scholarly journals Error covariance bounds for suboptimal filters with Lipschitzian drift and Poisson-sampled measurements

Automatica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 109280
Author(s):  
Aneel Tanwani ◽  
Olga Yufereva
Keyword(s):  
Error Covariance ◽  
Sampled Measurements ◽  
Suboptimal Filters

Effects of Accounting-Method Choices on Subjective Performance-Measure Weighting Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Precision and Error Covariance

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 1163-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjani Krishnan ◽  
Joan L. Luft ◽  
Michael D. Shields
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Incentive System ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Psychology Theory ◽  
Optimal Weighting ◽  
Similarity And Difference

Performance-measure weights for incentive compensation are often determined subjectively. Determining these weights is a cognitively difficult task, and archival research shows that observed performance-measure weights are only partially consistent with the predictions of agency theory. Ittner et al. (2003) have concluded that psychology theory can help to explain such inconsistencies. In an experimental setting based on Feltham and Xie (1994), we use psychology theories of reasoning to predict distinctive patterns of similarity and difference between optimal and actual subjective performance-measure weights. The following predictions are supported. First, in contrast to a number of prior studies, most individuals' decisions are significantly influenced by the performance measures' error variance (precision) and error covariance. Second, directional errors in the use of these measurement attributes are relatively frequent, resulting in a mean underreaction to an accounting change that alters performance measurement error. Third, individuals seem insufficiently aware that a change in the accounting for one measure has spillover effects on the optimal weighting of the other measure in a two-measure incentive system. In consequence, they make performance-measure weighting decisions that are likely to result in misallocations of agent effort.

scholarly journals Unbiased least-squares modification of Stokes’ formula

2020 ◽  
Vol 94 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars E. Sjöberg
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Data ◽  
Harmonic Series ◽  
Local Error ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Spherical Cap ◽  
Local Variance ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Stokes Formula ◽  
Gravity Signal ◽  
High Degree

Abstract As the KTH method for geoid determination by combining Stokes integration of gravity data in a spherical cap around the computation point and a series of spherical harmonics suffers from a bias due to truncation of the data sets, this method is based on minimizing the global mean square error (MSE) of the estimator. However, if the harmonic series is increased to a sufficiently high degree, the truncation error can be considered as negligible, and the optimization based on the local variance of the geoid estimator makes fair sense. Such unbiased types of estimators, derived in this article, have the advantage to the MSE solutions not to rely on the imperfectly known gravity signal degree variances, but only the local error covariance matrices of the observables come to play. Obviously, the geoid solution defined by the local least variance is generally superior to the solution based on the global MSE. It is also shown, at least theoretically, that the unbiased geoid solutions based on the KTH method and remove–compute–restore technique with modification of Stokes formula are the same.

Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter: Theoretical Aspects

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (6) ◽  
pp. 1710-1726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milija Zupanski
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Cost Function ◽  
Ensemble Data Assimilation ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Ensemble Data ◽  
Analysis Error ◽  
Nonlinear Observation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter

Abstract A new ensemble-based data assimilation method, named the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), is presented. The analysis solution maximizes the likelihood of the posterior probability distribution, obtained by minimization of a cost function that depends on a general nonlinear observation operator. The MLEF belongs to the class of deterministic ensemble filters, since no perturbed observations are employed. As in variational and ensemble data assimilation methods, the cost function is derived using a Gaussian probability density function framework. Like other ensemble data assimilation algorithms, the MLEF produces an estimate of the analysis uncertainty (e.g., analysis error covariance). In addition to the common use of ensembles in calculation of the forecast error covariance, the ensembles in MLEF are exploited to efficiently calculate the Hessian preconditioning and the gradient of the cost function. A sufficient number of iterative minimization steps is 2–3, because of superior Hessian preconditioning. The MLEF method is well suited for use with highly nonlinear observation operators, for a small additional computational cost of minimization. The consistent treatment of nonlinear observation operators through optimization is an advantage of the MLEF over other ensemble data assimilation algorithms. The cost of MLEF is comparable to the cost of existing ensemble Kalman filter algorithms. The method is directly applicable to most complex forecast models and observation operators. In this paper, the MLEF method is applied to data assimilation with the one-dimensional Korteweg–de Vries–Burgers equation. The tested observation operator is quadratic, in order to make the assimilation problem more challenging. The results illustrate the stability of the MLEF performance, as well as the benefit of the cost function minimization. The improvement is noted in terms of the rms error, as well as the analysis error covariance. The statistics of innovation vectors (observation minus forecast) also indicate a stable performance of the MLEF algorithm. Additional experiments suggest the amplified benefit of targeted observations in ensemble data assimilation.

Enhancing the impact of IASI observations through an updated observation-error covariance matrix

2016 ◽  
Vol 142 (697) ◽  
pp. 1767-1780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Bormann ◽  
Massimo Bonavita ◽  
Rossana Dragani ◽  
Reima Eresmaa ◽  
Marco Matricardi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Covariance Matrix ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Error Covariance Matrix ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
The Impact

Improved square-root cubature information filter

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulong Huang ◽  
Yonggang Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Lin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Sampling Interval ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Sigma Point ◽  
Theoretical Comparison ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Information Filter ◽  
Scale Matrix

In this paper, a theoretical comparison between existing the sigma-point information filter (SPIF) framework and the unscented information filter (UIF) framework is presented. It is shown that the SPIF framework is identical to the sigma-point Kalman filter (SPKF). However, the UIF framework is not identical to the classical SPKF due to the neglect of one-step prediction errors of measurements in the calculation of state estimation error covariance matrix. Thus SPIF framework is more reasonable as compared with UIF framework. According to the theoretical comparison, an improved cubature information filter (CIF) is derived based on the superior SPIF framework. Square-root CIF (SRCIF) is also developed to improve the numerical accuracy and stability of the proposed CIF. The proposed SRCIF is applied to a target tracking problem with large sampling interval and high turn rate, and its performance is compared with the existing SRCIF. The results show that the proposed SRCIF is more reliable and stable as compared with the existing SRCIF. Note that it is impractical for information filters in large-scale applications due to the enormous computational complexity of large-scale matrix inversion, and advanced techniques need to be further considered.

scholarly journals The Impact of Assimilating Satellite Radiance Observations in the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 426
Author(s):  
Zheng Qi Wang ◽  
Roger Randriamampianina
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Current Configuration ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Regional Reanalysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
European Regional

The assimilation of microwave and infrared (IR) radiance satellite observations within numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been an important component in the effort of improving the accuracy of analysis and forecast. Such capabilities were implemented during the development of the high-resolution Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA), funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The CERRA system couples the deterministic system with the ensemble data assimilation to provide periodic updates of the background error covariance matrix. Several key factors for the assimilation of radiances were investigated, including appropriate use of variational bias correction (VARBC), surface-sensitive AMSU-A observations and observation error correlation. Twenty-one-day impact studies during the summer and winter seasons were conducted. Generally, the assimilation of radiances has a small impact on the analysis, while greater impacts are observed on short-range (12 and 24-h) forecasts with an error reduction of 1–2% for the mid and high troposphere. Although, the current configuration provided less accurate forecasts from 09 and 18 UTC analysis times. With the increased thinning distances and the rejection of IASI observation over land, the errors in the analyses and 3 h forecasts on geopotential height were reduced up to 2%.

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