Political change and stability of the popularity function: The French general election of 1981

1984 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Dominique Lafay
Keyword(s):  
Political Change ◽  
General Election ◽  
Popularity Function

Political change and party choice: Voting in the 1997 general election

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart ◽  
Paul Whiteley
Keyword(s):  
Political Change ◽  
General Election ◽  
Party Choice

Popularity Function Forecasts for the 2005 UK General Election

2005 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
General Election ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Monthly Time Series ◽  
Popularity Function

The article provides a set of contingent forecasts for the forthcoming UK general election. The forecasts are based on popularity function derived from monthly time series data covering the period 1997–2004. On most likely assumptions, the forecasts produce a clear Labour victory in the early summer of 2005, with the Liberal Democrats increasing their vote share by roughly four percentage points.

The 1996 General Election in New Zealand: Proportional Representation and Political Change

1997 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Boston ◽  
Stephen Levine ◽  
Elizabeth McLeay ◽  
Nigel S. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
General Election

THE 1895 GENERAL ELECTION AND POLITICAL CHANGE IN LATE VICTORIAN BRITAIN

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL A. READMAN
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Victorian Britain ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The 1960S

Since the 1960s, the politics of the period 1860 to 1906 have received much attention, particularly by historians of the Conservative party. On the whole, it has been argued that Conservative electoral success during this period was a ‘negative’ achievement. Through an examination of the election of 1895 this article questions this argument. It suggests that both the nature of the Unionists' appeal and the factors behind their performance in general elections in this period have to an extent been oversimplified since the pioneering quantitative work of James Cornford. A content analysis of Liberal and Unionist candidates' election addresses is presented in order to make sense of the issues of the campaign, full details of which can be found in the appendix to this article. The Liberal message is shown to be more coherent, and that of the Unionists more positive, than is usually assumed. Cornford's methodology is also challenged, and an alternative (and simpler) approach is suggested. It is argued that in 1895 there was in general no inverse correlation between Conservative vote and turnout, or between Conservative vote and changes to the electoral registers. And although party organization was very important to the Unionists' success there seems little evidence of any over-arching plan to keep both turnout and the number of registered electors down.

Malaysia in 2011

Asian Survey ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O'Shannassy
Keyword(s):  
Political Change ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
General Election ◽  
Middle Ground ◽  
Slow Pace

Abstract Ethno-religious controversies, noisy demands for political change, and growing concerns over the slow pace of crucial economic reforms all served to highlight Malaysia's constantly shifting sociopolitical terrain in 2011. With the prospect of an early general election, it remains to be seen whether the ruling coalition can regain the middle ground.

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