scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC SHORELINE CHANGE MODELING AND RISK ESTIMATION OF EROSION

Author(s):  
Yan Ding ◽  
Ashley E. Frey ◽  
Sung-Chan Kim ◽  
Rusty E. Permenter

Prediction of long-term shoreline changes is a key task in planning and management of coastal zones and regional sediment management. Due to complex natural features of offshore waves, sediments, and longshore sediment transport, quantifying uncertainties of shoreline evolution and risks of extreme shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) is of vital importance for practicing uncertainty- or risk-based design of shorelines. This paper presents probabilistic shoreline change modeling to quantify uncertainties of shoreline variations by using numerical-model-based Monte-Carlo simulations. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and shoreline changes induced by random waves from offshore. A probability density function with a modified tail distribution is developed to capture stochastic features of wave heights under fair weather and storm conditions. It produces a time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). Probabilistic modeling of shoreline change is demonstrated by computing spatiotemporal variations of statistical parameters such as mean and variance of shoreline changes along an idealized coast bounded by two groins. Maximum shoreline changes in return years with a confidence range are also estimated by using maximum likelihood method. Reasonable results of obtained probabilistic shoreline changes reveal that this model-based Monte-Carlo simulation and uncertainty estimation approach are applicable to facilitate risk/uncertainty-based design and planning of shorelines.

Author(s):  
Yan Ding ◽  
Sung-Chan Kim ◽  
Richard B. Styles ◽  
Rusty L. Permenter

Driven by wave and current, sediment transport alongshore and cross-shore induces shoreline changes in coasts. Estimated by breaking wave energy flux, longshore sediment transport in littoral zone has been studied for decades. Cross-shore sediment transport can be significant in a gentle-slope beach and a barred coast due to bar migration. Short-term beach profile evolution (typically for a few days or weeks) has been successfully simulated by reconstructing nonlinear wave shape in nearshore zone (e.g. Hsu et al 2006, Fernandez-Mora et al. 2015). However, it is still lack of knowledge on the relationship between cross-shore sediment transport and long-term shoreline evolution. Based on the methodology of beach profile evolution modeling, a semi-empirical closure model is developed for estimating phase-average net cross-shore sediment transport rate induced by waves, currents, and gravity. This model has been implemented into GenCade, the USACE shoreline evolution model.


Author(s):  
Khoudir Mezouar ◽  
Romeo Ciortan

Abstract The coastline of Zemmouri Bay on the northeast coast of Algeria with about 50 km of shoreline has been eroding since 1970. Changes of the sandy shoreline are continuous and occur at diverse spatial and temporal scales. This erosion is a major crisis and it potentially impacts the coastal population and natural environment. In order to understand and predict these morphological changes, an accurate description of sediment transport by waves and currents and shoreline change is important. This paper presents a comprehensive study of wave refraction, current-driven sediment transport and shoreline change. Results show that the study area exhibits a great variety of shoreline evolution trends, with erosion prevailing in the eastern and central sectors and stability or even accretion in the Western area.


Author(s):  
Jung Lyul Lee ◽  
John Rong-Chung Hsu

Salient and tombolo are common features found in the lee of detached breakwaters. The empirical parabolic bay shape equation (PBSE) can be applied when their planform is fully developed, whereas numerical model is required to simulate the dynamic shoreline evolution prior to the planform reaching static equilibrium. This paper reports the excellent performance of PBSE through the comparison with labaratory results and the development of a numerical model for dynamic shoreline change that utilizes the concept of PBSE and equilibrium beach profile. Formulation proposed for sediment transport rate is theoretically compared with that in GENESIS. The governing equation for the combined shoreline response model is based on the one-line beach model, which includes shoreline changes owing to longshore and cross-shore sediment transport. Finally, numerical results reveal, by comparing with an experimental case in the laboratory, that the model is adequate to successively simulating the dynamic evolutions of the shoreline behind a detached breakwater.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 572
Author(s):  
Jung-Eun Oh ◽  
Yeon S. Chang ◽  
Weon Mu Jeong ◽  
Ki Hyun Kim ◽  
Kyong Ho Ryu

Video monitoring systems (VMS) have been used for beach status observation but are not effective for examining detailed beach processes as they only measure changes to the shoreline and backshore. Here, we extracted longshore sediment transport (LST) from VMS in order to investigate long- and short-term littoral processes on a pocket beach. LST estimated by applying one-line theory, wave power, and the oblique angle of incident waves were used to understand shoreline changes caused by severe winter storms. The estimated LST showed good agreement with the shoreline changes because the sediments were trapped at one end of the pocket beach and the alongshore direction of transported sediments was corresponded to the direction of LST. The results also showed that the beach that was severely eroded during storms was also rapidly recovered following the evolution of LST, which indicates that the LST may play a role in the recovery process while the erosion was mainly caused by the cross-shore transport due to storm waves. After the beach was nourished, beach changes became more active, even under lower wave energy conditions, owing to the equilibrium process. The analysis presented in this study could be applied to study inhomogeneous beach processes at other sites.


Author(s):  
Sakka Sakka ◽  
Mulia Purba ◽  
I Wayan Nurjaya ◽  
Hidayat Pawitan ◽  
Vincentius P. Siregar

The study of shoreline changes during 1990 - 2008 in the delta of the River Jeneberang, Makassar was conducted by evaluating sediment transport into and out of a cell. Longshore sediment transport was computed by considering the influence of heights and angles of the breaking waves. Results of calculation of sediment transport showed that the dominant of sediment transport was to the north during the arrival of the southwest and west waves, and to the south when the wave coming from the northwest. Comparison between shore profiles resulting from model and coastline satellite imagery showed similarity. The difference between the two tend to be occurred at the head land part of the shoreline. This was due to complexity of coastal dynamic at the area. The results of the 19 years shoreline simulation showed that there was a tendency of abrasion at the upsteam head land part as the wave energy tend to converge and accretion at the bay part as the wave energy tend to diverge. Abrasion mainly occurred at Tanjung Bunga (head land) where the coast retreat 181.1 m. Accretion occur in the bay area (Tanjung Merdeka) where the coast advance to the sea for about 59.8 m. The shoreline tend to be stable when the profile was straight such as Barombong Coast.Keywords: abrasion, accretion, sediment transport, shoreline changes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Ding ◽  
Sung-Chan Kim ◽  
Rusty L. Permenter ◽  
Richard B. Styles ◽  
Jeffery A. Gebert

This technical report presents two applications of the GenCade model to simulate long-term shoreline evolution along the Delaware Coast driven by waves, inlet sediment transport, and longshore sediment transport. The simulations also include coastal protection practices such as periodic beach fills, post-storm nourishment, and sand bypassing. Two site-specific GenCade models were developed: one is for the coasts adjacent to the Indian River Inlet (IRI) and another is for Fenwick Island. In the first model, the sediment exchanges among the shoals and bars of the inlet were simulated by the Inlet Reservoir Model (IRM) in the GenCade. An inlet sediment transfer factor (γ) was derived from the IRM to quantify the capability of inlet sediment bypassing, measured by a rate of longshore sediments transferred across an inlet from the updrift side to the downdrift side. The second model for the Fenwick Island coast was validated by simulating an 11-y ear-long shoreline evolution driven by longshore sediment transport and periodic beach fills. Validation of the two models was achieved through evaluating statistical errors of simulations. The effects of the sand bypassing operation across the IRI and the beach fills in Fenwick Island were examined by comparing simulation results with and without those protection practices. Results of the study will benefit planning and management of coastal sediments at the sites.


2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Sutat Weesakul ◽  
Somruthai Tasaduak

Equilibrium bay is a bay that its shoreline is stable and does not change with time in long term. This concept can be applied for coastal protection. Experiments on dynamic equilibrium bay planform are conducted in a laboratory. There is one location of sediment supply source into a bay near upcoast headland and its magnitude vary from case to case. Wave obliquity varies from small to moderate values. These are two main parameters while wave condition is kept constant. The final bay planforms are investigated and recorded once they reach equilibrium with condition that sediment transport gradient approaches zero and no further shoreline change are observed. The parabolic equation similar to that for static equilibrium is newly proposed. The coefficients are originally derived and found to be a function of wave obliquity and the ratio of sediment supplied into bay to longshore sediment transport. The new dynamic equilibrium bay equation can be used and applied to study morphology change with variation of supplied sediment from inland.


Author(s):  
B Gopikrishna ◽  
MC Deo

The shoreline adjoining Chilika Lake, situated along India’s east coast, has multiple tidal inlets which connect the lake with Bay of Bengal. The shoreline behavior near such inlets is generally studied with the help of a suitable numerical model. Such models are run on the basis of historical data of waves and other information. However, the waves in future may show different strength and pattern than the past as a result of the climate change induced by global warming. It is thus necessary that the model input should correspond to future or projected data of wind and waves. In this work, we have used the wind information from a state-of-the-art regional climate model, CORDEX RegCM-4, of future 25 years in order to run a shoreline evolution model and have derived the longshore sediment transport rate as well as the shoreline change rate around Chilika inlets. These future values are compared with corresponding ones of the past 25 years. It is found that at the given location, mean wind might go up by 20%, and this could raise the mean significant wave height strongly by 32%. The direction and frequency of occurrence of waves would also change, and this in turn will cause an increase in the net littoral drift by 41% and net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 84%. Interestingly, the present site where accretion was prevalent in the past may see erosion in future at the rate of about 1 m per year.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document