scholarly journals Interpreting, analysing and modelling COVID-19 mortality data

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 1751-1776
Author(s):  
Didier Sornette ◽  
Euan Mearns ◽  
Michael Schatz ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Didier Darcet

Abstract We present results on the mortality statistics of the COVID-19 epidemic in a number of countries. Our data analysis suggests classifying countries in five groups, (1) Western countries, (2) East Block, (3) developed Southeast Asian countries, (4) Northern Hemisphere developing countries and (5) Southern Hemisphere countries. Comparing the number of deaths per million inhabitants, a pattern emerges in which the Western countries exhibit the largest mortality rate. Furthermore, comparing the running cumulative death tolls as the same level of outbreak progress in different countries reveals several subgroups within the Western countries and further emphasises the difference between the five groups. Analysing the relationship between deaths per million and life expectancy in different countries, taken as a proxy of the preponderance of elderly people in the population, a main reason behind the relatively more severe COVID-19 epidemic in the Western countries is found to be their larger population of elderly people, with exceptions such as Norway and Japan, for which other factors seem to dominate. Our comparison between countries at the same level of outbreak progress allows us to identify and quantify a measure of efficiency of the level of stringency of confinement measures. We find that increasing the stringency from 20 to 60 decreases the death count by about 50 lives per million in a time window of 20  days. Finally, we perform logistic equation analyses of deaths as a means of tracking the dynamics of outbreaks in the “first wave” and estimating the associated ultimate mortality, using four different models to identify model error and robustness of results. This quantitative analysis allows us to assess the outbreak progress in different countries, differentiating between those that are at a quite advanced stage and close to the end of the epidemic from those that are still in the middle of it. This raises many questions in terms of organisation, preparedness, governance structure and so on.

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1359
Author(s):  
Yingjie Jin ◽  
Miho Shogenji ◽  
Tetsuyou Watanabe

In this study, we investigated the relationship between toe-area activity and stumbling experiences utilizing our developed sensing system, in order to assess toe-area activity in elderly people with stumbling experiences. The sensing system enables the visualization of the plantar aspect while walking on any surface and under any condition. An image of the plantar aspect is received at a reflecting surface and captured by a camera attached to a clog. The toe-area activity was evaluated by comparing the difference between the toe contact areas at heel-strike and push-off. Thirteen young individuals (nine men and four women, age 22.4 ± 2 years) and nine elderly individuals (five men and four women, age 65.3 ± 2 years) participated in the experiment by walking along a straight line wearing the plantar sensing system on their feet. The analysis found that a low value of the mean toe activity for multiple walking cycles was associated with high stumbling risk, irrespective of age, whereas large variations in toe activity was associated with aging. These results indicate that toe activity can predict stumbling risk irrespective of age. We also found that a large value of the maximum toe activity during multiple walking cycles indicates aging, whereas a low value is associated with high stumbling risk.


2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 176-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders M. Fjell ◽  
Kristine B. Walhovd ◽  
Ivar Reinvang

Seventy-four participants (aged 20–82 years) went through a continuous performance recognition memory task with multiple repetitions of words and non-words while ERPs were recorded from the scalp. The old/new ERP effect (the difference in activation to stimuli correctly recognized as old and stimuli correctly recognized as new) for words but not non-words declined with increasing age in a linear pattern, but the relationship between the old/new effect and age varied throughout the ERP time window. Differences in topography between age groups were manifested in a frontal shift in activation for older age groups. Further, the data point to differences in semantic versus non-semantic processing across the adult life span, and it is concluded that specific cognitive memory processes are differentially involved at different ages.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi Tran ◽  
Eshani Beddewela ◽  
Collins G. Ntim

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between a diverse set of corporate governance (CG) mechanisms and corporate sustainability disclosure (CSD) in Southeast Asian countries under national stakeholder reform. Design/methodology/approach Data analysis is based on 171 of the largest companies across six Southeast Asian countries using a 30-item CSD measure. Findings The authors find that there are wide variations in the levels of CSD across the countries. The findings indicate that board size, board gender diversity, block ownership and the presence of a sustainability committee are significant determinants of CSD. Additionally, whilst more stringent stakeholder governance reform motivates firms to publish more sustainability information, it fails to influence the effectiveness of the board of directors in promoting CSD. Practical implications Findings of this study highlight the essential role internal governance structure plays in monitoring corporate actions and enabling corporations to reduce their legitimacy gap. The findings further encourage regulators and policymakers to question, with utmost importance, the effectiveness of stakeholder reform in making significant organisational changes. Originality/value There is a dearth of studies that examine the CG-CSD nexus in relation to specific institutional characteristics. Existing studies mainly focus on a single country with similar institutional environments and thus limiting the ability to understand the “context specificity” of sustainability content development. This paper provides an overview of stakeholder reform in Southeast Asian countries and empirically substantiates the relationship between CG and CSD across six countries undergoing such reforms in the region.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Agus Iswanto ◽  
Koeswinarno Koeswinarno

The emergence of the issue of halal products, both in the form of food and services, has also led to competition regarding the certification of halal products. Studies on competition between certification bodies have been carried out, but these studies do not focus on the competition that occurs in Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia which is a big market for the halal industry. In Indonesia, the implementation of the regulation of Halal Product Guarantee (HPG) in Law No. 33 2014 still raises problems, including the related issue of inter-organizational relations. This article discusses the relations between organizations based on the interpretation of each party related to the Halal Product Guarantee policy, and the consequences arising from it. This article used new institutional theory, and a semiotics approach as analysis of verbal signs and gestures raised by each of the parties. This article argued that the interpretations of each organizational actor towards the new halal certification policy in Indonesia are driven by different institutional reasons/logics, resulting in contradictions, even conflicts related to the relationship between organizations implementing the policy. The difference in meaning, especially in the connotative meaning, shows the difference in institutional logic. Thus, there is a divergence in meaning. Therefore, it is important to equate significance (meaning/interpretation) to each of the institutions related to Halal Product Guarantee in order to realize the implementation of the regulations properly.


Author(s):  
Jordi Gumà ◽  
Amans Blanes

Objetivo: Explorar el patrón por edad de la relación entre el indicador de salud autopercibida y la mortalidad en las edades posteriores a la juventud (35-79) para hombres y mujeres en seis países europeos con trayectorias de morbilidad diferenciadas: Alemania, Francia, España, Italia, Polonia y Hungría. Métodos y datos: Descripción de los patrones tanto de la prevalencia de mala salud autopercibida como de la diferencia entre las transformaciones logarítmicas de las probabilidades de morir y de la prevalencia de mala salud en los años 2005 y 2009. Los datos proceden de la encuesta sobre Condiciones de Vida en la Unión Europea (EU-SILC) para la salud autopercibida, y de la Human Mortality Database (HMD) para la mortalidad. Resultados: Ambos indicadores muestran un patrón creciente por edad aunque el valor relativo de este incremento no es igual para la mortalidad y para la mala salud. La prevalencia de mala salud autopercibida aumenta con la edad con una intensidad menor que la mortalidad en ambos sexos en todos los países analizados. Este cambio en la relación entre ambos indicadores con la edad muestra valores similares entre mujeres y hombres, menos en el caso de Polonia y Hungría. Conclusiones: El cambio en la relación entre salud percibida y mortalidad con la edad se explicaría mediante la normalización por parte del individuo de la propia morbilidad. El diferente cambio en esta relación entre mujeres y hombres parece deberse a mayores niveles de desigualdad de género en aquellos países donde se observa esta diferencia, aunque estos resultados deberán comprobarse futuros trabajos.Goal: To explore the age pattern of the relationship between self-perceived health and mortality at ages beyond youth (35-79) for men and women in six European countries with different with different patterns of morbidity: Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and Hungary. Methods and data sources: Descriptive analysis of the patterns of both the prevalence of poor self-perceived health and the difference between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality probabilities and the prevalence of poor health in 2005 and 2009. The data about self-perceived health come from the European Union statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC), whereas mortality data come from Human Mortality Database (HMD). Results: Both indicators show a growing pattern by age though the relative value of this increase is not equal in mortality and poor self-perceived health. Poor self-perceived health prevalence rises by age with a lower intensity than mortality for both sexes in all the analysed countries. This change by age in the relationship between both health outcomes shows similar values for women and men, with the exception of Poland and Hungary. Conclusions: The change in the relationship by age between self-perceived health and mortality would be explained by the process of standardization of individual’s morbidity. Different age changes between sexes seem to be related with higher levels of gender inequalities in countries where this difference is observed, though this must be confirmed in future research.


1986 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donna M. Risberg ◽  
Robyn M. Cox

A custom in-the-ear (ITE) hearing aid fitting was compared to two over-the-ear (OTE) hearing aid fittings for each of 9 subjects with mild to moderately severe hearing losses. Speech intelligibility via the three instruments was compared using the Speech Intelligibility Rating (SIR) test. The relationship between functional gain and coupler gain was compared for the ITE and the higher rated OTE instruments. The difference in input received at the microphone locations of the two types of hearing aids was measured for 10 different subjects and compared to the functional gain data. It was concluded that (a) for persons with mild to moderately severe hearing losses, appropriately adjusted custom ITE fittings typically yield speech intelligibility that is equal to the better OTE fitting identified in a comparative evaluation; and (b) gain prescriptions for ITE hearing aids should be adjusted to account for the high-frequency emphasis associated with in-the-concha microphone placement.


2006 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 359-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodríguez-Rodríguez ◽  
Ortega ◽  
López-Sobaler ◽  
Aparicio ◽  
Bermejo ◽  
...  

This study investigated the relationship between the intake of antioxidant nutrients and the suffering of cataracts in 177 institutionalized elderly people (61 men and 116 women) aged ≥ 65 years. Dietary intake was monitored for 7 consecutive days using a "precise individual weighing" method. Subjects, who during their earlier years were exposed by their work to sunlight, had a greater risk of suffering cataracts (OR = 3.2; Cl: 1.1–9.3, P < 0.05) than those who worked indoors. A relationship was found between increased vitamin C intake and a reduced prevalence of cataracts (i.e., when comparing those above P95 for vitamin C intake with those below P5; (OR = 0.08; Cl: 0.01–0.75, P 0.05). Among subjects with cataracts, 12.1% had vitamin C intakes of < 61 mg/day (P10) and only 2.2% had intakes of > 183 mg/day (P95) (p < 0.01). Subjects who consumed > 3290 μg/day (P95) of lutein were less likely to have cataracts (OR = 0.086; Cl: 0.007–1.084; p < 0.05) than those whose consumption was < 256 μg/day (P5). In men, high intakes of zeaxanthin seemed to provide a protective effect against the problem (OR = 0.96; Cl: 0.91–0.99; p < 0.05). The results suggest an association exists between exposure to sunlight and the development of cataracts, and that vitamin C, lutein, and zeaxanthin offer some protection against this disorder.


VASA ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Hanji Zhang ◽  
Dexin Yin ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yezhou Li ◽  
Dejiang Yao ◽  
...  

Summary: Our meta-analysis focused on the relationship between homocysteine (Hcy) level and the incidence of aneurysms and looked at the relationship between smoking, hypertension and aneurysms. A systematic literature search of Pubmed, Web of Science, and Embase databases (up to March 31, 2020) resulted in the identification of 19 studies, including 2,629 aneurysm patients and 6,497 healthy participants. Combined analysis of the included studies showed that number of smoking, hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) in aneurysm patients was higher than that in the control groups, and the total plasma Hcy level in aneurysm patients was also higher. These findings suggest that smoking, hypertension and HHcy may be risk factors for the development and progression of aneurysms. Although the heterogeneity of meta-analysis was significant, it was found that the heterogeneity might come from the difference between race and disease species through subgroup analysis. Large-scale randomized controlled studies of single species and single disease species are needed in the future to supplement the accuracy of the results.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-361
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Grau-Pérez ◽  
J. Guillermo Milán

In Uruguay, Lacanian ideas arrived in the 1960s, into a context of Kleinian hegemony. Adopting a discursive approach, this study researched the initial reception of these ideas and its effects on clinical practices. We gathered a corpus of discursive data from clinical cases and theoretical-doctrinal articles (from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s). In order to examine the effects of Lacanian ideas, we analysed the difference in the way of interpreting the clinical material before and after Lacan's reception. The results of this research illuminate some epistemological problems of psychoanalysis, especially the relationship between theory and clinical practice.


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