Time-varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain

Author(s):  
Jin-Yu Chen ◽  
Xue-Hong Zhu ◽  
Mei-Rui Zhong
2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Essahbi Essaadi ◽  
Rafik Jbir

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in a selection of MENA countries. The oil price shock is identified by assuming that an individual country's performance does not affect world oil prices. We put particular emphasis on the time-varying relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic variables and implement their approach in a Time-Varying Structural VAR model (TV-SVAR) framework. The main findings are that the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks have evolved over time in MENA countries. Interestingly, however, we do not find a lot of heterogeneity among the MENA countries they consider, even though their list includes both net oil exporters (Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia) and net oil importers (Turkey and Tunisia) 


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