Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Indonesian rainfall variability in austral summer

2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 1816-1825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmat Hidayat ◽  
Shoichi Kizu
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Indonesian Rainfall

scholarly journals Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and ENSO, and Consequences for Rainfall Analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Pohl ◽  
N. Fauchereau ◽  
C. J. C. Reason ◽  
M. Rouault
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Antarctic Oscillation ◽  
Interannual Time Scale ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes (south of 20°S). In this paper, the authors examine its statistical relationships with the major tropical climate signals at the intraseasonal and interannual time scales and their consequences on its potential influence on rainfall variability at regional scales. At the intraseasonal time scale, although the AAO shows its most energetic fluctuations in the 30–60-day range, it is not unambiguously related to the global-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, with in particular no coherent phase relationship with the MJO index. Moreover, in the high southern latitudes, the MJO-associated anomaly fields do not appear to project coherently on the well-known AAO patterns and are never of an annular nature. At the interannual time scale, a strong teleconnection with ENSO is found during the peak of the austral summer season, corroborating previous studies. El Niño (La Niña) tends to correspond to a negative (positive) AAO phase. The results are statistically significant only when the seasonal mean fields averaged for the November through February season are considered. Based on these results, the authors then isolate the specific influence of the AAO on rainfall variability at both intraseasonal and interannual time scales. The example taken here is southern Africa, a region under the influence of both the MJO and ENSO, experiencing its main rainy season in austral summer and containing a relatively dense network of rain gauge measurements. At the interannual time scale, the significance of the teleconnections between southern African rainfall and the AAO reveals itself to be a statistical artifact and becomes very weak once the influence of ENSO is removed. At the intraseasonal time scale, the AAO is seen to significantly affect the rainfall amounts over much of the country, without interference with other modes of variability. Its influence in modulating the rain appears to be strongest during La Niña years.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variability of Southeastern South America Rainfall and Moisture Sources during the Austral Summertime

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6751-6763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Martín-Gómez ◽  
Emilio Hernández-Garcia ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Cristóbal López
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Eastern Shore ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Eastern Brazil ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical oceans are able to generate extratropical atmospheric circulation anomalies that can induce rainfall variability and changes in the sources of moisture. The work reported here evaluates the interdecadal changes in the moisture sources for southeastern South America (SESA) during austral summer, and it is divided into two complementary parts. In the first part the authors construct a climate network to detect synchronization periods among the tropical oceans and the precipitation over SESA. Afterward, taking into account these results, the authors select two periods with different degrees of synchronization to compare the spatial distribution of the SESA moisture sources. Results show that during the last century there were three synchronization periods among the tropical oceans and the precipitation over SESA (during the 1930s, 1970s, and 1990s) and suggest that the main moisture sources of SESA are the recycling over the region, the central-eastern shore of Brazil together with the surrounding Atlantic Ocean, and the southwestern South Atlantic surrounding the SESA domain. Comparison of SESA moisture sources for the 1980s (a period of nonsignificant synchronization) and the 1990s (a synchronized period) shows that the principal differences are in the intensity of the recycling and in the strength of the central-eastern shore of Brazil. Moreover, the authors find that a region centered at (20°S, 300°E) is a moisture source for SESA only during the 1990s. These differences can be associated with the development of a low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly circulation over central-eastern Brazil that favors the transport of moisture from central Brazil (central-eastern shore of Brazil) toward SESA in the 1990s (1980s).

scholarly journals Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Austral Summer

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 1105-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eriko Nishimoto ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Convective Region ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its statistical significance are examined for austral summer (DJF) in neutral ENSO events during 1979–2013. The amplitude of the OLR-based MJO index (OMI) is typically larger in the easterly phase of the QBO at 50 hPa (E-QBO phase) than in the westerly (W-QBO) phase. Daily composite analyses are performed by focusing on phase 4 of the OMI, when the active convective system is located over the eastern Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent. The composite OLR anomaly shows a larger negative value and slower eastward propagation with a prolonged period of active convection in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase. Statistically significant differences of the MJO activities between the QBO phases also exist with dynamical consistency in the divergence of horizontal wind, the vertical wind, the moisture, the precipitation, and the 100-hPa temperature. A conditional sampling analysis is also performed by focusing on the most active convective region for each day, irrespective of the MJO amplitude and phase. Composite vertical profiles of the conditionally sampled data over the most active convective region reveal lower temperature and static stability around the tropopause in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase, which indicates more favorable conditions for developing deep convection. This feature is more prominent and extends into lower levels in the upper troposphere over the most active convective region than other tropical regions. Composite longitude–height sections show similar features of the large-scale convective system associated with the MJO, including a vertically propagating Kelvin response.

scholarly journals Madden–Julian oscillation influence on sub-seasonal rainfall variability on the west of South America

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 2167-2185 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel ◽  
Benjamin Zaitchik ◽  
William K. Pan
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
The West

Cloud regimes and associated MJO variability over the Maritime Continent in austral summer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zijie Zhao ◽  
Claire Vincent ◽  
Todd Lane
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Scale Modelling ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
High Level ◽  
Cloud Patterns ◽  
Cloud Regimes

<p>In this study, a new technique to determine distinct cloud regimes and their variation in space and time is proposed, evaluated, and applied to two satellite products over the Maritime Continent (MC). Compared to previous methods, the method presented here allows different types of cloud to co-exist in the same grid at the same time, giving rise to physically explainable and spatially continuous patterns in cloud regimes. Similar results generated by ISCCP – H and Himawari 8 data suggests that the method is robust. The 4 cloud regimes determined using this method are associated with shallow, mid-level, deep convective and high level clouds respectively. The analysis shows that he MJO–induced variation in total cloud fraction is dominated by day-time high–level clouds, while the diurnal MJO variability is mostly demonstrated by low–level cumulus. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability over the MC during austral summer is dominated by high–level clouds, while most local signatures and land–sea differences are attributed to deep convective clouds. Using an artificial neural network, the cloud patterns over the MC can be classified into nine categories, largely dominated by the MJO-phase. Active MJO activity is shown by systematic propagation around the cloud categories, with one category associated with the inactive MJO phase. The inhomogenous propagation of the MJO can partially be revealed in the generated patterns, which can be physically explained by the enhanced/suppressed convection over the Indian Ocean. This work has implications for understanding the MJO-scale variation in precipitation and diabatic heating associated with different cloud regimes, and its representation in mesoscale and climate scale modelling systems.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonality and Regionality of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, Kelvin Wave, and Equatorial Rossby Wave

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 4400-4416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirohiko Masunaga
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Solution ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin wave, and equatorial Rossby (ER) wave—collectively called intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs)—are investigated using a 25-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements as well as the associated dynamical fields. The ISO modes are detected by applying bandpass filters to the OLR data in the frequency–wavenumber space. An automated wave-tracking algorithm is applied to each ISO mode so that convection centers accompanied with the ISOs are traced in space and time in an objective fashion. The identified paths of the individual ISO modes are first examined and found strongly modulated regionally and seasonally. The dynamical structure is composited with respect to the convection centers of each ISO mode. A baroclinic mode of the combined Rossby and Kelvin structure is prominent for the MJO, consistent with existing work. The Kelvin wave exhibits a low-level wind field resembling the shallow-water solution, while a slight lead of low-level convergence over convection suggests the impact of frictional boundary layer convergence on Kelvin wave dynamics. A lagged composite analysis reveals that the MJO is accompanied with a Kelvin wave approaching from the west preceding the MJO convective maximum in austral summer. MJO activity then peaks as the Kelvin and ER waves constructively interfere to enhance off-equatorial boundary layer convergence. The MJO leaves a Kelvin wave emanating to the east once the peak phase is passed. The approaching Kelvin wave prior to the development of MJO convection is absent in boreal summer and fall. The composite ER wave, loosely concentrated around the MJO, is nearly stationary throughout. A possible scenario to physically translate the observed result is also discussed.

The Influence on Summer Rainfall in the Lesotho Lowlands from Indian Ocean SSTs

2002 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Hydén
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Ocean Area ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Lesotho is located approximately at latitude 30 degrees south in the interior of Southern Africa. The mesoscale climate is complicated and governed by various weather systems. The inter-annual rainfall variability is great, resulting in low food security, since the growing of crops in the Lesotho Lowlands is almost exclusively rain-fed. Reliable forecasts of austral summer rainfall are thus valuable. Earlier research has shown that the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean to some extent govern rainfall in Southern Africa. The research presented is part of an on-going project to find suitable oceanographic and meteorological predictors, which can be used in a forecast model for summer rainfall, to be developed later. The first part of this paper investigates the correlation between the average SSTs in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, the Central Indian Ocean, and the Agulhas Gyre, respectively, and rainfall two months later in the Lesotho Lowlands during early austral summer, October until December for the period 1949-1995. No significant correlations have been found, probably because the three ocean areas are too large. In the second part of this paper the monthly SST in 132 grid squares in the Indian Ocean were investigated and found to be correlated with rainfall in the Lesotho Lowlands two months later, October until March. Significant correlations have been found between the SSTs and certain ocean areas and December, January, and February rainfall, respectively. There is significant negative correlation between December rainfall and October SST in an ocean area between Kenya and Somalia across the Indian Ocean to Sumatra. In the area where the Somali Current flows there is also significant correlation between December SST and December rainfall. January rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with November SST in an ocean area, northeast of Madagascar. February rainfall is significantly, but weakly, negatively correlated with SST in a narrow north-south corridor in the Eastern Indian Ocean from the equator down to latitude 40 degrees south.

Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Australian Rainfall and Circulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1482-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Sam Cleland ◽  
Holger Meinke ◽  
Alexis Donald
Keyword(s):  
Austral Summer ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Australian Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Impact

Abstract Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian rainfall and circulation are examined during all four seasons. The authors examine circulation anomalies and a number of different rainfall metrics, each composited contemporaneously for eight MJO phases derived from the real-time multivariate MJO index. Multiple rainfall metrics are examined to allow for greater relevance of the information for applications. The greatest rainfall impact of the MJO occurs in northern Australia in (austral) summer, although in every season rainfall impacts of various magnitude are found in most locations, associated with corresponding circulation anomalies. In northern Australia in all seasons except winter, the rainfall impact is explained by the direct influence of the MJO’s tropical convective anomalies, while in winter a weaker and more localized signal in northern Australia appears to result from the modulation of the trade winds as they impinge upon the eastern coasts, especially in the northeast. In extratropical Australia, on the other hand, the occurrence of enhanced (suppressed) rainfall appears to result from induced upward (downward) motion within remotely forced extratropical lows (highs), and from anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) winds that transport moisture from the tropics. Induction of extratropical rainfall anomalies by remotely forced lows and highs appears to operate mostly in winter, whereas anomalous meridional moisture transport appears to operate mainly in the summer, autumn, and to some extent in the spring.

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