Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Rumpf ◽  
Helga Weindl ◽  
Peter Höppe ◽  
Ernst Rauch ◽  
Volker Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Track Simulation

scholarly journals Configuration and Evaluation of a Global Unstructured Mesh Model based on the Variable-Resolution Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yihui Zhou ◽  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
Rucong Yu ◽  
Zhuang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Transition Zone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Mesh Model ◽  
Scale Structures

Abstract. Targeting a long-term effort towards a global weather and climate model with a local refinement function, this study systematically configures and evaluates the performance of an unstructured model based on the variable-resolution (VR) approach. Aided by the idealized dry- and moist-atmosphere tests, the model performance is examined in an intermediate degree of complexity. The dry baroclinic wave simulations suggest that the 3D VR-model can reproduce comparable solutions in the refined regions as a fine-resolution quasi-uniform (QU) mesh model, although the global errors increase. The variation of the mesh resolution in the transition zone does not adversely affect the wave pattern. In the coarse-resolution area, the VR model simulates a similar wave distribution to the low-resolution QU model. Two multi-region refinement approaches, including the hierarchical and polycentric refinement modes, further testify the model performance under a more challenging environment. The moist idealized tropical cyclone test further enables us to examine the model ability in terms of resolving fine-scale structures. It is found that the VR model can have the tropical cyclone stably pass the transition zone in various configurations. A series of sensitivity tests examines the model performance in a hierarchical refinement mode, and the solutions exhibit consistency even when the VR mesh is slightly perturbed by one of the three parameters that control the density function. Moreover, only the finest resolution has a dominant impact on the fine-scale structures in the refined region. The tropical cyclone, starting from the 2nd-refinement region and passing through the inner transition zone, gets intensified and possesses a smaller area coverage in the refined regions, as compared to the QU-mesh model that has the same number of grid points. Such variations are consistent with the behavior that one may observe when uniformly refining the QU-mesh model. Besides the horizontal resolution, the intensity of the tropical cyclone is also influenced by the Smagorinsky horizontal diffusion coefficient. The VR model exhibits higher sensitivity in this regard, suggesting the importance of parameter tuning and proper model configurations.

Towards model-based functional hazard assessment at aircraft level

2011 ◽  
pp. 2402-2409 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Maitrehenry ◽  
S Metge ◽  
Y Ait-Ameur ◽  
P Bieber
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Model Based

scholarly journals On the Use of Ensemble Predictions for Parametric Typhoon Insurance

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kelvin S. Ng ◽  
Gregor C. Leckebusch ◽  
Qian Ye ◽  
Wenwen Ying ◽  
Haoran Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Trigger Points ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Post Disaster

Parametric typhoon insurances are an increasingly used financial tool to mitigate the enormous impact of tropical cyclones, as they can quickly distribute much-needed resources, e.g., for post-disaster recovery. In order to optimise the reliability and efficiency of parametric insurance, it is essential to have well-defined trigger points for any post-disaster payout. This requires a robust localised hazard assessment for a given region. However, due to the rarity of severe, landfalling tropical cyclones, it is difficult to obtain a robust hazard assessment based on historical observations. A recent approach makes use of unrealised, high impact tropical cyclones from state-of-the-art ensemble prediction systems to build a physically consistent event set, which would be equivalent to about 10,000 years of observations. In this study, we demonstrate that (1) alternative trigger points of parametric typhoon insurance can be constructed from a local perspective and the added value of such trigger points can be analysed by comparing with an experimental set-up informed by current practice; (2) the estimation of the occurrence of tropical cyclone-related losses on the provincial level can be improved. We further discuss the potential future development of a general tropical cyclone compound parametric insurance.

Tropical Cyclone Center Automatic Determination Model Based on HY-2 and QuikSCAT Wind Vector Products

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 709-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tangao Hu ◽  
Yiyue Wu ◽  
Gang Zheng ◽  
Dengrong Zhang ◽  
Yuzhou Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Vector ◽  
Automatic Determination ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Center
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