scholarly journals SURGE AND WAVE CONDITIONS UNDER WARMER ICE-FREE ARCTIC OCEAN

2020 ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Martin Mall ◽  
Ryota Nakamura ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Modelling Approach

In the past decade the fast changes within the Arctic basin have become more pronounced. The Arctic amplification has an extremely wide range of global and local implications. The latter has already caused negative impact to coastal communities along the Arctic coastline, where the decreasing annual sea ice extent leaves much of the coastal water open for potential high wave attacks for a longer period of time. The study aims to investigate the use of pseudo-climate modelling approach in the Arctic by looking at meteorology, surge and waves.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/SjVaZRnFva8

scholarly journals “Climate response functions” for the Arctic Ocean: a proposed coordinated modelling experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2833-2848 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Marshall ◽  
Jeffery Scott ◽  
Andrey Proshutinsky
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Basin ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Beaufort Gyre ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Modelling Experiment ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
Climate Change Community

Abstract. A coordinated set of Arctic modelling experiments, which explore how the Arctic responds to changes in external forcing, is proposed. Our goal is to compute and compare climate response functions (CRFs) – the transient response of key observable indicators such as sea-ice extent, freshwater content of the Beaufort Gyre, etc. – to abrupt step changes in forcing fields across a number of Arctic models. Changes in wind, freshwater sources, and inflows to the Arctic basin are considered. Convolutions of known or postulated time series of these forcing fields with their respective CRFs then yield the (linear) response of these observables. This allows the project to inform, and interface directly with, Arctic observations and observers and the climate change community. Here we outline the rationale behind such experiments and illustrate our approach in the context of a coarse-resolution model of the Arctic based on the MITgcm. We conclude by summarizing the expected benefits of such an activity and encourage other modelling groups to compute CRFs with their own models so that we might begin to document their robustness to model formulation, resolution, and parameterization.

Contrasting changes in surface waters and barrens over the past 60 years for a subarctic forest–tundra site in northern Manitoba based on remote sensing imagery

2013 ◽  
Vol 50 (9) ◽  
pp. 967-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Umbanhowar ◽  
Philip Camill ◽  
Mark Edlund ◽  
Christoph Geiss ◽  
Wesley Durham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Surface Area ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Remote Sensing Imagery ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images ◽  
Wide Range

Intensified warming in the Arctic and Subarctic is resulting in a wide range of changes in the extent, productivity, and composition of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Analysis of remote sensing imagery has documented regional changes in the number and area of ponds and lakes as well as expanding cover of shrubs and small trees in uplands. To better understand long-term changes across the edaphic gradient, we compared the number and area of water bodies and dry barrens (>100 m2) between 1956 (aerial photographs) and 2008–2011 (high-resolution satellite images) for eight ∼25 km2 sites near Nejanilini Lake, Manitoba (59.559°N, 97.715°W). In the modern landscape, the number of water bodies and barrens were similar (1162 versus 1297, respectively), but water bodies were larger (mean 3.1 × 104 versus 681 m2, respectively) and represented 17% of surface area compared with 0.4% for barrens. Over the past 60 years, total surface area of water did not change significantly (16.7%–17.1%) despite a ∼30% decrease in numbers of small (<1000 m2) water bodies. However, the number and area of barrens decreased (55% and 67%, respectively) across all size classes. These changes are consistent with Arctic greening in response to increasing temperature and precipitation. Loss of small water bodies suggests that wet tundra areas may be drying, which, if true, may have important implications for carbon balance. Our observations may be the result of changes in winter conditions in combination with low permafrost ice content in the region, in part explaining regional variations in responses to climate change.

scholarly journals Sea ice inertial oscillations in the Arctic Basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1187-1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gimbert ◽  
D. Marsan ◽  
J. Weiss ◽  
N. C. Jourdain ◽  
B. Barnier
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Original Method ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Inertial Motion ◽  
Inertial Oscillations ◽  
Dimensional Parameter ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. An original method to quantify the amplitude of inertial motion of oceanic and ice drifters, through the introduction of a non-dimensional parameter M defined from a spectral analysis, is presented. A strong seasonal dependence of the magnitude of sea ice inertial oscillations is revealed, in agreement with the corresponding annual cycles of sea ice extent, concentration, thickness, advection velocity, and deformation rates. The spatial pattern of the magnitude of the sea ice inertial oscillations over the Arctic Basin is also in agreement with the sea ice thickness and concentration patterns. This argues for a strong interaction between the magnitude of inertial motion on one hand, the dissipation of energy through mechanical processes, and the cohesiveness of the cover on the other hand. Finally, a significant multi-annual evolution towards greater magnitudes of inertial oscillations in recent years, in both summer and winter, is reported, thus concomitant with reduced sea ice thickness, concentration and spatial extent.

scholarly journals NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ARCTIC HALOCLINE FORMATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
Marina A. Tarkhanova ◽  
Elena N. Golubeva
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Main Attention ◽  
The Past ◽  
Model Distribution ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Thermohaline Stratification

This paper discusses issues related to the analysis of the Arctic halocline state over the past decades. Observational data show that the layer of halocline in the Arctic Ocean significantly changed in the last 40 years, which may affect the Arctic ice cover. For the study we used a three-dimensional ocean and sea ice numerical model developed at the ICMMG SB RAS. The main attention was devoted to the analysis of the model distribution of water salinity in the upper 250-meter layer and its variability. Based on numerical experiments on the sensitivity of thermohaline stratification to variations in atmospheric effects and the intensity of river flow, we identified areas of the Arctic basin in which the variability of the Arctic halocline was the most pronounced.

scholarly journals Cultural Tourism in Georgia: Opportunities at Global and Local Levels

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (34) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamar Koblianidze ◽  
Nino Sachaleli
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Cultural Tourism ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Main Attention ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Local Levels ◽  
Modern Technologies

There is an opinion that culture and tourism have a symbolic relationship with each other. Art, dance, rituals, and legends are at risk of being forgotten by modern generations, but they can be revived by tourists who have an interest in the cultures of ancient countries such as Georgia. Monuments and cultural heritage can even be protected by foundations and organizations in the field of tourism and culture, which protect and popularize them and at the same time increase the number of visitors. Today, creativity and modern technologies are changing the connection between culture and tourism. This has made cultural tourism become more desirable and accessible. With the help of technologies, it is getting closer and closer to modern approaches than it was in the past. The paper outlines the challenges of developing sustainable cultural tourism in Georgia. Statistics on state documents, projects, and cultural tours organized by local tour companies was also discussed. They employed both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies which showed that besides pandemic, there is a demand for cultural tourism. Georgian tour companies are offering a wide range of cultural tours and tourists have interest in it. Its full potential has not been harnessed and the main attention is paid to UNESCO heritage. The development of cultural tourism poses challenges (e.g., implementation of digital technologies, quality control mechanisms) for Georgia to become more recognizable within this kind of synergy, which is called the fusion of culture and tourism.

scholarly journals Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars H. Smedsrud ◽  
Mari H. Halvorsen ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Kjell Kloster
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. The Arctic Basin exports between 600,000 and 1 million km2 of it's sea ice cover southwards through Fram Strait each year, or about 10 % of the sea-ice covered area inside the basin. During winter, ice export results in growth of new and relatively thin ice inside the basin, while during summer or spring, export contributes directly to open water further north that enhances the ice-albedo feedback during summer. A new updated time series from 1935 to 2014 of Fram Strait sea ice area export shows that the long-term annual mean export is about 880,000 km2, with large inter-annual and multidecadal variability, and no long-term trend over the past 80 years. Nevertheless, the last decade has witnessed increased ice export, with several years having annual ice export that exceed 1 million km2. Evaluating the trend onwards from 1979, when satellite based sea ice coverage became more readily available, reveals an increase in annual export of about +6 % per decade. The observed increase is caused by higher southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure over Greenland. Spring and summer area export increased more (+11 % per decade) than in autumn and winter (+2.6 % per decade). Contrary to the last decade, the 1950–1970 period had relatively low export during spring and summer, and consistently mid-September sea ice extent was higher during these decades than both before and afterwards. We thus find that export anomalies during spring have a clear influence on the following September sea ice extent in general, and that for the recent decade, the export may be partially responsible for the accelerating decline in Arctic sea ice extent.

scholarly journals The Recent Decline of the Arctic Summer Sea-Ice Cover in the Context of Internal Climate Variability

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Dorn ◽  
K. Dethloff ◽  
A. Rinke ◽  
M. Kurgansky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Arctic Summer

By means of a 21-year simulation of a coupled regional pan-Arctic atmosphere-ocean-ice model for the 1980's and 1990's and comparison of the model results with SSM/I satellite-derived sea-ice concentrations, the patterns of maximum amplitude of interannual variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice cover are revealed. They are shown to concentrate beyond an area enclosed by an isopleth of barotropic planetary potential vorticity that marks the edge of the cyclonic rim current around the deep inner Arctic basin. It is argued that the propagation of the interannual variability signal farther into the inner Arctic basin is hindered by the dynamic isolation of upper Arctic Ocean and the high summer cloudiness usually appearing in the central Arctic. The thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover in recent years is likely to be jointly responsible for its exceptionally strong decrease in summer 2007 when sea-ice decline was favored by anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the western Arctic Ocean, which can be regarded as a typical feature for years with low sea-ice extent. In addition, unusually low cloud cover appeared in summer 2007, which led to substantial warming of the upper ocean. It is hypothesized that the coincidence of several favorable factors for low sea-ice extent is responsible for this extreme event. Owing to the important role of internal climate variability in the recent decline of sea ice, a temporal return to previous conditions or stabilization at the current level can not be excluded just as further decline.

scholarly journals Regional impacts of climate change in the Arctic and Antarctic

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 543-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Weller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Past

Regional assessments of impacts due to global climate change are a high priority in the international programs on global-change research. in the polar regions, climate models indicate an amplification of global greenhouse warming, but there are large differences between the results of various models, and uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of the expected changes. Also, the observed high-latitude climate trends over the past few decades are much more regional and patchy than predicted by the models. As a first step in assessing possible climate impacts, model results are compared with observations of changes in temperature, precipitation, sea-ice extent, the permafrost regime and other cryospheric parameters. While considerable uncertainties remain in the long-term prediction of change, there is some agreement between model results and observed trends by season on shorter time-scales, The warming observed over the land masses of the Arctic over the past few decades is matched by corresponding observed decreases in snow cover the glacier mass, balances, by thawing of the permafrost, and to a lesser degree by reductions in sea-ice extent. in Antarctica, warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea regions is associated with large decreases in ice-shelf areas and reduced ice thicknesses on the lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Major future impacts due to global greenhouse warming are likely to include permafrost thawing on and and its consequences for ecosystems and humans; changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems in the Arctic and Southern Ocean: economic impacts on fisheries, petroleum and other human activities; and social impacts on northern indigenous populations. Some of these impacts will have positive ramifications, but most are likely to be detrimental. While uncertainties exist about the future, climate change in the polar regions during the past few decades can be shown to have had major impacts already which will become much mole pronounced if present trends continue.

scholarly journals Divergence of Arctic shrub growth associated with sea ice decline

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (52) ◽  
pp. 33334-33344
Author(s):  
Agata Buchwal ◽  
Patrick F. Sullivan ◽  
Marc Macias-Fauria ◽  
Eric Post ◽  
Isla H. Myers-Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Structural Equation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Growth Responses ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Wide Range

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.

scholarly journals Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice volume: Causes and consequences

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Claude Gascard ◽  
Jinlun Zhang ◽  
Mehrad Rafizadeh
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Past ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. The drastic reduction of the Arctic sea ice over the past 40 years is the most glaring evidence of climate change on Planet Earth. Among all the variables characterizing sea ice, the sea ice volume is by far the most sensitive one for climate change since it is decaying at the highest rate compared to sea ice extent and sea ice thickness. In 40 years the Arctic Ocean has lost about 3/4 of its sea ice volume at the end of the summer season corresponding to a reduction of both sea ice extent and sea ice thickness by half on average. From more than 16 000 km3, 40 years ago, the Arctic sea ice summer minimum dropped down to less than 4000 km3 during the most recent summers. Being a combination of Arctic sea ice extent and sea ice thickness, the Arctic sea ice volume is difficult to observe directly and accurately. We estimated cumulative Freezing-Degree Days (FDD) over a 9 month freezing time period (September to May each year) based on ERA Interim surface air temperature reanalysis over the whole Arctic Ocean and for the past 38 years. Then we compared the Arctic sea ice volume based on sea ice thickness deduced from cumulative FDD with Arctic sea ice volume estimated from PIOMAS (Pan Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System) and from the ESA CRYOSAT-2 satellite. The results are strikingly similar. The warming of the atmosphere is playing an important role in contributing to the Arctic sea ice volume decrease during the whole freezing season (September to May). In addition, the FDD spatial distribution exhibiting a sharp double peak-like feature is reflecting the Multi Y ear Ice (MYI) versus First Year Ice (FYI) dual disposition typical of the Arctic sea ice cover. This is indicative of a significant contribution from the vertical ocean heat fluxes throughout the ice depending on MYI versus FYI distribution and the snow layer on top of it influencing the surface air temperature accordingly. In 2018 the Arctic MYI vanished almost completely for the first time ever over the past 40 years. The quasi complete disappearance of the Arctic sea ice is more likely to happen in summer within the next 15 years with broad consequences for Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems, climate and weather patterns on a planetary scale and globally on human activities.

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