scholarly journals HURRICANE WATER LEVEL PREDICTION USING SURROGATE MODELING

2018 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Melby ◽  
Fatima Diop ◽  
Norberto Nadal-Caraballo ◽  
Alex Taflanidis ◽  
Victor Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
High Fidelity ◽  
Forward Speed ◽  
Efficient Design ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Kriging Approach ◽  
Total Water Level ◽  
Water Level Prediction

For this study, the surrogate was constructed using kriging (Jia et al. 2015). The high fidelity coupled surge and wave numerical modelling for the Gulf of Mexico was used as the training set. The numerical model was either ADCIRC and STWAVE or ADCIRC and SWAN in the nearshore. The surrogate models were trained using tropical storm parameters (latitude, longitude, central pressure, radius to maximum wind speed, storm heading, and forward speed) at a specific location as inputs and individual responses (e.g. surge) as outputs. Tide was computed separately using ADCIRC and linearly superimposed with surge to get total water level. The regional surrogates accurately reproduced both peaks and time series of water levels for historical storms. An extensive validation was conducted to determine the optimal application of the kriging approach. In this paper we will report the efficient design-of-experiments approach, surrogate training and validation.

scholarly journals The CI-FLOW Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (11) ◽  
pp. 1427-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne Van Cooten ◽  
Kevin E. Kelleher ◽  
Kenneth Howard ◽  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Level ◽  
Water Level Prediction

scholarly journals Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 613-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. F. Rasilla Álvarez ◽  
J. C. García Codron
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Level

Abstract. This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

Influence of Forcing Conditions on Total Water Level Prediction and Spatiotemporal Patterns in Delaware Bay, USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fernando Muñoz Pauta ◽  
Dongxiao Yin ◽  
Jiannan Tian ◽  
Roham Bakhtyar ◽  
Kyle Mandli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Delaware Bay ◽  
Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Level ◽  
Water Level Prediction

scholarly journals Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 2785-2799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulpu Leijala ◽  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Milla M. Johansson ◽  
Havu Pellikka ◽  
Lauri Laakso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Variations ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Total Water Level

Abstract. Tools for estimating probabilities of flooding hazards caused by the simultaneous effect of sea level and waves are needed for the secure planning of densely populated coastal areas that are strongly vulnerable to climate change. In this paper we present a method for combining location-specific probability distributions of three different components: (1) long-term mean sea level change, (2) short-term sea level variations and (3) wind-generated waves. We apply the method at two locations in the Helsinki archipelago to obtain total water level estimates representing the joint effect of the still water level and the wave run-up for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the study sites leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty related to the associated scenarios contribute notably to the total water levels for the year 2100. A test with theoretical wave run-up distributions illustrates the effect of the relative magnitude of the sea level variations and wave conditions on the total water level. We also discuss our method's applicability to other coastal regions.

scholarly journals Deriving the 100-Year Total Water Level around the Coast of Corsica by Combining Trivariate Extreme Value Analysis and Coastal Hydrodynamic Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1347
Author(s):  
Jessie Louisor ◽  
Jérémy Rohmer ◽  
Thomas Bulteau ◽  
Faïza Boulahya ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Extreme Value ◽  
Total Water Level

As low-lying coastal areas can be impacted by flooding caused by dynamic components that are dependent on each other (wind, waves, water levels—tide, atmospheric surge, currents), the analysis of the return period of a single component is not representative of the return period of the total water level at the coast. It is important to assess a joint return period of all the components. Based on a semiparametric multivariate extreme value analysis, we determined the joint probabilities that significant wave heights (Hs), wind intensity at 10 m above the ground (U), and still water level (SWL) exceeded jointly imposed thresholds all along the Corsica Island coasts (Mediterranean Sea). We also considered the covariate peak direction (Dp), the peak period (Tp), and the wind direction (Du). Here, we focus on providing extreme scenarios to populate coastal hydrodynamic models, SWAN and SWASH-2DH, in order to compute the 100-year total water level (100y-TWL) all along the coasts. We show how the proposed multivariate extreme value analysis can help to more accurately define low-lying zones potentially exposed to coastal flooding, especially in Corsica where a unique value of 2 m was taken into account in previous studies. The computed 100y-TWL values are between 1 m along the eastern coasts and a maximum of 1.8 m on the western coast. The calculated values are also below the 2.4 m threshold recommended when considering the sea level rise (SLR). This highlights the added value of performing a full integration of extreme offshore conditions, together with their dependence on hydrodynamic simulations for screening out the coastal areas potentially exposed to flooding.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

A Meta-Modelling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Wave Run-Up and Total Water Level on Beaches

2018 ◽  
Vol 342 ◽  
pp. 475-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
June Gainza ◽  
Ana Rueda ◽  
Paula Camus ◽  
Antonio Tomás ◽  
Fernando J. Méndez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Total Water Level ◽  
Modelling Approach

scholarly journals SYNTHESIS OP HURRICANE RESPONSE HYDROGRAPHS

1982 ◽  
Vol 1 (18) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Rodney J. Sobey
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Breaking Wave ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Coastal Site ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Synthesis Technique ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Total Water Level

A hindcasting methodology is described for the total water level and wave hydrographs at a coastal site during a hurricane. It accommodates phasing of the separate components of the sustained water level (astronomical tide, storm tide, breaking wave setup) , as well as storm variability and coastal bathymetry. Complete hindcast models are utilised, but an intermediate cost and precision is achieved by compromising the number of complete hindcast storms, rather than the precision of the hindcast model. A synthesis technique is developed to predict the response hydrographs of the remaining storms in the historical data set.

Application of the Spectral Nudging on Global Tides Towards a Global Total Water Level Prediction System

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsubasa Kodaira ◽  
Natacha Bernier ◽  
Keith R. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Spectral Leakage ◽  
Spectral Nudging ◽  
Vector Difference ◽  
Tidal Constituents ◽  
Total Water Level

Abstract With the long-term goal of developing an ensemble forecast system for coastal flooding, we are developing a dynamically-based, numerical model of the global ocean. The model is based on the NEMO framework and has been used to predict global tides and surges in previous studies. This study focuses on the optimization of the joint prediction of both tides and surges, the two main components of total water level that cause coastal flooding. To improve the predictions of the tide we use a modified form of “spectral nudging”. We show this leads to significant improvements in the prediction of the M2 tide in the open ocean, and also in the shallow regions closer to shore where the model is not nudged. The median value of the vector difference of the tidal amplitude based on sea level observations and a data-assimilative model, and the predictions of our ocean model, is reduced from 11.2 cm to 2.66 cm by the nudging. The improvement deteriorates significantly however if additional tidal constituents are included in the model (most notably S2). This is explained in terms of spectral leakage between tidal bands associated with the nudging methodology and a straightforward solution is proposed.

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