Stochastic Complexity for Mixture of Exponential Families in Variational Bayes

2005 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuho Watanabe ◽  
Sumio Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Variational Bayes ◽  
Exponential Families ◽  
Stochastic Complexity

scholarly journals On the Notion of Reproducibility and Its Full Implementation to Natural Exponential Families

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 1568
Author(s):  
Shaul K. Bar-Lev
Keyword(s):  
Power Function ◽  
Exponential Family ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Infinite Divisibility ◽  
Variance Function ◽  
Exponential Families ◽  
Natural Exponential Family ◽  
Natural Exponential Families ◽  
Convolution Properties ◽  
The Relationship

Let F=Fθ:θ∈Θ⊂R be a family of probability distributions indexed by a parameter θ and let X1,⋯,Xn be i.i.d. r.v.’s with L(X1)=Fθ∈F. Then, F is said to be reproducible if for all θ∈Θ and n∈N, there exists a sequence (αn)n≥1 and a mapping gn:Θ→Θ,θ⟼gn(θ) such that L(αn∑i=1nXi)=Fgn(θ)∈F. In this paper, we prove that a natural exponential family F is reproducible iff it possesses a variance function which is a power function of its mean. Such a result generalizes that of Bar-Lev and Enis (1986, The Annals of Statistics) who proved a similar but partial statement under the assumption that F is steep as and under rather restricted constraints on the forms of αn and gn(θ). We show that such restrictions are not required. In addition, we examine various aspects of reproducibility, both theoretically and practically, and discuss the relationship between reproducibility, convolution and infinite divisibility. We suggest new avenues for characterizing other classes of families of distributions with respect to their reproducibility and convolution properties .

scholarly journals KR20 and KR21 for Some Nondichotomous Data (It’s Not Just Cronbach’s Alpha)

2021 ◽  
pp. 001316442199253
Author(s):  
Robert C. Foster
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Family ◽  
Exponential Families ◽  
Natural Exponential Family ◽  
Cronbach’S Alpha ◽  
Natural Exponential Families ◽  
Cronbach's Alpha ◽  
Generalized Framework ◽  
The Common ◽  
Poisson Data ◽  
Poisson Count

This article presents some equivalent forms of the common Kuder–Richardson Formula 21 and 20 estimators for nondichotomous data belonging to certain other exponential families, such as Poisson count data, exponential data, or geometric counts of trials until failure. Using the generalized framework of Foster (2020), an equation for the reliability for a subset of the natural exponential family have quadratic variance function is derived for known population parameters, and both formulas are shown to be different plug-in estimators of this quantity. The equivalent Kuder–Richardson Formulas 20 and 21 are given for six different natural exponential families, and these match earlier derivations in the case of binomial and Poisson data. Simulations show performance exceeding that of Cronbach’s alpha in terms of root mean square error when the formula matching the correct exponential family is used, and a discussion of Jensen’s inequality suggests explanations for peculiarities of the bias and standard error of the simulations across the different exponential families.

scholarly journals Estimating Simultaneous Equation Models through an Entropy-Based Incremental Variational Bayes Learning Algorithm

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Rocío Hernández-Sanjaime ◽  
Martín González ◽  
Antonio Peñalver ◽  
Jose J. López-Espín
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Theory ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Variational Bayes ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Step Method ◽  
The One ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Models

The presence of unaccounted heterogeneity in simultaneous equation models (SEMs) is frequently problematic in many real-life applications. Under the usual assumption of homogeneity, the model can be seriously misspecified, and it can potentially induce an important bias in the parameter estimates. This paper focuses on SEMs in which data are heterogeneous and tend to form clustering structures in the endogenous-variable dataset. Because the identification of different clusters is not straightforward, a two-step strategy that first forms groups among the endogenous observations and then uses the standard simultaneous equation scheme is provided. Methodologically, the proposed approach is based on a variational Bayes learning algorithm and does not need to be executed for varying numbers of groups in order to identify the one that adequately fits the data. We describe the statistical theory, evaluate the performance of the suggested algorithm by using simulated data, and apply the two-step method to a macroeconomic problem.

‘Exponential mixtures and quadratic exponential families’

Biometrika ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-248
Author(s):  
PETER MCCULLAGH
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Families

scholarly journals EXPRESS: Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224372110329
Author(s):  
Nicolas Padilla ◽  
Eva Ascarza
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cold Start ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Exponential Families ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Probabilistic Machine Learning ◽  
Marketing Actions ◽  
Cold Start Problem

The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to identify and leverage differences across customers — a very diffcult task when firms attempt to manage new customers, for whom only the first purchase has been observed. For those customers, the lack of repeated observations poses a structural challenge to inferring unobserved differences across them. This is what we call the “cold start” problem of CRM, whereby companies have difficulties leveraging existing data when they attempt to make inferences about customers at the beginning of their relationship. We propose a solution to the cold start problem by developing a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework that leverages the information collected at the moment of acquisition. The main aspect of the model is that it exibly captures latent dimensions that govern the behaviors observed at acquisition as well as future propensities to buy and to respond to marketing actions using deep exponential families. The model can be integrated with a variety of demand specifications and is exible enough to capture a wide range of heterogeneity structures. We validate our approach in a retail context and empirically demonstrate the model's ability at identifying high-value customers as well as those most sensitive to marketing actions, right after their first purchase.

A characterization of certain discrete exponential families

1996 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. T. Nguyen ◽  
A. K. Gupta ◽  
Y. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Families
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