Modelling fundamentals for forecasting capital flows to emerging markets

2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashoka Mody ◽  
Mark P. Taylor ◽  
Jung Yeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows

scholarly journals Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 493-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo J. Caballero ◽  
Alp Simsek
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Global Liquidity

In Caballero and Simsek (2017), we develop a model of fickle capital flows and show that, when countries are similar, international flows create global liquidity and mitigate crises despite their fickleness. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric situation of Emerging Markets (EM) exchanging flows with Developed Markets (DM) that feature lower returns but less frequent crises. Relatively high DM returns help to mitigate EM crises by reducing fickle inflows and by providing greater liquidity. The situation dramatically changes as the DM returns fall, as this increases the fickle inflows driven by reach for yield and exacerbates EM crises.

Regulating Capital Flows: A Historical Perspective

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Guilt By Association

This chapter summarizes how thinking about capital flows and their management has evolved in both policymaking and academic circles. Many advanced economies used restrictions on capital inflows for prudential purposes—even as they pursued financial liberalization more broadly—until the 1980s, when capital account restrictions began to be swept away as part of broader liberalization efforts. Likewise, many emerging markets that had inflow controls for prudential reasons dismantled them when liberalizing domestic financial markets and controls over outflows. That the use of capital controls as a means of managing inflows is often viewed with suspicion may be partly a “guilt by association” with outflow controls and exchange restrictions. Historically, these have been more prevalent and more intensive, and their purpose has been to prop up authoritarian regimes or poor macroeconomic policies, often affecting both current and capital transactions.

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