scholarly journals Understanding effect site pharmacology of uprifosbuvir, a HCV nucleoside inhibitor: case study of a multidisciplinary modelling approach in drug development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul van den Berg ◽  
Wei Gao ◽  
Maurice J. Ahsman ◽  
Leticia Arrington ◽  
Filippos Kesisoglou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Development ◽  
Effect Site ◽  
Modelling Approach

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

scholarly journals Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-299
Author(s):  
Christoph Welker ◽  
Thomas Röösli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Information Service ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: an insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar–Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessment of rare events, such as a 250-year-return-period windstorm causing CHF 75 million in damages, including an evaluation of the uncertainties. Our study emphasizes the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open-source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

scholarly journals Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Leedal ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
P. J. Smith ◽  
K. J. Beven
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Open Shell ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Mechanistic Modelling ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

Evolution of Digital Technologies and Use of Virtual Assistants in Drug Development

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Manu Venugopal
Keyword(s):  
Drug Development ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Life Sciences ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Development Phase ◽  
Health Technologies ◽  
Daunting Task ◽  
The World

The drug development phase is one of the most time-consuming and expensive stages in the lifecycle of a drug. Marred by patent expirations, price regulations, complexities in disease conditions, life sciences companies are facing a daunting task to bring new molecular entities into the market. Digital health technologies are playing a critical role in addressing some of the challenges faced during drug development. In this chapter, the author talks about the challenges and key trends in the world of drug development, use of new digital health technologies, and the future of drug development. As an example, the author dives into a specific case study on the use of virtual assistants in clinical trials and the benefits of its usage on patients, healthcare professionals, and life sciences companies.

Enterprise Modelling in Support of Organisation Design and Change

2010 ◽  
pp. 352-378
Author(s):  
Joseph Ajaefobi ◽  
Aysin Rahimifard ◽  
Richard Weston
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Market Place ◽  
Manufacturing Enterprises ◽  
Enterprise Modelling ◽  
Requirements Change ◽  
Study Application ◽  
Modelling Approach

Enterprises (business organisations) are increasingly operating under uncertain conditions arising from: governments that introduce new regulations; a market place which is shaped by ongoing change in customer requirements; change in capital markets that orient overall market directions; an advancing base of technology; and increasing competition which can arise from a growing number of sources (Monfared, 2000). Consequently, organisations are expected to change rapidly in response to emerging requirements. Classical theories and more recently ‘method-based’ organisation (re)design and change approaches have been proposed and tried with varying degrees of successes. This chapter contribution discusses the role of enterprise and simulation modelling in support of organisation (re)design and change. The capabilities and constraints of some widely acknowledged public domain enterprise modelling frameworks and methods are reviewed. A modelling approach which integrates the use of enterprise modelling (EM), causal loop modelling (CLM), and simulation modelling (SM) is described. The approach enables the generation of coherent and semantically rich models of organisations. The integrated modelling approach has been applied and tested in a number of manufacturing enterprises (MEs) and one case study application is described.

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