A Wind Power Forecasting Method and Its Confidence Interval Estimation

2013 ◽  
Vol 186 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Iizaka ◽  
Toru Jintsugawa ◽  
Hideyuki Kondo ◽  
Yosuke Nakanishi ◽  
Yoshikazu Fukuyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Confidence Interval Estimation ◽  
Power Forecasting

A Wind Power Forecasting Method and Its Confidence Interval Estimation

2011 ◽  
Vol 131 (10) ◽  
pp. 1672-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Iizaka ◽  
Ryo Jintsugawa ◽  
Hideyuki Kondo ◽  
Yousuke Nakanishi ◽  
Yoshikazu Fukuyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Confidence Interval Estimation ◽  
Power Forecasting

A wind power forecasting method with confidence interval

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Iizaka ◽  
Toru Jintsugawa ◽  
Hideyuki Kondo ◽  
Yousuke Nakanishi ◽  
Yoshikazu Fukuyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Power Forecasting

Research on Power Flow Interface Oriented Regional Wind Power Forecasting Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 875-877 ◽  
pp. 1858-1862
Author(s):  
Yun Yu ◽  
Bo Yang ◽  
Fu Jiang Ge
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Flow ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Utilization Rate ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Grid Side ◽  
Power Forecasting

Accurate regional wind power forecasting guarantees the security and economics of the power system integrated with large scale of wind power. Aiming at the gross wind power output of the whole regional grid area, existing regional wind power forecasting methods fails to characterize the locally gross output power of the wind farm aggregation forming a power flow interface with specified flow restraints. In this paper, the work flow of the power flow oriented regional wind power forecasting method based on whole-grid regional wind power forecasting methods was presented first. Then, the data preparation, data preprocessing and the mathematical description of the algorithm for our method were presented. Finally, the case study proved the feasibility and effectiveness of our method. The conclusion indicates that the method presented in this paper implements a multiple temporal and spatial scale regional win power forecasting technology, which can obviously improve the accuracy of regional wind power forecasting, relieve the pressure for the grid side and improve the utilization rate of wind power.

Modeling and Uncertainty Estimation of Wind Power Curve Based on Recorded Field Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 986-987 ◽  
pp. 694-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Lin ◽  
Shu Qiang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Estimation ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Power Curve ◽  
Speed Level ◽  
Confidence Interval Estimation

Wind power curve of wind turbine has great importance in the prediction of wind power. The measured wind power curve is drawn by method of bins based on recorded field data; the uncertainty factors of the wind power curve is analyzed, and a non-parametric confidence interval estimation method is proposed based on analyzing the statistical characteristics of the data distribution. By means of the method, a probability density function model for wind power in each wind speed level is established, and the uncertainty estimation confidence interval of wind power curve is obtained on the basis of deterministic estimation. The example analysis proves the efficiency and feasibility of the method proposed in this paper.

scholarly journals An Ultra-short-term Wind Power Forecasting Method with Special Error Distribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 1974 (1) ◽  
pp. 012010
Author(s):  
Shuheng Wei ◽  
Deping Ke ◽  
Jian Yang ◽  
Shangguang Jiang ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Power Forecasting
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