Buffon, the Certainty of Sunrise, and the Probabilistic Reductio ad Absurdum

2001 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 465-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Loveland
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Matthew Rendall

It is sometimes argued in support of discounting future costs and benefits that if we gave the same weight to the future as to the present, we would invest nearly all our income, but never spend it. Rather than enjoying the fruits of our investments, we would always do better to reinvest them. Undiscounted utilitarianism (UU), so the argument goes, is collectively self-defeating. This attempted reductio ad absurdum fails. Regardless of whether each generation successfully followed UU, or merely attempted to follow it, we could never get trapped in endless saving. The real problem is different: without the ability to foresee the end of the world, UU cannot tell us how much to save. Discounting is a defensible response, but only when coupled with a rule against risking catastrophe.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Yang ◽  
Haijun Jiang ◽  
Cheng Hu ◽  
Juan Yu ◽  
Jiarong Li

Abstract In this paper, a novel rumor-spreading model is proposed under bilingual environment and heterogenous networks, which considers that exposures may be converted to spreaders or stiflers at a set rate. Firstly, the nonnegativity and boundedness of the solution for rumor-spreading model are proved by reductio ad absurdum. Secondly, both the basic reproduction number and the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium are systematically discussed. Whereafter, the global stability of rumor-prevailing equilibrium is explored by utilizing Lyapunov method and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Finally, the sensitivity analysis and the numerical simulation are respectively presented to analyze the impact of model parameters and illustrate the validity of theoretical results.


Dialogue ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Gale

David Lewis has shocked the philosophical community with his original version of extreme modal realism according to which “every way that a world could possibly be is a way that some world is”. Logical Space is a plenitude of isolated physical worlds, each being the actualization of some way in which a world could be, that bear neither spatiotemporal nor causal relations to each other. Lewis has given independent, converging arguments for this. One is the argument from the indexicality of actuality, the other an elaborate cost-benefit argument of the inference-to-the-best explanation sort to the effect that a systematic analysis of a number of concepts, including modality, causality, propositions and properties, fares better under his theory than under any rival one that takes a possible world to be either a linguistic entity or an ersatz abstract entity such as a maximal compossible set of properties, propositions or states of affairs. Lewis' legion of critics have confined themselves mostly to attempts at a reductio ad absurdum of his theory or to objections to his various analyses. The indexical argument, on the other hand, has not been subject to careful critical scrutiny. It is the purpose of this paper to show that this argument cannot withstand such scrutiny. Its demise, however, leaves untouched his argument from the explanatory superiority for his extreme modal realism.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
WILFRID HODGES

AbstractIbn Sīnā (11th century, greater Persia) proposed an analysis of arguments by reductio ad absurdum. His analysis contains, perhaps for the first time, a workable method for handling the making and discharging of assumptions in a formal proof. We translate the relevant text of Ibn Sīnā and put his analysis into the context of his general approach to logic.


1979 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Edgar

Zeno's challenge to the usual mathematical characterization of extension is still with us. Butchvarov, considering the limits of ontological analysis, writes, “I shall not explore [the decision to accept the infinite regress in which the pursuit of the analytical ideal is involved], beyond noting that the infinite divisibility of space is the reductio ad absurdum of any attempt to understand space in terms of its ultimate, simple parts.” Grünbaum states this problem, commonly known as the Measure Paradox, concisely, “[How can one conceive] of an extended continuum as an aggregate of unextended elements ?”


1976 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 734-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin A. Winckler

Professor Nathan's pungent essay raises important issues for the politics of development in general and for drawing comparative conclusions from the Chinese case in particular. His cleansing scepticism demolishes some positions which may be held by authors in the China field and reminds others that the unstated assumptions in their models need better articulation. However he goes too far. What needs to be re-established is that clear and modest formulations of short-term recurrence, interdependence among policies, and two-sided policy disagreement are not avoidable errors but indispensable heuristic devices in the conceptual repertoire of China watchers. In fact it would be a great disservice to stùdies of contemporary China and to comparative study of the Chinese case if Professor Nathan were allowed to succeed in his attempt to identify all such analyses with his reductio ad absurdum of some of them. Let us try to rescue the possibility of constructive social science modelling of the three principal issues Professor Nathan raises.


1977 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-371
Author(s):  
Dale G. Hardman

This reports a state legislator's conversation with a judge and a prosecutor about capital punishment. The notion that the death penalty can be made deterrent if certain principles of learning are applied is examined and, by reductio ad absurdum, is disproved: the fun damental requirement for effectiveness of the death penalty is that barbarous forms of public execution be established. The obvious point that such savage methods never worked originally is left unstated.


Author(s):  
Xudong FANG

LANGUAGE NOTE | Document text in Chinese; abstract also in English.本文由兩個部分構成,第一部分闡述了不反對同性婚姻合法化的理由,逐一討論了對同性婚姻合法化的五種反對意見,認為它們都不成立。第二部分論述了儒家推崇異性婚姻的原因,其主要考慮是同性婚姻不能像異性婚姻那樣可以提供倫理的完整性。作者強調,作為公民權利,同性婚姻可以被自由追求,但作為儒家則以異性婚姻為婚姻的理想模式。前者事關權利,後者事關“善”,有各自的界限,不得逾越。This paper consists of two parts. In the first part, the author refutes, one by one, five objections to the legalization of same-sex marriage, including arguments grounded in naturalness, origin, reductio ad absurdum, compromising traditional marriage, and Jiang Qing’s doctrine of particular human rights. The strongest reason for advocating the legalization of same-sex marriage is the doctrine of equal rights. As contemporary people, we have no reason to deny that all individuals have equal rights. The second part discusses why Confucianism prefers heterosexual marriage. The main consideration is that same-sex marriages cannot provide ethical integrity, as heterosexual marriages do. The author emphasizes that, as a civil right, same-sex marriage can be pursued freely, but for a Confucian, heterosexual marriage is the ideal mode of marriage. The former concerns what is “right,” whereas the latter relates to what is “good.” There is an insurmountable boundary between right and good.DOWNLOAD HISTORY | This article has been downloaded 423 times in Digital Commons before migrating into this platform.


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