Forecast of domestic air travel demand change by opening the high speed rail

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung Whan Kim ◽  
Hyun Yeal Seo ◽  
Young Kim
Author(s):  
Regina R. L. Clewlow ◽  
Joseph M. Sussman ◽  
Hamsa Balakrishnan

U.S. airports face significant congestion problems, particularly in major metropolitan areas with continued population and economic growth. In addition to growth in air travel demand, frequent short-haul flights on routes of less than 500 mi contribute to airport congestion. The potential for high-speed rail (HSR) to substitute for aviation on these short-haul routes is well documented; however, there is a need to explore how rail can serve in a complementary mode to relieve congestion at airports by providing short-haul services in support of longer-haul airline services. The primary objective of this research project is to examine the role of cooperation between HSR and aviation to improve the aviation system planning process. This study addresses the following key questions: (a) How have airports, airlines, and rail operators cooperated to enable airport–HSR connectivity? (b) What are the service characteristics of airport–HSR connectivity? (c) What are the unique challenges associated with airport–HSR connectivity? (d) How has the demand for air transportation evolved in the presence of airport–HSR connectivity?


Author(s):  
Jungin Kim ◽  
Ikki Kim ◽  
Jaeyeob Shim ◽  
Hansol Yoo ◽  
Sangjun Park

The objectives of this study were to (1) construct an air demand model based on household data and (2) forecast future air demand to explain the relationship between air demand and individual travel behavior. To this end, domestic passenger air travel demand at Jeju Island in South Korea was examined. A multiple regression model with numerous explanatory variables was established by examining categorized household socioeconomic data that affected air demand. The air travel demand model was calibrated for 2009–2015 based on the annual average number of visits to Jeju Island by households in certain income groups. The explanatory variable was set using a dummy variable for each household income group and the proportion of airfare to GDP per capita. Higher household income meant more frequent visits to Jeju Island, which was well-represented in the model. However, the value of the coefficient for the highest income was lower than the value for the second-highest income group. This suggested that the highest income group preferred overseas travel destinations to domestic ones. The future air demand for Jeju airport was predicted as 26,587,407 passengers in 2026, with a subsequent gradual increase to approximately 33,000,000 passengers by 2045 in this study. This study proposed an air travel demand model incorporating household socioeconomic attributes to reflect individual travel behavior, which contrasts with previous studies that used aggregate data. By constructing an air travel model that incorporated socioeconomic factors as a behavioral model, more accurate and consistent projections could be obtained.


2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Haiyan Song

2009 ◽  
pp. 167-178
Author(s):  
Giovanna Campopiano ◽  
Josip Kotlar ◽  
Andrea Salanti

Air travel routes and high speed rail connection between Milan and Rome after the Alitalia crisis This paper analyses the first available data about changes in passenger traffic and air/rail fares after the Alitalia crisis and the substantial reduction of the travel time between Milan and Rome, due to the improvement of high speed rail on this connection. As recently happened in similar cases within Europe, the rail has gained a significant share of traffic previously attracted by air transport services. Apart from that, a real price competition is prevented by a number of inefficiencies which are mainly due to the monopolistic position of the new Alitalia on the route Milan Linate-Rome Fiumicino and problems of accessibility affecting our airports, and partly our rail stations too. The role of the various authorities potentially involved is burdened, in the last instance, by infrastructural deficiencies.


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