scholarly journals EFFECTS OF STORM SURGE ON WATER LEVELS OF THE LAGOON SYSTEM OF JACAREPAGUÁ – RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

2018 ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Monica F.Y. Buckmann ◽  
Laura Aguilera ◽  
Paulo Cesar C. Rosman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Tidal Prism ◽  
Lagoon System ◽  
Maximum Elevation ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Water Elevations ◽  
The Impact

The Lagoon System of Jacarepaguá is the most vulnerable coastal area of Brazil due to its high population density and important economic activities. Severe meteorological conditions due to climate changes are more likely to affect the lagoon system in the future, increasing the exposure of the area and the probability of flooding of the low-lying surrounding areas. To determine the vulnerability of the area to diverse agents, this work addressed the impact of different combinations of sea level rise, heavy rainfall and storm surges. The study cases considered two different bathymetry conditions, the actual silting bathymetry, and the resulting bathymetry after a planned dredging project. Tidal prism, the maximum water elevations and the time of occurrence were analyzed. The main results showed that storm surge has the most impact on the maximum water elevations, overcoming the impact of an increase in the sea level, river flow and changes in bathymetry. The results of time lags comparing the time of occurrence of maximum elevation recorded at the open sea and the time of occurrence of maximum elevation on the north margin, the most populated area, of the lagoon system showed a time lag of 13-17h. The benefits of the planned dredging project would be mostly to allow a better water renovation in the lagoons, due to a higher tidal prism.

The impact of sea level rise on storm surge water levels in the northern part of the German Bight

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 118-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Arns ◽  
T. Wahl ◽  
S. Dangendorf ◽  
J. Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Sea level rise and its impact on storm surge and tide in Shanghai

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 541-554
Author(s):  
ZENGHAO QIN
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Spring Tide ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Based on both the historical tidal gauge and ground subsidence records for the seven stations in Shanghai region, a non-linear statistical model fitting the variation of the mean annual eustatic sea level (ESL) is established to reveal the characteristics of the ESL in the past century and to estimate the mean annual relative sea level (RSL) in the next five decades by the model extrapolation for Shanghai region. The estimated values of the sea level rises are assessed to be fairly reasonable. The impact of the estimated sea level rise in the coming decades on the storm surges and tides in Shanghai region is numerically computed by using the two-dimensional nonlinear storm surge and tide dynamic models. In addition, on the basis of numerical integration of the same dynamic model, the probable maximum water levels resulting from the RSL in the coming decades are also estimated by the probable optimal combination of the track, intensity, landfall site, incident angle of tropical cyclone and spring tide.  

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

scholarly journals Anatomy of simultaneous flood peaks at a lowland confluence

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 5599-5613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tjitske J. Geertsema ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling ◽  
Remko Uijlenhoet ◽  
Paul J. J. F. Torfs ◽  
Antonius J. F. Hoitink
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Simultaneous Occurrence ◽  
Main Stream ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Main River ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Independent Observations ◽  
Flood Peaks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lowlands are vulnerable to flooding due to their mild topography in often densely populated areas with high social and economic value. Moreover, multiple physical processes coincide in lowland areas, such as those involved in river–sea interactions and in merging rivers at confluences. Simultaneous occurrence of such processes can result in amplifying or attenuating effects on water levels. Our aim is to understand the mechanisms behind simultaneous occurrence of discharge waves in a river and its lowland tributaries. Here, we introduce a new way of analyzing lowland discharge and water level dynamics, by tracing individual flood waves based on dynamic time warping. We take the confluence of the Meuse River (∼33 000 km2) with the joining tributaries of the Dommel and Aa rivers as an example, especially because the January 1995 flood at this confluence was the result of the simultaneous occurrence of discharge peaks in the main stream and the tributaries and because independent observations of water levels and discharge are available for a longer period. The analysis shows that the exact timing of the arrival of discharge peaks is of little relevance because of the long duration of the average discharge wave compared to typical time lags between peaks. The discharge waves last on average 9 days, whereas the lag time between discharge peaks in the main river and the tributaries is typically 3 days. This results in backwaters that can rise up to 1.5 m over a distance of 4 km from the confluence. Thus, local measures to reduce the impact of flooding around the confluence should account for the long duration of flood peaks in the main system.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

scholarly journals High accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using LiDAR data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Elevation Data

Abstract. Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gaël Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals MODELING SURGE-DEPENDENT VEGETATION EFFECTS ON HURRICANE-GENERATED WAVES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Chen ◽  
Haihong Zhao ◽  
Don Liu
Keyword(s):  
Energy Dissipation ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Marsh Vegetation ◽  
Vegetation Effects ◽  
Vegetation Height ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surge Height

The study utilizes a coupled wave-surge-vegetation modeling system to quantify the effects of salt marsh vegetation on hurricane-generated waves. The wave model incorporates the energy dissipation model of Chen and Zhao (2012) for random waves over vegetation. The storm surge model incorporates the vegetal drag for both rigid and flexible types of vegetation. The surge and wave models with the vegetation effects are coupled, allowing the spatially and temporally varying vegetation heights, water levels and depth-averaged currents from the storm surge model to be fed into the wave model. Numerical experiments have revealed that vegetation can change the surge height and a storm surge can change the vegetation height. Both control the wave reduction rate in flooded wetlands. The impact of vegetation on hurricane-generated waves consists of indirect and direct effects. The former is caused by the changes in surge height due to vegetation. The latter comes from the direct interaction between vegetation and the oscillatory motion of surface waves. It has been found that flexible marsh vegetation deflects under the hydrodynamic force produced by a hurricane. The deflected height not only reduces the flow resistance in the surge model, but also decreases the energy dissipation caused by vegetation in the wave model. Consequently, neglecting plant flexibility may lead to overestimates of vegetation effects and exaggeration of wetland potential for flood risk reduction.

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

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