Economic trends in 1991/92 Western industrialised countries: the business cycle bottoms out

1991 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Lucie Povolná

The implementation of innovation strategies in SMEs is subjected to changes in the economic cycle. The reliability of economic trend indicators varies according to economic trends. The author deals with the relationship between selected business cycle survey indicators and time periods that correspond to the different phases of the economic cycle between the years 2003–2017. The aim of the article is to find out whether selected business cycle surveys indicators are equally reliable across the economic cycle. To solve the problem, first, the consensus of a selected business cycle surveys indicator and the performance of the mechanical engineering industry were evaluated, and then, the results were put into the context of the time period and tested with nonparametric ANOVA. The results show that the selected indicator was more reliable in periods of growth and less reliable in downturns, which is a signal for SMEs as to how to interpret the business cycle surveys. The use of future development assessments provides important information for businesses that make investment decisions and help them think over funding for innovation.


CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.


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