Positive signs emerge in China's second-quarter GDP

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Content Type

Significance This puts the economy on track for meeting the government's goal of 'approximately 7%' growth in 2015. The GDP figures soothe jangled nerves after a stock market rout that saw the nominal value of the Shanghai stock market fall by 3 trillion dollars. Impacts The stabilising economy and firm policy response should stabilise oil prices as fears of a hard landing ease. Improved momentum in housing sales will help fiscal revenues, likely to be spent on infrastructure investment and health projects. Emerging-market exporters to China will need to adapt to the economy's changing composition.

Russian stock market is unlikely to repeat 2019 gains

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Private Firm ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Stock Market

Subject The Russian stock market. Significance The Russian stock market offered high returns last year, as the Moscow stock exchange posted the highest annual growth of any of its emerging-market peers. The momentum carried over into January and the market reacted positively to a change in government, but the spread of the new coronavirus hit global oil prices. Impacts Low and declining Russian interest rates will encourage further investment inflows into equities. New IPO issuance will improve large firms' financial firepower. Output growth by Novatek should keep it in top position as Russia's most valuable private firm.

Investor sentiment antecedents

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Specific Factors

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Causal Path

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

China and 'Grexit' risks weigh on EMs globally

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Measures

Significance This month, 3 trillion dollars had been wiped off the value of all listed companies since a seven-year high on June 12, undermining confidence in the government's ability to steer the market. These developments along with the lingering risk of a Greek exit ('Grexit') from the euro-area, despite the provisional agreement reached on July 12, are taking a toll on emerging market (EM) asssets more broadly. Impacts The emergency measures aimed at stemming the sell-off in Chinese equities will help stabilise the stock market. Foreign investors' exposure to China's retail-based equity market is likely to remain limited. The renewed Brent crude price fall, down 14.2% since early May, will pressure oil exporters' currencies while benefiting oil importers.

Central Europe's lower yields may dampen bond outflows

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions

Subject QE’s influence on Central Europe’s bond markets. Significance Hawkish signals from the ECB are adding to recent strains on global bond markets, causing German ten-year Bund yields to shoot up to their highest levels since July. The sell-off is contributing to sharp outflows from Central Europe’s local debt markets, already under pressure as monetary tightening starts in the region; the Czech Republic, which has raised rates twice since August, is suffering the largest withdrawals. However, the absence of large inflows since the ECB started quantitative easing (QE) in 2015 could help mitigate the fallout from its end. Impacts As OPEC members reaffirm their commitment to production cuts, oil prices are shooting up to their highest level in nearly three years. Sales of speculative-grade US corporate debt have had their strongest New Year since 2014, a sign of enduring demand for high-yield bonds. The three-year low in the dollar index will help keep financial conditions loose and buoy up emerging market currencies.

Bubble footprints in the Malaysian stock market: are they rational?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilbert V. Nartea ◽  
Muhammand A. Cheema
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Duration Dependence ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Rational Bubbles ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
Investor Behaviour

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Malaysian stock market in light of contradictory results presented in previous studies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use descriptive statistics, explosiveness tests and the duration dependence test. They use an expanded data set that encompasses at least two alleged bubble episodes addressing a significant limitation of previous studies. The authors use both monthly and weekly returns addressing concerns about the sensitivity of duration dependence test results to the use of monthly versus weekly returns, as well as a battery of alternative measures of returns. Findings – The authors detect bubble footprints but they do not appear to be rational. They found no evidence of rational speculative bubbles over the sample period regardless of whether monthly or weekly returns was used. The authors suggest that if there were bubbles in the Malaysian stock market, they might have been caused by irrational investor behaviour. The authors’ results do not support the suggestion that the duration dependence test is sensitive to the use of monthly versus weekly returns. Practical implications – Despite the absence of rational bubbles in the Malaysian stock market, the faint bubble footprints detected still suggest caution for investors, as the authors cannot categorically rule out the presence of irrational bubbles. Originality/value – This paper clarifies conflicting results of previous studies. It also contributes to the literature on bubble testing by presenting new evidence from an emerging market refuting the claim that duration dependence test results are sensitive to the use of either weekly or monthly returns.

Colombia's oil sector will weather price slump

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Success Story ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Production ◽  
Oil Sector

Subject The Colombian oil sector. Significance Colombia's oil industry has been a success story, with crude oil production running at close to 1 million barrels per day (b/d) and playing an important part in the country's economy. However, that very success and its positive economic impact is now creating real challenges for the country, following the precipitate fall in the global oil price. Impacts As the transition to peace reduces pipeline vulnerability, infrastructure investment may increase. Improved refining capacity will reduce Colombia's reliance on diesel and petrol imports, and may enable higher-value exports. An extended period of low oil prices could encourage more diversification and investment in other sectors.

Turkey’s new economic team acts to restore credibility

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Interest ◽  
The Eu

Significance In one of the most significant changes in direction in a major emerging market (EM) in recent years, newly appointed TCMB Governor Naci Agbal has tightened monetary policy dramatically while abandoning a convoluted system of multiple interest rates. With another technocrat, Lufti Elvan, appointed finance minister, monetary policy could be returning to normality. Impacts A Biden administration is expected to prove unaccommodating towards Turkey, especially given its purchase of a Russian air defence system. This may be leading Erdogan to extend feelers to the EU, recently promising reforms and insisting Turkey is an “inseparable” part of Europe. Anti-coronavirus vaccines’ late-stage trial results are encouraging market optimism, with the US stock market hitting a record this month.

Oil and risk premia in equity markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-723
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Riza Demirer ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Predictive Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Factor Returns

Purpose This study aims to explore the oil–stock market nexus from a novel angle by examining the predictive role of oil prices over the excess returns associated with the market, size, book-to-market and momentum factors via bivariate cross-quantilograms. Design/methodology/approach This study makes use of the bivariate cross-quantilogram methodology recently developed by Han et al. (2016) to analyze the predictability patterns across the oil and stock markets by focusing on various quantiles that formally distinguish between normal, bull and bear as well as extreme market states. Findings The study analysis of systematic risk premia across the four regions shows that crude oil returns indeed capture predictive information regarding excess factor returns in stock markets, particularly those associated with market, size and momentum factors. However, the predictive power of oil return over excess factor returns is asymmetric and primarily concentrated on extreme quantiles, suggesting that large fluctuations in oil prices capture markedly different predictive information over stock market risk premia during up and down states of the oil market. Practical implications The findings have significant implications for the profitability of factor- or style-based active portfolio strategies and suggest that the predictive information contained in oil market fluctuations could be used to enhance returns via conditional strategies based on these predictability patterns. Originality/value This study contributes to the vast literature on the oil–stock market nexus from a novel perspective by exploring the effect of oil price fluctuations on the risk premia associated with the systematic risk factors including market, size, value and momentum.

scholarly journals Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (48) ◽  
pp. 241-265
Author(s):  
Júlio Lobão
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
American Depository Receipts ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Depository Receipts ◽  
Financial Events

Purpose The literature provides extensive evidence for seasonality in stock market returns, but is almost non-existent concerning the potential seasonality in American depository receipts (ADRs). To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine a number of seasonal effects in the market for ADRs. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines four ADRs for the period from April 1999 to March 2017 to look for signs of eight important seasonal anomalies. The authors follow the standard methodology of using dummy variables for the time period of interest to capture excess returns. For comparison, the same analysis on two US stock market indices is conducted. Findings The results show the presence of a highly significant pre-holiday effect in all return series, which does not seem to be justified by risk. Moreover, turn-of-the-month effects, monthly effects and day-of-the-week effects were detected in some of the ADRs. The seasonality patterns under analysis tended to be stronger in emerging market-based ADRs. Research limitations/implications Overall, the results show that significant seasonal patterns were present in the price dynamics of ADRs. Moreover, the findings lend support to the idea that emerging markets are less efficient than developed stock markets. Originality/value This is the most comprehensive study to date for indication of seasonal anomalies in the market for ADRs. The authors use an extensive sample that includes recent significant financial events such as the 2007/2008 financial crisis and consider ADRs with different characteristics, which allows to draw comparisons between the differential price dynamics arising in developed market-based ADRs and in the ADRs whose underlying securities are traded in emerging markets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document