Prospects for fertility reduction and projections for future population growth in Kenya

1995 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Wortham
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fussell ◽  
Sara R. Curran ◽  
Matthew D. Dunbar ◽  
Michael A. Babb ◽  
Luanne Thompson ◽  
...  

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-423
Author(s):  
Anjali Radkar

Fighting to curb the population growth, India’s reduction in fertility rate (58%) in 35 years is evident; total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 5.2 to 2.2 meaning three children less. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–2016, TFR has dropped to 2.18 from 3.39 in 1992 (NFHS-1). Proximate determinants indicate that over a period, index of marriage and contraception contribute lesser towards fertility, and postpartum amenorrhoea shows marginal variation. When total fecundity remains constant, share of abortion does not remain one but contribute towards fertility reduction. Benefits of fertility decline include lowering population growth and its positive effects on overall development. As fertility declines, maternal mortality declines; maternal mortality ratio (MRR) declined by 67 per cent in past 13 years. Sharp decline in fertility gives rise to demographic dividend. India is passing through it. Fertility drop is not without consequences. Fertility decline makes pregnancies precious; giving rise to upswing to C-section deliveries and hysterectomy even for a minor cause or is it a response to cancer threat? Preference for sons is universal here. With fertility reduction, it surfaces with unruly consequences of missing girls. Drop in fertility has changed the shape of the population pyramid. Share of elderly is reaching 10 per cent, of which share of women and more so share of oldest women is more. In the absence of social security and low rates of workforce participation, women are getting more dependent on the required care, increasing their vulnerability. Fertility reduction has achieved with moderate level of development. Now the right response to effects of fertility decline is the biggest social challenge.


Author(s):  
Gunnar Almgren ◽  
Ji Young Kang

This entry provides a brief overview of the field of social demography, the components of population change, projections for future population growth, and recent transformations in population composition pertaining to age, race, and ethnicity. Trends that shape family household structure (for example, marriage, divorce, cohabitation, and nonmarital child bearing) are also considered, as are trends pertaining to the distribution of income, wealth, and poverty. Population trends given particular attention include the growth of class-based disparities in marriage and nonmarital child bearing, the contributions of immigration to population growth and diversity, and a disturbing increase over recent decades in the prevalence of poverty among children of immigrants.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document