A regression discontinuity design analysis of the incumbency advantage and tenure in the U.S. House

2009 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Mark Butler
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Design Analysis ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
The U.S

How Much of the Incumbency Advantage is Due to Scare-Off?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 493-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Hall ◽  
James M. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
State Legislative

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the degree to which incumbents scare off challengers with previous officeholder experience. The estimates indicate a surprisingly small amount of scare-off, at least in cases where the previous election was nearly tied. As Lee and others have shown (and as we confirm for our samples) the estimated party incumbency advantage in these same cases is quite large—in fact, it is about as large as the average incumbency advantage for all races found using other approaches. Drawing from previous estimates of the electoral value of officeholder experience, we thus calculate that scare-off in these cases accounts for only about 5–7 percent of the party incumbency advantage. We show that these patterns are similar in elections for US House seats, statewide offices and US senate seats, and state legislative seats.

Did Gainful Employment Regulations Result in College and Program Closures?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Robert Kelchen ◽  
Zhuoyao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Federal Funding ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Federal Financial Aid ◽  
Gainful Employment ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Lower Likelihood ◽  
The U.S

For decades, the federal government has expected vocationally-focused programs in higher education, especially among for-profit colleges, to lead to gainful employment in a profession. In the mid-2010s, the U.S. Department of Education developed gainful employment (GE) regulations that sought to tie a program's federal financial aid eligibility to graduates’ debt-to-earnings ratios. We use a regression discontinuity design to examine whether for-profit programs’ performance on GE was associated with the likelihood of closing the program or college. Although the regulations were repealed before any program lost federal funding, we find that passing GE was associated with a lower likelihood of program and college closures.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

scholarly journals How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaakko Meriläinen ◽  
Leandro De Magalhães ◽  
Dominik Hangartner ◽  
Salomo Hirvonen ◽  
Nelson Ruiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage

scholarly journals The Effect of Electing Women on Future Female Candidate Selection Patterns: Findings from a Regression Discontinuity Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jankowski ◽  
Kamil Marcinkiewicz ◽  
Anna Gwiazda
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Contagion Effect ◽  
Representation System ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Female Candidate

AbstractIn this article, we address the question of how electing women to national or subnational parliaments affects future female candidate selection in an open-list proportional representation system, using the example of Poland. We consider three potential effects of electing a woman. First, based on existing theories of the incumbency advantage, elected women should have higher chances of reselection and reelection in future elections (incumbency effect). Second, as a result of becoming more powerful within their party, elected women might have a stronger influence on future list composition, and thus more women should run for office on these lists (empowerment effect). Finally, we argue that other parties might adjust their candidate selection patterns in response to the election of women on other party lists (contagion effect). We find strong evidence for the incumbency effect and some support for the contagion effect. The empowerment hypothesis, however, finds no empirical support.

How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-55
Author(s):  
Manasi Deshpande ◽  
Itzik Fadlon ◽  
Colin Gray
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Suggestive Evidence ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
The U.S

Abstract We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement and find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers' responses to the FRA.

scholarly journals Political Dynasties and the Incumbency Advantage in Party-Centered Environments

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 706-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
JON H. FIVA ◽  
DANIEL M. SMITH
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Organizational Networks ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Level Data

A handful of recent studies have investigated the causal effect of incumbency on dynasty formation in candidate-centered electoral contexts. We use candidate-level data and a regression discontinuity design to estimate the incumbency advantage and its relation to dynasty formation in the party-centered, closed-list, proportional-representation setting of Norway. The results indicate that the incumbency advantage exists even in this party-centered environment; however, in contrast to recent findings for the United States and the Philippines, we find no evidence that incumbency is important to the formation of dynasties. This finding underscores the need for more research into the role of internal party organizational networks in the perpetuation of political dynasties.

A Note on Close Elections and Regression Analysis of the Party Incumbency Advantage

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Peter M. Aronow ◽  
David R. Mayhew ◽  
Winston Lin
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
The Us

AbstractMuch research has recently been devoted to understanding the effects of party incumbency following close elections, typically using a regression discontinuity design. Researchers have demonstrated that close elections in the US House of Representatives may systematically favor certain types of candidates, and that a research design that focuses on close elections may therefore be inappropriate for estimation of the incumbency advantage. We demonstrate that any issues raised with the study of close elections may be equally applicable to the ordinary least squares analysis of electoral data, even when the sample contains all elections. When vote share is included as part of a covariate control strategy, the estimate produced by an ordinary least squares regression that includes all elections either exactly reproduces or approximates the regression discontinuity estimate.

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