scholarly journals Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1146-1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kefei You ◽  
Nicholas Sarantis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Dependence on Oil Prices of Russian Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilek Özdemir ◽  
Özge Buzdağlı ◽  
Murat Akdağ ◽  
Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Russian Stock Market ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

In the period after transition, economically full-liberal policy implementations applied by Russia Federation has been taken attention as cyclical movement. No variations of goods are said to be effective about the main reasons about cyclical movement in liberalization. As a kind of indicator of the Russian economy, stock market’s sensitivity to oil prices analyzed. In this context, especially change of oil prices, exchange rate and money supply effects on Russia are analyzed for the period of 1996M1-2015M12. Stationarity of the series is investigated by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root test with multiple structural breaks, existence of cointegration relation between series is tested by Maki (2012) method of cointegration with multiple structural break, and cointegration coefficients are predicted with Dynamic Ordinary Learst Square-DOLS method. Furthermore, causality relations between series are investigated by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) symmetric causality test. As a result, Russian stock market is positively affected by oil prices, real effective exchange rate and real money supply. Also causality tests showed that bidirectional causality relation found on stock market with oil prices and real effective exchange rate, and unidirectional causality from real money supply to stock market.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

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