scholarly journals Effect of time varying transmission rates on the coupled dynamics of epidemic and awareness over a multiplex network

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 113125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vikram Sagar ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Abhijit Sen
Keyword(s):  
Time Varying ◽  
Coupled Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Multiplex Network

scholarly journals Coupled Dynamic Model of Resource Diffusion and Epidemic Spreading in Time-Varying Multiplex Networks

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ping Huang ◽  
Xiao-Long Chen ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Shi-Min Cai
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Resource Depletion ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Coupled Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Social Networks ◽  
Multiplex Network

In the real world, individual resources are crucial for patients when epidemics outbreak. Thus, the coupled dynamics of resource diffusion and epidemic spreading have been widely investigated when the recovery of diseases significantly depends on the resources from neighbors in static social networks. However, the social relationships of individuals are time-varying, which affects such coupled dynamics. For that, we propose a coupled resource-epidemic (RNR-SIS) dynamic model (coupled model for short) on a time-varying multiplex network to synchronously simulate the resource diffusion and epidemic spreading in dynamic social networks. The equilibrium analysis of the coupled model is conducted in a general scenario where the resource generation varies between susceptible and infected states and the recovery rate changes between resourceful and noresource states. By using the microscopic Markov chain approach and Monte Carlo simulations, we determine a probabilistic framework of the intralayer and interlayer dynamic processes of the coupled model and obtain the outbreak threshold of epidemic spreading. Meanwhile, the experimental results show the trivially asymmetric interactions between resource diffusion and epidemic spreading. They also indicate that the stronger activity heterogeneity and the larger contact capacity of individuals in the resource layer can more greatly promote resource diffusion, effectively suppressing epidemic spreading. However, these two individual characters in the epidemic layer can cause more resource depletion, which greatly promotes epidemic spreading. Furthermore, we also find that the contact capacity finitely impacts the coupled dynamics of resource diffusion and epidemic spreading.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Chudik ◽  
M. Hashem Pesaran ◽  
Alessandro Rebucci
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Moment Condition ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Linear Interaction ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

AbstractThis paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on changes in the behavior of the virus, re-flecting mutations and vaccinations, and changes in people’s behavior, reflecting voluntary or government mandated isolation. Over our sample period, neither mutation nor vaccination are major factors, so one can attribute variation in the transmission rate to variations in behavior. Evidence based on panel data models explaining transmission rates for nine European countries indicates that the diversity of outcomes resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandatory containment measures, voluntary precautionary isolation, and the economic incentives that gov-ernments provided to support isolation. These effects are precisely estimated and robust to various assumptions. As a result, countries with seemingly different social distancing policies achieved quite similar outcomes in terms of the reproduction number. These results imply that ignoring the voluntary component of social distancing could introduce an upward bias in the estimates of the effects of lock-downs and support policies on the transmission rates.JEL ClassificationD0, F6, C4, I120, E7

scholarly journals Estimation of COVID-19 transmission rates in California and the U.S. with reporting delays

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Worden ◽  
Rae Wannier ◽  
Micaela Neus ◽  
Jennifer C. Kwan ◽  
Alex Y. Ge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
The U.S

We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers of COVID-19 transmission in counties and regions of California and in states of the United States, using the Wallinga-Teunis method of estimations applied to publicly available data. The serial interval distribution assumed incorporates wide uncertainty in delays from symptom onset to case reporting. This assumption contributes smoothing and a small but meaningful increase in numerical estimates of reproduction numbers due to the likely existence of secondary cases not yet reported. Transmission in many areas of the U.S. may not yet be controlled, including areas in which case counts appear to be stable or slowly declining.

Time-varying multiplex network: Intralayer and interlayer synchronization

2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarbendu Rakshit ◽  
Soumen Majhi ◽  
Bidesh K. Bera ◽  
Sudeshna Sinha ◽  
Dibakar Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Time Varying ◽  
Multiplex Network

scholarly journals Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e1008124
Author(s):  
Mikael Jagan ◽  
Michelle S. deJonge ◽  
Olga Krylova ◽  
David J. D. Earn
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Fast Estimation ◽  
Estimation Of Time

scholarly journals Full-spectrum dynamics of the coronavirus disease outbreak in Wuhan, China: a modeling study of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingjie Hao ◽  
Shanshan Cheng ◽  
Degang Wu ◽  
Tangchun Wu ◽  
Xihong Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Credible Interval ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Population Movements ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACTVigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have largely suppressed the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the transmission dynamics and evaluate the impact of interventions using 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases from December 8, 2019 till March 8, 2020, accounting for time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates, and population movements. The effective reproductive number R0 dropped from 3.89 (95% credible interval: 3.79-4.00) before intervention to 0.14 (0.11-0.28) after full-scale multi-8 pronged interventions. By projection, the interventions reduced the total infections in Wuhan by 96.5% till March 8. Furthermore, we estimated that 79% (lower bound: 60%) of the total infections were unascertained, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. The probability of resurgence was 0.22 and 0.10 based on models with 79% and 60% infections unascertained, respectively, assuming interventions were lifted after a 14-day period of no new ascertained infections. These results provide important implications for continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain the outbreak.

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