scholarly journals An analytical cost estimation model for the design of axisymmetric components with open-die forging technology

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1869-1892
Author(s):  
Federico Campi ◽  
Marco Mandolini ◽  
Claudio Favi ◽  
Emanuele Checcacci ◽  
Michele Germani
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Model ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Manufacturing Process ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Average Deviation ◽  
Die Forging ◽  
Geometrical Features ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Open Die Forging

Abstract Open-die forging is a manufacturing process commonly used for realising simple shaped components with high mechanical performances and limited capability in terms of production volume. To date, an analytical model for estimating the costs of components manufactured with this technology is still an open issue. The paper aims to define an analytical model for cost estimation of axisymmetric components manufactured by open-die forging technology. The model is grounded on the analysis of geometrical features available at the design stage providing a detailed cost breakdown in relation to all the process phases and the raw material. The model allows predicting product cost, linking geometrical features and cost items, to carry out design-to-cost actions oriented to the reduction of manufacturing cost. The model is mainly conceived for design engineers, cost engineers and buyers, respectively, for improving the product design, the manufacturing process and the supply chain. Cost model and related schemas for collecting equations and data are presented, including the approach for sizing the raw material and a set of rules for modelling the related cost. Finally, analytic equations for modelling the cost of the whole forging process (i.e. billet cutting, heating, pre-smoothing, smoothing, upsetting, max-shoulder cogging, necking and shoulders cogging) are reported. The cost model has been tested on eight cylindrical parts such as discs and shafts with different shapes, dimensions and materials. Two forge masters have been involved in the testing phase. The absolute average deviation between the actual and estimated costs is approximately 4% for raw material and 21% for the process. The absolute average deviation on the total cost (raw material and manufacturing process) is approximately 5%.

Adaptive Control for Intelligent Open Die Forging

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wensheng Liu ◽  
T. J. Nye
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Manufacturing Process ◽  
Flexible Manufacturing ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Geometry Model ◽  
Die Forging ◽  
Process Feedback ◽  
Open Die Forging

Open die forging is a manufacturing process with a number of advantages; in particular it is an inherently flexible manufacturing process that makes efficient use of raw material. A fundamental drawback of this process, however, is the difficulty found in creating forging programs to control part manipulation and forming steps. A-priori approaches to creating these programs, such as by using FEM simulations or using modeling materials, are slow and have a strong tendency for errors to accumulate when predicting the results of consecutive forming steps. In this paper we present a new approach in which process feedback is used between forming steps to update a part geometry model that allows the forming sequence to be adjusted adaptively. This approach has been implemented in a simulated forging cell that uses non-linear FEM analyses to predict the effects of each forming step. A fully adaptive control scheme has been implemented that efficiently forges bars of one cross sectional shape into another shape, such as square to round or hexagonal. Programming the forging system with this scheme has proved particularly simple; the shape of the raw material is measured, and a desired shape is specified. Physical experiments have confirmed the simulation results.

A Study on the Cost Estimation of Mould Manufacturing Processes for Cosmetic Cap

2012 ◽  
Vol 538-541 ◽  
pp. 1158-1161
Author(s):  
Sang Bong Park
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Manufacturing Process ◽  
Tool Material ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Cost Calculation ◽  
Machining Time ◽  
Unit Process ◽  
Time Calculation ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Cost

It has conducted a study on the cost calculation of spray component mould manufacturing process. In general, it is the present state that calculating machining time and cost for a unit process in mould manufacturing process depends on past experiences. In other words, it does not go beyond the level of computing and management by estimation based on the data conducted in the past. Accordingly, in the development of mould and new products tried for the first time, the cost calculation is not reasonable and thus a lot of time is needed. That is to say, not being able to actively and reasonably respond to the needs of the market that are changing every moment, the loss of management and money due to losing opportunities is frequently taking place. In this context, It have developed and applied a system that can reasonably calculate the cost by taking account of machining time calculation theory, machine, tool, material and working environment. As a result, calculating the time needed for a unit process in mould manufacturing process is possible, and it is possible to classify major processes and suggest alternatives in management. The system developed in this study used Visual Basic Language and SQL Database under Windows environment.

scholarly journals Estimasi Biaya Konseptual Pada Jembatan Beton Bertulang Dengan Metode Indek Biaya

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Bagyo Mulyono ◽  
Paulus Setyo Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Cost Index ◽  
Reinforced Concrete Bridge ◽  
Construction Project Cost ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Available Information

<p class="DRAbstrak">Cost estimation is the art of estimating the amount of cost required for an activity based on available information. The conceptual cost estimate is an early stage in planning a construction project. This estimate provides the cost that must be budgeted for a construction project. Cost conceptual estimates have low accuracy because the time of calculation and available information is limited. This study aims to obtain a conceptual model of the conceptual cost of short-spaced bridges. The method used is the cost index. The cost index is a figure indicating the cost per m2 of bridges at a given time. The required data are contract documents and drawings design that are built in 2012 - 2015 in Banyumas residency area. Span of bridge 4 - 38.8 meters and width of bridge 2 - 7 meters with caisson  foundation. The data were obtained from Dinas Bina Marga and Public Works Agency. The results showed that the conceptual cost model of reinforced concrete bridge with caisson foundation was BJiL = (100.540.56t2-404.528.636,58t + 406.914.286.088,58) x P x W, with t = year, P = span bridge, and W = bridge width. The error value of validation of this model is 2.31%.</p>

scholarly journals Advances and Breakthroughs in Titanium forgings for critical structural parts

2020 ◽  
Vol 321 ◽  
pp. 02005
Author(s):  
J. Lecadet ◽  
R. Forestier ◽  
P. Delaborde
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Subsequent Transformation ◽  
Die Forging ◽  
Near Net Shape ◽  
Structural Parts ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Cost

Assuming the high level of properties and reliability of titanium forgings, strong drivers of research and development for forgings are the pressure on cost, the buy to fly ratio reduction and the life cycle. This presentation discusses the potential of optimizations to address these challenges. The first way to concretely answer the question of the cost and of the life cycle is the recycling of manufacturing scrap and end-of-life products, using the concept of circular economy and implementing a short loop from end user to melters. This is a considerable opportunity to mitigate the risks related to the supply of primary material and to the erratic fluctuations of raw material prices. The second step to optimize both the added value and the material consumption consists in adapting accurately the melting and ingot conversion processes to the actual needs of the application and the subsequent transformation processes. Considering the close die forging step, the use of the concept of Design for forging has also a great potential to optimize the cost and the functions of the forgings. Near Net Shape Forging of titanium, using high temperature close die forging is a great opportunity to make a breakthrough in terms of buy to fly ratio. In addition to all these improvements, the use of high-power hydraulic presses is a key element to take full advantage of them and to manufacture large critical parts with more functions. All together these levers could provide drastic cost reductions, and a considerable reduction in the environmental impact, keeping the advantages of titanium forgings in terms of metallurgical integrity, residual stresses and properties. The implementation of these improvements will require continuous efforts of development from the whole titanium supply chain, and collaboration between integrated titanium forgings suppliers and the OEMs.

A Cost Model for the Metal Inert Gas (MIG) Welding Process

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Kumar Tipaji ◽  
Venkat Allada ◽  
Rajiv Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Material Selection ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Welding Process ◽  
Inert Gas ◽  
Mig Welding ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Cost Component ◽  
Cost Estimation Model ◽  
The Cost

A cost model is an important tool for product design and material selection. An efficient and effective cost estimation tool is necessary for early design evaluations. In this paper, a cost estimation model is presented that estimates the production cost for metal inert gas (MIG) welded joints. This model determines the cost incurred in fabricating each joint with a detailed explanation of each cost component / driver. Each cost component has been closely analyzed and the major cost components have been included in the cost model. We used this cost model to predict the cost of the forty two different joints joined using MIG welding technique. The results predicted by the MIG welding cost model have been compared to that quoted by an expert welder. Initial results show that the cost model and the expert cost estimates follow a similar general trend. Further study is needed to refine the MIG cost model.

A STUDY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COST MODEL BASED ON THE OWNER'S DECISION MAKING AT THE EARLY STAGES OF A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choong-Wan Koo ◽  
TaeHoon Hong ◽  
Chang-Taek Hyun ◽  
Sang H. Park ◽  
Joon-oh Seo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Planning Stage ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Minimum Criteria ◽  
The Cost

Decision making at the early stages of a construction project has a significant impact on the project, and various scenarios created based on the owner's requirements should be considered for the decision making. At the early stages of a construction project, the information regarding the project is usually limited and uncertain. As such, it is difficult to plan and manage the project (especially cost planning). Thus, a cost model that could be varied according to the owner's requirements was developed. The cost model that was developed in this study is based on the case‐based reasoning (CBR) methodology. The model suggests cost estimation with the most similar historical case as a basis for the estimation. In this study, the optimization process was also conducted, using genetic algorithms that reflect the changes in the number of project characteristics and in the database of the model according to the owner's decision making. Two optimization parameters were established: (1) the minimum criteria for scoring attribute similarity (MCAS); and (2) the range of attribute weights (RAW). The cost model proposed in this study can help building owners and managers estimate the project budget at the business planning stage. Santruka Sprendimu priemimas ankstyvuoju statybos projekto etapu turi didele itaka projektui ir ivairiems scenarijams, remiantis savininko reikalavimais, kuriu turi būti laikomasi priimant sprendimus. Ankstyvaisiais statybos projekto etapais informacijos apie projekta paprastai yra nedaug ir ji nera patikima. Del to sudetinga planuoti ir taisyti projekta (ypač išlaidu planavima). Todel šio tyrimo metu buvo sukurtas kainos modelis, kuris galetu būti keičiamas atsižvelgiant i savininko poreikius. Kainos modelis, kuris buvo sukurtas šio tyrimo metu, remiasi atveju analize, pagrista argumentu metodika (angl. CBR). Modelis siūlo samatinius skaičiavimus su panašiausiais ankstesniais atvejais, kurie yra skaičiavimo pagrindas. Šio tyrimo metu procesas buvo optimizuotas naudojant genetinius algoritmus, rodančius projektu skaičiaus kitima tam tikro modelio duomenu bazeje pagal savininko priimamus sprendimus. Buvo nustatyti du optimizavimo parametrai: 1) minimalūs kriterijai veiksniu panašumui ivertinti (angl. MCAS); 2) veiksniu svoriu vertinimo intervalas (angl. RAW). Kainos modelis, pasiūlytas šiame tyrime, gali padeti pastatu savininkams ir valdytojams ivertinti projekto biudžeta verslo planavimo etape.

New Approach in Cost Structuring of High Speed Hard Turning

2011 ◽  
Vol 264-265 ◽  
pp. 1003-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muataz H.F. Al Hazza ◽  
Erry Yulian Triblas Adesta
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Hard Turning ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Cost Drivers ◽  
Optimum Solution ◽  
The Cost

Cost structuring of new technology is a critical mission which needs to be developed systematically to get accurate cost estimation. In this research a new approach was proposed and developed for cost structuring a new process. Cost modeling roadmap was proposed to guide the development of genetic cost model by integrating different cost estimating methods and supporting the optimum solution by using statistical techniques in modeling the cost in high speed hard turning, then by building logical relationships between the different effective variables through three levels of cost drivers; main drivers, process and technical drivers and final drivers. Finally a matlab model was developed for simulating the final cost drivers to study the effect of different parameters on the cost drivers.

scholarly journals Cost Estimation Process of Remote Sensing Satellites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-85
Author(s):  
Dechamma K K ◽  
◽  
Mohith C G ◽  
Suma Mirji ◽  
Rahul Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Knowledge Building ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Technical Knowledge ◽  
Building Relationships ◽  
Technical Parameters ◽  
The Cost

Forecasting cost of satellites is not a recent development in space agencies, they were in practice from the beginning using traditional methods. The attempt to make it simpler, quicker and accurate; established the path to build a model by incorporating statistics, technology and technical knowledge. Building relationships between satellite cost and the technical parameters affecting them directly or indirectly became the basis of the model. The building of the cost model is more vexing than it looks. It requires data to perform regression analysis, which can be linear or nonlinear along with transformations. This paper also specifies the significance of the uncertainty impacting the cost associated with the technical parameters and the method of estimation. The overall model is mapped into three parts; the manpower and facility cost model being the deterministic bottom-up model and the combination of probabilistic and deterministic model for satellite cost.

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