Problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting, D. M. Burridge E. Kallén (eds), Springer-Verlag, 1984. No. of pages: 274. Price $17-50

1985 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-111
Author(s):  
G. J. Shutts
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Medium Range

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

scholarly journals Improvements in medium range weather forecasting system of India

2014 ◽  
Vol 123 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
V S PRASAD ◽  
SAJI MOHANDAS ◽  
SURYA KANTI DUTTA ◽  
M DAS GUPTA ◽  
G R IYENGAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System

A Eulerian Explosive Cyclogenesis climatology from the ERA5 reanalysis, 1979-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Cropper ◽  
Stephanie Allen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Avalon Peninsula ◽  
Resolution Data ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

<p>Using the criterion of one Bergeron (24 hPa change over 24 h at 60°), we present the creation of a Eulerian explosive cyclogenesis climatology using hourly-temporal resolution data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2018). This approach differs to the typically used Lagrangian methodologies adopted by many studies. The climatology created by this approach results in similar patterns to previous studies.</p><p>Assessments on the dataset are undertaken to analyse the influence of seasonality, teleconnections, climate change and individual events (the method picks up tropical cyclones as well as mid-latitude storms). The location experiencing the most consistent explosive cyclongenesis conditions (15% of the time during the Northern Hemisphere winter) is to the east of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. The preferred location of explosive cyclogenesis is shown to change in relation to patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Potential applications of the dataset are suggested.</p><p>                                                </p>

scholarly journals Diurnal Variation in Precipitation over India during the Summer Monsoon Season: Observed and Model Predicted

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2155-2167 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. K. Basu
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Variation ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Summer Monsoon Season ◽  
Global Spectral Model ◽  
Sea Breezes ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Variance Explained

Abstract Satellite-derived hourly precipitation values over India and neighboring areas are examined during the summer monsoon season of 2004 to determine the observed patterns of diurnal variations. These are compared with the patterns found in the forecasts from the global spectral model in operation at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in India. The observed hourly precipitation shows that maximum amounts are recorded over most areas of India during the afternoon hours, coinciding with the maximum in surface temperature. This pattern is modified in areas where local mesoscale events like katabatic winds or land–sea breezes produce strong convergence patterns and associated convection. The model forecasts weaken the mesoscale effects on precipitation and the convection due to ground heating seems to start in the model 2–3 h before the time it is observed by the satellites. The frequency and amount of precipitation increases with the forecast length but the hour of maximum precipitation remains almost the same. Harmonic analysis of the frequency of observed precipitation shows that the diurnal cycle predominates in both magnitude and the amount of variance explained. The semidiurnal cycle is considerably smaller in magnitude and explains significant variance only over a small area. Other cycles of smaller periodicity are unimportant in the diurnal variation of precipitation. A similar result is also obtained for the model forecasts except that the spatial distributions of amplitude and variance explained are different from that obtained from the observed data. The spatial distribution and values remain almost the same with forecast length.

Impact of Coupling with an Ice–Ocean Model on Global Medium-Range NWP Forecast Skill

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory C. Smith ◽  
Jean-Marc Bélanger ◽  
François Roy ◽  
Pierre Pellerin ◽  
Hal Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact

The importance of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean for forecasting on time scales of hours to weeks has been demonstrated for a range of physical processes. Here, the authors evaluate the impact of an interactive air–sea coupling between an operational global deterministic medium-range weather forecasting system and an ice–ocean forecasting system. This system was developed in the context of an experimental forecasting system that is now running operationally at the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction. The authors show that the most significant impact is found to be associated with a decreased cyclone intensification, with a reduction in the tropical cyclone false alarm ratio. This results in a 15% decrease in standard deviation errors in geopotential height fields for 120-h forecasts in areas of active cyclone development, with commensurate benefits for wind, temperature, and humidity fields. Whereas impacts on surface fields are found locally in the vicinity of cyclone activity, large-scale improvements in the mid-to-upper troposphere are found with positive global implications for forecast skill. Moreover, coupling is found to produce fairly constant reductions in standard deviation error growth for forecast days 1–7 of about 5% over the northern extratropics in July and August and 15% over the tropics in January and February. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a statistically significant positive impact of coupling has been shown in an operational global medium-range deterministic numerical weather prediction framework.

scholarly journals Sval_Imp: a gridded forcing dataset for climate change impact research on Svalbard

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 875-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Vikhamar Schuler ◽  
Torbjørn Ims Østby
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Multidimensional Interpolation ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. We present Sval_Imp, a high-resolution gridded dataset designed for forcing models of terrestrial surface processes on Svalbard. The dataset is defined on a 1 km grid covering the archipelago of Svalbard, located in the Norwegian Arctic (74–82∘ N). Using a hybrid methodology, combining multidimensional interpolation with simple dynamical modeling, the atmospheric reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting have been downscaled to cover the period 1957–2017 at steps of 6 h. The dataset is publicly available from a data repository. In this paper, we describe the methodology used to construct the dataset, present the organization of the data in the repository and discuss the performance of the downscaling procedure. In doing so, the dataset is compared to a wealth of data available from operational and project-based measurements. The quality of the downscaled dataset is found to vary in space and time, but it generally represents an improvement compared to unscaled values, especially for precipitation. Whereas operational records are biased to low elevations around the fringes, we stress the hitherto underused potential of project-based measurements at higher elevation and in the interior of the archipelago for evaluating atmospheric models. For instance, records of snow accumulation on large ice masses may represent measures of seasonally integrated precipitation in regions sensitive to the downscaling procedure and thus providing added value. Sval_Imp (Schuler, 2018) is publicly available from the Norwegian Research Data Archive NIRD, a data repository (https://doi.org/10.11582/2018.00006).

scholarly journals Dynamic downscaling of the ERA-40 data using a mesoscale meteorological model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. PAPADOPOULOS ◽  
G. KORRES ◽  
P. KATSAFADOS ◽  
D. BALLAS ◽  
L. PERIVOLIOTIS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Forecasting System

A sophisticated downscaling procedure that was applied to reproduce high resolution historical records of the atmospheric conditions across the Mediterranean region is presented in this paper. This was accomplished by the dynamical downscaling of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts ERA-40 reanalyses with the aid of the atmospheric model of the POSEIDON weather forecasting system. The full three dimensional atmospheric fields with 6 hours of temporal resolution and the surface meteorological parameters at hourly intervals were produced for a 10-year period (1995-2004). The meteorological variables are readily available at 10 km resolution and may constitute the atmospheric forcing to drive wave, ocean hydrodynamic and hydrological models, as well as the baseline data for environmental impact assessment studies. A brief overview of the procedure and a quantitative estimation of the benefit of the new dynamical downscaling dataset are presented.

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