Retrieval of tropical cyclone statistics with a high-resolution coupled model and data

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 652-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Zhang ◽  
M. Zhao ◽  
S.-J. Lin ◽  
X. Yang ◽  
W. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Coupled Model

Forecasting a Large Number of Tropical Cyclone Intensities around Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kosuke Ito ◽  
Tohru Kuroda ◽  
Kazuo Saito ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled model in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations were performed by running the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) and atmosphere–ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM). A total of 281 3-day forecasts were compiled for 34 TCs from April 2009 to September 2012 for each model. The performance of these models is compared with the JMA global atmospheric spectral model (GSM) that is used for the operational TC intensity guidance. The TC intensities are better predicted by CMSM than the other models. The improvement rates in CMSM relative to GSM and AMSM generally increase with increasing forecast time (FT). CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 27.4% and 21.3% at FT = 48 h in terms of minimum sea level pressure, respectively. Regarding the maximum wind speed, CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 12.8% and 19.5% at FT = 48 h, respectively. This is due to smaller initial intensity errors and sea surface cooling consistent with in situ observations that suppress erroneous TC intensification. Thus, a high-resolution coupled model is promising for TC intensity prediction in the area surrounding Japan, where most of the TCs are in a decay stage. In contrast, coupling to the upper-ocean model yields only a negligible difference in the TC track forecast skill on average.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (19) ◽  
pp. 9910-9917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kohei Yoshida ◽  
Masato Sugi ◽  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Simulations

scholarly journals A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Renzhi Jing ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Thomas R. Knutson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.

Regional oceanic and biogeochemical modeling strategy :forced or coupled model ?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véra Oerder ◽  
Pierre-Amaël Auger ◽  
Joaquim Bento ◽  
Samuel Hormazabal
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Coupled Simulation ◽  
Biogeochemical Modeling ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oceanic Model

<p><span> Regional high resolution biogeochemical modeling studies generaly use an oceanic model forced by prescribed atmospheric conditions. The computational cost of such approach is far lower than using an high resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. However, forced oceanic models cannot represent adequately the atmospheric reponse to the oceanic mesoscale (~10-100km) structures and the impact on the oceanic dynamics.</span></p><p><span>To assess the bias introduce by the use of a forced model, we compare here a regional high resolution (1/12º) ocean-atmosphere coupled model with oceanic simulations forced by the outputs of the coupled simulation. Several classical forcing strategies are compared : bulk formulae, prescribed stress, prescribed heat fluxes with or without Sea Surface Temperature (SST) restoring term, .... We study the Chile Eastern Boundary Upwelling System, and the oceanic model includes a biogeochemical component,</span></p><p><span>The coupled model oceanic mesoscale impacts the atmosphere through surface current and SST anomalies. Surface currents mainly affect the wind stress while SST impacts both the wind stress and the heat fluxes. In the forced simulations, mesoscale structures generated by the model internal variability does not correspond to those of the coupled simulation. According to the forcing strategy, the atmospheric conditions are not modified by the forced model mesoscale, or the modifications are not realistic. The regional dynamics (coastal upwelling, mesoscale activity, …) is affected, with impact on the biogeochemical activity.</span></p><p> </p><p> </p><p><em>This work was supported by the FONDECYT project 3180472 (Chile), with computational support of the NLHPC from the Universidad de Chile, the HPC from the Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso and the Irene HPC from the GENCI at the CEA (France).</em></p>

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