Comment on Letter: “Post‐Normal Science and the Management of Uncertainty in Bioelectromagnetic Controversies” by A.W. Wood

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-84
Author(s):  
Steven Weller ◽  
Victor Leach ◽  
Murray May
Keyword(s):  
Normal Science ◽  
Management Of Uncertainty

scholarly journals Post-Normal Climate Science

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Krauss ◽  
Mike S. Schäfer ◽  
Hans von Storch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Science ◽  
Scientific Policy ◽  
Normal Science ◽  
Normative Judgment ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Social Realm ◽  
Scientific Policy Advice ◽  
Management Of Uncertainty ◽  
Special Symposium

This special symposium grew out of a workshop held in Hamburg in 2011 (Krauss and von Storch 2012) and of a long-term interest in climate research as post-normal science. A decade earlier, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch (1999) stated that the management of uncertainty and its extension into the political and social realm make climate science a case for post-normal science. Interpreting a survey among German and American climate scientists, they suggested that scientific policy advice is the result of both scientific knowledge and normative judgment.

The post-normal science of precaution

Futures ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerry Ravetz
Keyword(s):  
Normal Science

The Quantification and Management of Uncertainty in Reserves

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.J. Smith ◽  
D.J. Hendry ◽  
A.R. Crowther
Keyword(s):  
Management Of Uncertainty

Flexibility decision pathways in the management of uncertainty in property development: experience from an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Oluwafemi Ayodele ◽  
Abel Olaleye
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Development Experience ◽  
High Level ◽  
Stratified Analysis ◽  
Management Of Uncertainty ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the flexible decision pathways adopted by development advisors in the management of uncertainty in property development. Specifically, the study examines the quantitative techniques adopted by development advisors, the level of adoption of real options analysis (ROA) vis-à-vis the level of adoption of heuristics. Finally, the types of options exercised in property development were analysed. This was with a view to providing information that could mitigate the challenges of risk and uncertainty and increasing investment failure associated with property development in Nigeria, an emerging market. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a survey method and was conducted on development advisors in property development companies/estate surveying and valuation firms in Nigeria. A total of 195 development advisors participated in the survey. The respondents were required to rate, on a five-point Likert scale, the level of adoption of the quantitative models, heuristics and the types of flexibility exercised during development. The data were analysed using mean rating, one-sample t-test and analysis of variance. Findings The results revealed that there was a preference for the use of traditional techniques, while probabilistic appraisal models and other contemporary methods such as ROA are seldom adopted by development advisors. While there was a significantly high level of adoption of heuristics, the stratified analysis examining the profile of the respondents and the level of adoption of ROA and heuristics suggests that years of experience influenced the level of adoption of both the ROA and heuristics by the development advisors. The analysis of the types of flexibility showed that staging/phasing and changing the initial use/design were the most prevalent flexibility pathways adopted during the development. However, the study found that there was no significant difference concerning the choice of flexibility being adopted by development advisors who used ROA and those who did not. Practical implications The study provides an understanding of the decision pathways adopted by development advisors in an emerging market like Nigeria. Originality/value The paper contributes to studies on decision-making pathways in the management of uncertainty under dynamic conditions by development advisors in emerging markets.

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