Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with first-order bivariate vector autoregression time-series demand model

2017 ◽  
Vol 78 ◽  
pp. 59-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kittiwat Sirikasemsuk ◽  
Huynh Trung Luong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
First Order

scholarly journals Measure and Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain When Demand Correlation Exists between Two Market Groups Under the First-Order Moving-Average Demand Processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.13) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Kittiwat Sirikasemsuk ◽  
Sarawut Sirikasemsuk
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Chain Structure ◽  
Distribution Centers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
First Order ◽  
Demand Correlation ◽  
Demand Processes

With supply chains becoming increasingly global, the issue of bullwhip effect, a phenomenon attributable to demand fluctuation in the upstream section of the supply chains, has received greater attention from many researchers. The phenomenon in which the variation of upstream members' orders is amplified than the variation of downstream members' demands in the supply chain is called the bullwhip effect (BWEF). Most of existing research studies did not realize the demand dependency of market demands. Thus, this research focused on the study of the influence of the demand correlation coefficient between two market groups on the BWEF. The incoming demand processes are assumed the separate first-order moving-average, [MA(1)] demand patterns. The scope of the supply chain structure used in this research is composed of one manufacturer and two distribution centers. The general result reveals that the coefficient of correlation is one of several factors affecting the BWEF. 

scholarly journals Empirical Insights from a Study on Outlier Preserving Value Generalization in Animated Choropleth Maps

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 208
Author(s):  
Christoph Traun ◽  
Manuela Larissa Schreyer ◽  
Gudrun Wallentin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
First Order ◽  
Choropleth Maps ◽  
Temporal Generalization ◽  
Perceptual Limits ◽  
Local Outlier

Time series animation of choropleth maps easily exceeds our perceptual limits. In this empirical research, we investigate the effect of local outlier preserving value generalization of animated choropleth maps on the ability to detect general trends and local deviations thereof. Comparing generalization in space, in time, and in a combination of both dimensions, value smoothing based on a first order spatial neighborhood facilitated the detection of local outliers best, followed by the spatiotemporal and temporal generalization variants. We did not find any evidence that value generalization helps in detecting global trends.

Vertical Contracts in a Supply Chain and the Bullwhip Effect

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Qu ◽  
Horst Raff
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Operations Management ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Price Effect ◽  
Demand Shocks

This paper shows that decentralized supply chains, in which upstream firms use linear wholesale prices, may experience lower upstream production and downstream sales volatility than vertically integrated supply chains and may be less susceptible to the bullwhip effect by which the variance of upstream production exceeds the variance of downstream sales. The reason is that decentralized supply chains exhibit a price effect, whereby upstream producers raise wholesale prices in the case of positive demand shocks and lower wholesale prices in the case of negative demand shocks. Whereas upstream producers benefit from the price effect and, thus, from a dampening of the bullwhip effect, downstream firms may lose, and overall supply chain profit may decrease. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL EKSPANSIF, KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSPANSIF DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Fadhliah Yuniwinsah ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

This study examined the causality between expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia’s using a time series data with vector autoregression model (VAR) in the period of 1969-2018. The results of this study showed that are there is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy but there one-way relationship between them, it is the expansionary monetary policy gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. There is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, It is economic growth gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. And there is no causality between expansionary monetary policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, it is economic growth gives influence to expansionary monetary policy.

scholarly journals Aanalytical Solution for Motion Around Radiated Varying Mass Body

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 8407-8419
Author(s):  
Marwa Abdullah Bin Humaidan ◽  
M. I. El-Saftawy ◽  
H. M. Asiri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Radiation Pressure ◽  
Pressure Effect ◽  
Hamiltonian Function ◽  
Perturbation Techniques ◽  
First Order ◽  
D Operator ◽  
Order Solution ◽  
Delaunay Variables ◽  
Varying Mass

In this work we will add the radiation pressure effect of varying mass body to the model of varying mass Hamiltonian function, including Periastron effect. The problem was formulated in terms of Delaunay variables. The solution of the problem was constructed based on Delava – Hansilmair perturbation techniques. Finally we find the first order solution for the problem as time series by calculating the desired order for the D operator and variables.

scholarly journals The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Idrees ◽  
Saira Tufail
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Time Series Dataset ◽  
The Current Account

According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.

scholarly journals RECONSTRUCTION OF UNIDIRECTIONALLY COUPLED TIME-DELAYED SYSTEMS OF FIRST ORDER FROM TIME SERIES OF THE DRIVEN SYSTEM

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail D. Prokhorov ◽  
◽  
Vladimir I. Ponomarenko ◽  
Ilya V. Sysoev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Delayed Systems ◽  
First Order ◽  
Driven System
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