ◽  
Rae Wannier ◽  
Micaela Neus ◽  
Jennifer C. Kwan ◽  
Alex Y. Ge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
The U.S

We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 transmission in counties and regions of California and in states of the United States, using the Wallinga-Teunis method of estimations applied to publicly available data. The serial interval distribution assumed incorporates wide uncertainty in delays from symptom onset to case reporting. This assumption contributes smoothing and a small but meaningful increase in numerical estimates of reproduction numbers due to the likely existence of secondary cases not yet reported. Transmission in many areas of the U.S. may not yet be controlled, including areas in which case counts appear to be stable or slowly declining.

scholarly journals Throughput Optimal Scheduling Over Time-Varying Channels in the Presence of Heavy-Tailed Traffic

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 2896-2909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna Jagannathan ◽  
Mihalis G. Markakis ◽  
Eytan Modiano ◽  
John N. Tsitsiklis
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Time Varying Channels ◽  
Over Time
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