scholarly journals RAPID PROBABILISTIC HURRICANE SURGE AND DAMAGE FORECASTING USING SURGE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Jennifer Linnea Irish ◽  
Celso Ferreira ◽  
Francisco Olivera ◽  
Ikpoto Udoh ◽  
Youn Kyung Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Hurricane Ike ◽  
Probability Approach

In this paper, a joint probability approach is used with scaling laws for hurricane surge to rapidly develop probabilistic based hurricane surge and damage forecasts. The method presented is demonstrated along the Texas, USA coastline for Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in September of 2008. The probabilistic approach presented here is both accurate and fast, with a single surge and percent damage forecast taking less than one minute while representing more than 170,000 distinct hurricane possibilities.

Are the antecedent drought conditions magnifying the summer hot extremes in Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia Páscoa ◽  
Célia Gouveia ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Andreia Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
Climate Events

<p>The occurrence of extreme climate events such as droughts and heatwaves can have negative economic, environmental and social impacts. The simultaneous or sequential occurrence of these extreme events can increase these impacts, and their frequency is expected to increase in many regions of the world. Moreover, the occurrence of hot days/nights was shown to be correlated to drought conditions in Mediterranean areas. Recently the catastrophic fire seasons of 2019/2020 in Australia has been pointed out to be associated with a drought exacerbation of the summer hot conditions. Additionally, temperature trends In Australia since 1970 are positive in most of the territory, whereas annual precipitation presents a negative trend in the East and a positive trend in the West.</p><p>In this work, we propose to analyze the relation between summer hot days/nights and antecedent drought conditions in Australia. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at time-scales of 1 to 6 months was used to assess drought conditions. The indices Number of Hot Days (NHD) and Number of Hot Nights (NHN) were computed as the number of days on each month that exceed the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. Data to compute these indices were retrieved from the ERA5 climate reanalysis dataset, and from the CRU TS4.03 dataset. Temperature data from the ACORN-SAT dataset was also used. A correlation analysis was performed between SPEI and NHD/NHH, using the concurrent months, and also the SPEI values on the previous 1 to 3 months. Significant negative correlations were obtained in southern regions. A probabilistic approach was also used, using copula functions, which allowed to estimate the joint probability of occurrence of dry and hot events.</p><p>Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by projects FireCast (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017), and IMPECAF (PTDC/CTA-CLI/28902/2017). Andreia Ribeiro thanks FCT for the grant PD/BD/114481/2016.</p>

scholarly journals A probabilistic seabed-ice keel interaction model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Dupont ◽  
Dany Dumont ◽  
Jean-François Lemieux ◽  
Elie Dumas-Lefebvre ◽  
Alain Caya
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Interaction Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Landfast Ice ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. In some coastal regions of the Arctic Ocean, as well as in shallow seasonally ice-covered seas, grounded ice ridges contribute to stabilizing and maintaining a landfast ice cover. Recently, a grounding scheme representing this effect on sea ice dynamics was introduced and tested in a coupled ice-ocean model. This grounding scheme, based on a parameterization of ridged keel thickness linearly correlated to the mean thickness, improves the simulation of landfast ice in many regions such as in the East Siberian Sea, the Laptev Sea and along the coast of Alaska. Nevertheless, this parameterization is based solely on the mean properties of sea ice. Here, we extend the parameterization by taking into account subgridscale ice thickness distribution and bathymetry distributions, which are generally non-normal, and by computing the maximum seabed stress as a joint probability interaction between the ice and the seabed. The probabilistic approach shows a reasonably good agreement with observations and with the previously proposed grounding scheme while potentially offering more physical insights in the formation of landfast ice.

scholarly journals Ship Motions in Shallow Water As the Base for a Probabilistic Approach Policy

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Vantorre ◽  
Erik Laforce ◽  
Katrien Eloot ◽  
Jan Richter ◽  
Jeroen Verwilligen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Water ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Ship Motions ◽  
Wave Spectra ◽  
Fluid Mud ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Regular Waves ◽  
Directional Wave ◽  
Probabilistic Criteria ◽  
Selection Of

A calculation tool has been developed for determining tidal windows for deep-drafted ships approaching and leaving the Belgian harbors according to probabilistic criteria. The calculations are based on a database containing response functions for the vertical motions in waves and squat data for a selection of representative ships. The database contains both results of model tests carried out in the Towing tank for maneuvers in shallow water – co-operation Flanders Hydraulics Research & Ghent University in Antwerp (Belgium), as well as calculated values. During the experiments, draft, trim, under keel clearance (7 to 20% of draft) and speed have been varied. The tests were performed in regular waves with lengths which are small compared to ship length, and in wave spectra that are typical for the Belgian coastal area. For given input data (ship characteristics, speed, tide, directional wave spectra, bottom, trajectory, current, departure time), the tool calculates the probability of bottom touch during the transit, so that a tidal window can be determined. Other restrictions, such as penetration into fluid mud layers and current, are taken into account as well.

Probabilistic approach to measuring early-warning signals of systemic contagion risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cho-Hoi Hui ◽  
Chi-Fai Lo ◽  
Xiao-Fen Zheng ◽  
Tom Fong
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Sovereign Spreads ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
Liquidity Shock

This paper proposes a model based on probability density functions associated with dynamics of underlying asset prices to measure contagion-induced systemic risk in the market. The two new risk measures with closed-form formulas derived from the model are (1) the rate of change of the probability of triggering a shock determined by the joint dynamics of prices of systemically important assets/entities and less important ones and (2) the distress correlation between the two types of assets/entities, which can provide forward-looking signals of such risk. The model is applied to the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and demonstrates how systemic liquidity shocks can build up in the sovereign debt market due to contagion between sovereign risk of small countries (i.e., Portugal) and systemically important countries (i.e., Italy and Spain). A signal of the rate of change of the joint probability appeared in April 2011 before the systemic liquidity shock occurred in November 2011. There exist endogenous critical levels of sovereign spreads, above which the signal materializes.

scholarly journals Copula Based Spatial Analysis of Drought Return Period in Southwest of Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Kavianpour ◽  
Mohammadreza Seyedabadi ◽  
Saber Moazami ◽  
Omid Aminoroayaie Yamini
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Southwest Of Iran

In the past years, Khuzestan province which is located in the southwest of Iran has experienced severe droughts. Drought can be explained by its characteristics known as duration or severity. However, combination of the two features by probabilistic approach is appeared to be a well improved method to describe the phenomena. The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate statistical method of determining drought based on simultaneous analysis of two drought characteristics. Here, precipitation data from twenty stations were used to determine drought characteristics, by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Joint probability function of two variables were built via copula functions. The drought return period was calculated in the form of two scenarios. The first scenario is, based on an assumption that drought is recognized by at least one of the two specific characteristics. Drought in the second scenario is distinguished by the two characteristics in a joint probabilistic form. According to research results, there was no significant difference between the north and south of Khuzestan in the study of single characteristics of drought. While analyzing two characteristics of the drought, the return period in the north was shorter than the south. The return period of droughts in the east was always shorter than in the west. The drought return period varies from 30 to 52 months and 50 to 87 months for the first and second scenarios, respectively.

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