scholarly journals Modelling the potential distribution ofBemisia tabaciin Europe in light of the climate change scenario

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (10) ◽  
pp. 1611-1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianni Gilioli ◽  
Sara Pasquali ◽  
Simone Parisi ◽  
Stephan Winter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario

scholarly journals Predicting potential distribution of Thelypteris dentata and the changes based on climate change scenario.

2008 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro HORIKAWA ◽  
Kentaro MURAKAMI ◽  
Ikutaro TSUYAMA ◽  
Takashi OYABU ◽  
Tetsuya MATSUI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario

scholarly journals The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Antúnez ◽  
Mario Suárez-Mota ◽  
César Valenzuela-Encinas ◽  
Faustino Ruiz-Aquino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Change Impact

Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for assessment of impact of climatic change, impact of human activity and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Née) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future.

scholarly journals Modelando a Ceratitis Capitata (Diptera: Thepritidae) para Ecuador.

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Magali García Rosero ◽  
Hugo Soplín ◽  
Julio Alegre ◽  
Alexander Rodríguez ◽  
Manuel Cantos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Ceratitis Capitata ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Physiological Parameters ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Ecoclimatic Index

Se determinó la distribución potencial de C. capitata bajo condiciones del clima actual y un escenario de cambio climático (A1B-2030) para el Ecuador, empleando el modelo CLIMEX versión 3. El modelo usó parámetros fisiológicos de C. capitata y datos meteorológicos globales para construir un Índice Ecoclimático (IE), el cual describió zonas muy favorables (IE>30), zonas menos favorables (IE<30) y zonas nulas (IE=0) para la distribución de C. capitata durante todo el año. Se estimó que el porcentaje de áreas muy favorables (IE>30) de C. capitata es 47.73% en condiciones actuales de clima y 33.3% en el escenario A1B-2030. Adicionalmente, se estimó que el porcentaje de áreas menos favorables (IE<30) es 47.61% en condiciones actuales de clima y 62.17% en el escenario A1B-2030. Las áreas de probabilidad nula para establecimiento de C. capitata es 4.65% para condiciones actuales de clima y 4.80% para el escenario A1B-2030.AbstractThis study determined the potential distribution of C. capitata under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario (A1B-2030) for the Ecuador using the CLIMEX model version 3. The model used physiological parameters of C. capitata and global meteorological data, to build an Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which described the very favorable areas (EI > 30), less favorable areas (EI < 30) and less favorable areas (EI = 0) for the distribution of C. capitata throughout the year. It was estimated that the percentage of very favorable areas (EI > 30) of C. capitata is 47.73% in current climate conditions and 33.3% in the scenario (A1B-2030). In addition, it was estimated that the percentage of less favorable areas (EI < 30) is 47.61% in current climate conditions and 62.17% in the scenario (A1B-2030). The areas with zero probability for establishment of C. capitata is 4.65% for current climate conditions and 4.80% for the scenario (A1B-2030). 

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

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