The application of neural networks to predict abnormal stock returns using insider trading data

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 381-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Safer
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Insider Trading ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

scholarly journals Mispricing of Book-Tax Differences and the Trading Behavior of Short Sellers and Insiders

2013 ◽  
Vol 89 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina S. Chi ◽  
Morton Pincus ◽  
Siew Hong Teoh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Insider Trading ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short Sellers ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

ABSTRACT We find evidence that investors misprice information contained in book-tax differences (BTDs), measured as the ratio of taxable income to book income, TI/BI. Low TI/BI predicts worse earnings growth and abnormal stock returns than high TI/BI. We find that short sellers and insiders arbitrage BTD mispricing, but the arbitrage is imperfect because of constraints on short selling and insider trading. Under SFAS No. 109 the predictability is stronger for TEMP/BI, the temporary component of TI/BI, which reflects greater managerial discretion. The results are incremental to a large set of known accruals-based anomaly predictors. We suggest that a sunshine policy of disclosing a reconciliation of book and taxable incomes can reduce mispricing of BTDs and improve capital market resource allocation. Data Availability: Data are obtained from the public sources as indicated in the text.

scholarly journals The Relationship of Insider Trading Announcements, Ownership Structure and Corporate Governance: An Event Study Analysis of Athens Stock Exchange Market Technology Firms

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Antoniadis ◽  
Christos Gkasis ◽  
Stamatis Kontsas
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Insider Trading ◽  
Boards Of Directors ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Athens Stock Exchange ◽  
The Relationship

In the present paper, the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms of a firm and stock returns triggered by insider trading announcements is examined. Event study methodology has been used to evaluate the influence of 636 insider trading announcements performed by executives of 14 listed firms in the Athens Stock Exchange, that operate in the technology sector, during the period 2007-2013. The relationship between cumulative abnormal stock returns (CARs), caused by the announcements, and corporate governance characteristics, was then examined for different time windows, both for sales and purchases of stocks by insiders. Our findings suggest that insider trading, especially in purchases, performed by CEOs and members of the Boards of Directors, has a significant effect on stock returns in the long run. More specifically concentrated ownership structures and control were found to have a negative/positive effect in abnormal stock returns of the firms only in long-term periods of time following the announcement of purchases/sales.

Studying the Effect of Changing the Managing Director on the Abnormal Returns of Shares of Companies Listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussein Hasan ◽  
Hudaa Nadhim Khalbas ◽  
Farqad Mohammed Bakr AL Saadi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

The aim of this research is to study the market reaction to the change of the managing director and how this change affects the abnormal returns of the shares. The research is based on the information published by the companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, and 35 companies were selected for the period from 2015 to 2019. The results of the hypothesis test for this study show that there is a negative and significant relationship between the change of the managing director and abnormal stock returns. On the other hand, investors undervalue stock prices when changing CEOs. As a result, the stock returns are less than expected.

“Red” and “green” flags of risk disclosures – identifying associations between positive and negative key phrases and consecutive cumulative abnormal stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Yvonne Nagel ◽  
Stephan Fuhrmann ◽  
Thomas W. Guenther
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Information Value ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Key Phrases ◽  
Risk Disclosures ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose The usefulness of risk disclosures (RDs) to support equity investors’ investment decisions is highly discussed. As prior research criticizes the extensive aggregation of risk information in existing empirical research, this paper aims to provide an attempt to identify disaggregated risk information associated with cumulative abnormal stock returns (CARs). Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of 2,558 RDs of companies listed in the S&P 500 index. The RDs were filed within 10 K filings between 2011 and 2017. First, this study automatically extracted 35,685 key phrases that occurred in a maximum of 1.5% of the RDs. Second, this study performed stepwise regressions of these key phrases and identified 67 (78) key phrases that show positive (negative) associations with CARs. Findings The paper finds that investors seem to value most the more common key phrases just below the 1.5% rarest key phrase threshold and business-related key phrases from RDs. Furthermore, investors seem to perceive key phrases that contain words indicating uncertainty (impacts) as a negative (positive) rather than a positive (negative) signal. Research limitations/implications The research approach faces limitations mainly due to the selection of the included key phrases, the focus on CARs and the methodological choice of the stepwise regression analysis. Originality/value The study reveals the potential for companies to increase the information value of their RDs for equity investors by providing tailored information within RDs instead of universal phrases. In addition, the research indicates that the tailored RDs encouraged by the SEC contain relevant information for investors. Furthermore, the results may guide the attention of equity investors to relevant text passages whose deeper analysis might be useful with regard to investors’ capital market decisions.

scholarly journals Do corporate bond rating revisions convey information about earnings and dividend changes?

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven T. Anderson ◽  
Gurmeet Singh Bhabra ◽  
Harjeet S. Bhabra ◽  
Asjeet S. Lamba
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Rating ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Rating Downgrades

We study the information content of corporate bond rating changes regarding future earnings and dividends. Consistent with previous findings, rating downgrades are associated with negative abnormal stock returns, while rating upgrades appear to be nonevents. For downgrades, earnings decline in the two years prior to and the year of the rating change announcement but increase in the year after the rating review. We also find that rating downgrades are followed by a subsequent downward adjustment in dividends. While rating upgrades follow a period of rising earnings, they do not signal any increase in future earnings and no subsequent dividend adjustments are observed. Overall, our results indicate that rating agencies respond more to permanent changes in cash flows and provide little information, if any, about future cash flows.

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