Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Australian Rainfall and Circulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1482-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Sam Cleland ◽  
Holger Meinke ◽  
Alexis Donald
Keyword(s):  
Austral Summer ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Australian Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Impact

Abstract Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian rainfall and circulation are examined during all four seasons. The authors examine circulation anomalies and a number of different rainfall metrics, each composited contemporaneously for eight MJO phases derived from the real-time multivariate MJO index. Multiple rainfall metrics are examined to allow for greater relevance of the information for applications. The greatest rainfall impact of the MJO occurs in northern Australia in (austral) summer, although in every season rainfall impacts of various magnitude are found in most locations, associated with corresponding circulation anomalies. In northern Australia in all seasons except winter, the rainfall impact is explained by the direct influence of the MJO’s tropical convective anomalies, while in winter a weaker and more localized signal in northern Australia appears to result from the modulation of the trade winds as they impinge upon the eastern coasts, especially in the northeast. In extratropical Australia, on the other hand, the occurrence of enhanced (suppressed) rainfall appears to result from induced upward (downward) motion within remotely forced extratropical lows (highs), and from anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) winds that transport moisture from the tropics. Induction of extratropical rainfall anomalies by remotely forced lows and highs appears to operate mostly in winter, whereas anomalous meridional moisture transport appears to operate mainly in the summer, autumn, and to some extent in the spring.

scholarly journals Extratropical Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over New Zealand from a Weather Regime Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 2161-2175 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Fauchereau ◽  
B. Pohl ◽  
A. Lorrey
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Orographic Effects ◽  
Regional Circulation ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics during the austral summer (November–March) is investigated over the New Zealand (NZ) sector, using the paradigm of atmospheric weather regimes (WRs), following a classification initially established by Kidson. The MJO is first demonstrated to have significant impacts on daily rainfall anomalies in NZ. It is suggested that orographic effects arising from the interaction between regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and NZ’s topography can explain the spatially heterogeneous precipitation anomalies that are related to MJO activity. These local impacts and circulation anomalies are shown to be better understood as resulting from changes in the occupation statistics of regional WRs (the Kidson types) through the MJO life cycle, although both constructive and destructive effects are demonstrated. The hypothesis of a significant forcing of the MJO over the NZ sector is further supported by lagged composite analyses, which reveal timing characteristics of the delayed regional circulation response compatible with the average propagation speed of the MJO. While the southern annular mode (SAM) has been previously shown to be statistically related to the MJO and is known to be a significant driver of NZ’s climate, no evidence is found that the impact of the MJO over the NZ sector is mediated by the SAM. It is therefore suggested that the MJO directly impacts regional circulation and climate in the NZ region, potentially through extratropical Rossby wave response to tropical diabatic heating. These findings suggest a new potential for predictability for some aspects of NZ’s weather and climate deriving from the MJO beyond the meteorological time scales.

scholarly journals Global carbonyl sulfide (OCS) measured by MIPAS/Envisat during 2002–2012

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Glatthor ◽  
Michael Höpfner ◽  
Adrian Leyser ◽  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Emission Spectra ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We present a global OCS data set covering the period June 2002 to April 2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite. The vertical resolution is 4–5 km in the height region 6–15 km and 15 km at 40 km altitude. The total estimated error amounts to 40–50 pptv between 10 and 20 km and to 120 pptv at 40 km altitude. MIPAS OCS data show no systematic bias with respect to balloon observations, with deviations mostly below ±50 pptv. However, they are systematically higher than the OCS volume mixing ratios of the ACE-FTS instrument on SCISAT, with maximum deviations of up to 100 pptv in the altitude region 13–16 km. The data set of MIPAS OCS exhibits only moderate interannual variations and low interhemispheric differences. Average concentrations at 10 km altitude range from 480 pptv at high latitudes to 500–510 pptv in the tropics and at northern mid-latitudes. Seasonal variations at 10 km altitude amount up to 35 pptv in the northern and up to 15 pptv in the southern hemisphere. Northern hemispheric OCS abundances at 10 km altitude peak in June in the tropics and around October at high latitudes, while the respective southern hemispheric maxima were observed in July and in November. Global OCS distributions at 250 hPa (~ 10–11 km) show enhanced values at low latitudes, peaking during boreal summer above the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, which indicates oceanic release. Further, a region of depleted OCS amounts extending from Brazil to central and southern Africa was detected at this altitude, which is most pronounced in austral summer. This depletion is related to seasonally varying vegetative uptake by the tropical forests. Typical signatures of biomass burning like the southern hemispheric biomass burning plume are not visible in MIPAS data, indicating that this process is only a minor source of tropospheric OCS. At the 150 hPa level (~ 13–14 km) enhanced amounts of OCS were also observed inside the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone, but this enhancement is not especially outstanding as compared to other low latitude regions at the same altitude. At the 80 hPa level (~ 17–18 km) equatorward transport of mid-latitude air masses containing lower OCS amounts around the summertime anticyclones was observed. A significant trend could not be detected in tropospheric MIPAS OCS amounts, which points to globally balanced sources and sinks.

scholarly journals Analysis of a rapid increase of stratospheric ozone during late austral summer 2008 over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E)

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 363-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bencherif ◽  
L. El Amraoui ◽  
G. Kirgis ◽  
J. Leclair De Bellevue ◽  
A. Hauchecorne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Global Mapping ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. This paper reports on an increase of ozone event observed over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E) in relationship with large-scale isentropic transport. This is evidenced by ground-based observations (co-localised radiosonde and SAOZ experiments) together with satellite global observations (Aura/MLS) assimilated into MOCAGE, a Méteo-France model. The study is based on the analyses of the first ozonesonde experiment never recorded at the Kerguelen site within the framework of a French campaign called ROCK that took place from April to August 2008. Comparisons and interpretations of the observed event are supported by co-localised SAOZ observations, by global mapping of tracers (O3, N2O and columns of O3) from Aura/MLS and Aura/OMI experiments, and by model simulations of Ertel Potential Vorticity initialised by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data reanalyses. Satellite and ground-based observational data revealed a consistent increase of ozone in the local stratosphere by mid-April 2008. Additionally, Ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) profiles obtained during January–May 2008 using the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite are assimilated into MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle), a global three-dimensional chemistry transport model of Météo-France. The assimilated total O3 values are consistent with SAOZ ground observations (within ±5%), and isentropic distributions of O3 match well with maps of advected potential vorticity (APV) derived from the MIMOSA model, a high-resolution advection transport model, and from the ECMWF reanalysis. The event studied seems to be related to the isentropic transport of air masses that took place simultaneously in the lower- and middle-stratosphere, respectively from the polar region and from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. In fact, the ozone increase observed by mid April 2008 resulted simultaneously: (1) from an equator-ward departure of polar air masses characterised with a high-ozone layer in the lower stratosphere (near the 475 K isentropic level), and (2) from a reverse isentropic transport from the tropics to mid- and high-latitudes in the upper stratosphere (nearby the 700 K level). The increase of ozone observed over Kerguelen from the 16-April ozonesonde profile is thus attributed to a concomitant isentropic transport of ozone in two stratospheric layers: the tropical air moving southward and reaching over Kerguelen in the upper stratosphere, and the polar air passing over the same area but in the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Cumulus Parameterization on Subseasonal Prediction in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (12) ◽  
pp. 4747-4765
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Weber ◽  
Clifford F. Mass ◽  
Daehyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Global Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
Channel Simulation ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractMonthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observations to assess the roles of grid spacing and convective parameterization on the representation of tropical convection and midlatitude forecast skill. Specifically, the performance of a global convection-permitting model (CPM) configuration with a uniform 3-km mesh is compared to that of a global 15-km mesh with and without convective parameterization, and of a variable-resolution “channel” simulation using 3-km grid spacing only in the tropics with a scale-aware convection scheme. It is shown that global 3-km simulations produce realistic tropical precipitation statistics, except for an overall wet bias and delayed diurnal cycle. The channel simulation performs similarly, although with an unrealistically higher frequency of heavy rain. The 15-km simulations with and without cumulus schemes produce too much light and heavy tropical precipitation, respectively. Without convection parameterization, the 15-km global model produces unrealistically abundant, short-lived, and intense convection throughout the tropics. Only the global CPM configuration is able to capture eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation events, and the 15-km runs favor stationary or westward-propagating convection organized at the planetary scale. The global 3-km CPM exhibits the highest extratropical forecast skill aloft and at the surface, particularly during week 3 of each hindcast. Although more cases are needed to confirm these results, this study highlights many potential benefits of using global CPMs for subseasonal forecasting. Furthermore, results show that alternatives to global convection-permitting resolution—using coarser or spatially variable resolution—feature compromises that may reduce their predictive performance.

scholarly journals Sensitivities of the Madden–Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 4759-4778
Author(s):  
Jun-Ichi Yano ◽  
Nils P. Wedi
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Theoretical Investigations ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Original Motivation

Abstract. The sensitivities of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts to various different configurations of the parameterized physics are examined with the global model of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The motivation for the study was to simulate the MJO as a nonlinear free wave under active interactions with higher-latitude Rossby waves. To emulate free dynamics in the IFS, various momentum-dissipation terms (“friction”) as well as diabatic heating were selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes from 20∘ S to 20∘ N. The reduction of friction sometimes improves the MJO forecasts, although without any systematic tendency. Contrary to the original motivation, emulating free dynamics with an operational forecast model turned out to be rather difficult, because forecast performance sensitively depends on the specific type of friction turned off. The result suggests the need for theoretical investigations that much more closely follow the actual formulations of model physics: a naive approach with a dichotomy of with or without friction simply fails to elucidate the rich behaviour of complex operational models. The paper further exposes the importance of physical processes other than convection for simulating the MJO in global forecast models.

scholarly journals The Annual Cycle of the Axial Angular Momentum of the Atmosphere

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 757-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Egger ◽  
Klaus-Peter Hoinka
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Mass Term ◽  
Friction Torque ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Latitude Belt ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Earlier analyses of the annual cycle of the axial angular momentum (AAM) are extended to include mass flows and vertical transports as observed, and to establish angular momentum budgets for various control volumes, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analyses (ERA) for the years 1979–92, transformed to height coordinates. In particular, the role of the torques is examined. The annual cycle of the zonally averaged angular momentum is large in the latitude belt 20° ⩽ |ϕ| ⩽ 45°, with little attenuation in the vertical up to a height of ∼12 km. The oscillation of the mass term (AAM due to the earth’s rotation) dominates in the lower troposphere, but that of the wind term (relative AAM) is more important elsewhere. The cycle of the friction torque as related to the trade winds prevails in the Tropics. Mountain torque and friction torque are equally important in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The annual and the semiannual cycle of the global angular momentum are in good balance with the global mountain and friction torques. The addition of the global gravity wave torque destroys this agreement. The transports must be adjusted if budgets of domains of less than global extent are to be considered. Both a streamfunction, representing the nondivergent part of the fluxes, and a flux potential, describing the divergences/convergences, are determined. The streamfunction pattern mainly reflects the seasonal shift of the Hadley cell. The flux potential links the annual oscillations of the angular momentum with the torques. It is concluded that the interaction of the torques with the angular momentum is restricted to the lower troposphere, in particular, in the Tropics. The range of influence is deeper in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, presumably because of the mountains. The angular momentum cycle in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is not affected by the torques and reflects interhemispheric flux patterns. Budgets for the polar as well as for the midlatitude domains show that fluxes in the stratosphere are important.

scholarly journals Detecting and Tracking Coastal Precipitation in the Tropics: Methods and Insights into Multiscale Variability of Tropical Precipitation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 6689-6705
Author(s):  
David Coppin ◽  
Gilles Bellon ◽  
Alexander Pletzer ◽  
Chris Scott
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Climate Prediction Center

AbstractWe propose an algorithm to detect and track coastal precipitation systems and we apply it to 18 years of the high-resolution (8 km and 30 min) Climate Prediction Center CMORPH precipitation estimates in the tropics. Coastal precipitation in the Maritime Continent and Central America contributes to up to 80% of the total rainfall. It also contributes strongly to the diurnal cycle over land with the largest contribution from systems lasting between 6 and 12 h and contributions from longer-lived systems peaking later in the day. While the diurnal cycle of coastal precipitation is more intense over land in the summer hemisphere, its timing is independent of seasons over both land and ocean because the relative contributions from systems of different lifespans are insensitive to the seasonal cycle. We investigate the hypothesis that coastal precipitation is enhanced prior to the arrival of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) envelope over the Maritime Continent. Our results support this hypothesis and show that, when considering only coastal precipitation, the diurnal cycle appears reinforced even earlier over islands than previously reported. We discuss the respective roles of coastal and large-scale precipitation in the propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent. We also document a shift in diurnal cycle with the phases of the MJO, which results from changes in the relative contributions of short-lived versus long-lived coastal systems.

Rainfall–runoff modelling in northern Australia: A guide to modelling strategies in the tropics

2012 ◽  
Vol 462-463 ◽  
pp. 28-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Petheram ◽  
P. Rustomji ◽  
F.H.S. Chiew ◽  
J. Vleeshouwer
Keyword(s):  
Northern Australia ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Modelling Strategies ◽  
The Tropics

scholarly journals Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Austral Summer

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 1105-1125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eriko Nishimoto ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Convective Region ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its statistical significance are examined for austral summer (DJF) in neutral ENSO events during 1979–2013. The amplitude of the OLR-based MJO index (OMI) is typically larger in the easterly phase of the QBO at 50 hPa (E-QBO phase) than in the westerly (W-QBO) phase. Daily composite analyses are performed by focusing on phase 4 of the OMI, when the active convective system is located over the eastern Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent. The composite OLR anomaly shows a larger negative value and slower eastward propagation with a prolonged period of active convection in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase. Statistically significant differences of the MJO activities between the QBO phases also exist with dynamical consistency in the divergence of horizontal wind, the vertical wind, the moisture, the precipitation, and the 100-hPa temperature. A conditional sampling analysis is also performed by focusing on the most active convective region for each day, irrespective of the MJO amplitude and phase. Composite vertical profiles of the conditionally sampled data over the most active convective region reveal lower temperature and static stability around the tropopause in the E-QBO phase than in the W-QBO phase, which indicates more favorable conditions for developing deep convection. This feature is more prominent and extends into lower levels in the upper troposphere over the most active convective region than other tropical regions. Composite longitude–height sections show similar features of the large-scale convective system associated with the MJO, including a vertically propagating Kelvin response.

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