scholarly journals STORM SURGE PREDICTION IN TIDAL RIVERS: A NEW CONCEPTION

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Winfried Siefert
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
The North ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Tidal Rivers ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Warning Services

The heights of extreme storm surges in the North Sea rise up to U or 5 m above mean high tide. Warning services are established along the coast, mainly based on empirical connections between weather and tide data. A lot of wrong announcements are given especially for places up the tidal rivers. This can become disasterous for a lot of modern, highly sensitive harbour facilities. Thus storm surges are the famous plagues of the southern North Sea coast. Moreover, the "ten plagues of Germany" occurred during the last 16 years. So recently a new conception for storm surge prediction in tidal rivers was developed - with the result of a lot of new understandings of tidal dynamics in rivers (SIEFERT, 1968). We investigated about 130 storm surges, hindcasting all of them and forecasting about 20 of them, and analysed their behaviour in tidal rivers. Now we are able to forecast the upstream heights and even the shape of the surge curve in the Elbe with an accuracy of ± 2 dm, ' 6 hours in advance.

scholarly journals North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3582-3595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Sylvin Müller-Navarra ◽  
Jürgen Jensen ◽  
Frederik Schenk ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Late Nineteenth

Abstract The detection of potential long-term changes in historical storm statistics and storm surges plays a vitally important role for protecting coastal communities. In the absence of long homogeneous wind records, the authors present a novel, independent, and homogeneous storm surge record based on water level observations in the North Sea since 1843. Storm surges are characterized by considerable interannual-to-decadal variability linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Time periods of increased storm surge levels prevailed in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries without any evidence for significant long-term trends. This contradicts with recent findings based on reanalysis data, which suggest increasing storminess in the region since the late nineteenth century. The authors compare the wind and pressure fields from the Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CRv2) with the storm surge record by applying state-of-the-art empirical wind surge formulas. The comparison reveals that the reanalysis is a valuable tool that leads to good results over the past 100 yr; previously the statistical relationship fails, leaving significantly lower values in the upper percentiles of the predicted surge time series. These low values lead to significant upward trends over the entire investigation period, which are in turn supported by neither the storm surge record nor an independent circulation index based on homogeneous pressure readings. The authors therefore suggest that these differences are related to higher uncertainties in the earlier years of the 20CRv2 over the North Sea region.

scholarly journals The North Sea surge of 31 October–1 November 2006 during Storm Britta

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 273-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony James Kettle
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
The North ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Storm

Abstract. Offshore energy infrastructure, including the petroleum and wind energy sectors, are susceptible to damage and interruption by extreme meteorological events. In northwest Europe and especially the North Sea, these extreme meteorological events are mostly associated with severe storms in the autumn and winter seasons. In the North Sea, storm surges have an impact on the offshore energy sector mainly from the flooding of port facilities and from strong ocean currents causing extra structural loading and bottom scouring. Storm Britta on 31 October–1 November 2006 was an important North Sea storm with a high surge along the coast of the Netherlands and Germany and a significant number of high wave reports. The paper presents an analysis of the national tide gauge records of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark to spectrally isolate and reconstruct time series components corresponding to the storm surge, semi-diurnal tide, and short period contribution. The semi-diurnal tides and storm surge during Storm Britta are tracked counter-clockwise around the North Sea from Scotland to northern Denmark. The storm surge was remarkable for its pronounced peak in the coastal area between the Netherlands and Germany with no precedent in the ∼100 year measurement record. The short period component of the tide gauge records show large oscillations during the height of the storm that may correspond with reports of unusually high waves at nearby coastal locations.

Storm surges in the North Sea during the winter 1953-4

1956 ◽  
Vol 235 (1201) ◽  
pp. 260-274 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Ports ◽  
Phase Angles

Records of sea level for several North Sea ports for the winter of 1953-4 have been in vestigated. They were split into 14-day intervals, and each 14-day record was Fourieranalyzed to determine if any non-astronomical periods were present. There was evidence of some activity between 40 and 50 h period, and a determination of the phase angles at different ports showed that the activity could be due to a disturbance travelling southwards from the north of the North Sea. The disturbance was partly reflected somewhere near the line from Lowestoft to Flushing, so that one part returned past Flushing and Esbjerg towards Bergen while the other part travelled towards Dover, and there was evidence of its existence on the sea-current records taken near St Margaret's Bay. These results were confirmed by subtracting the predicted astronomical tidal levels from the observed values of sea level and cross-correlating the residuals so obtained for each port with those found at Lowestoft. The residuals at Lowestoft and Aberdeen were compared with the meteorological conditions, and it was found that, although they could be attributed to a large extent to conditions within the North Sea, there was an additional effect due to a travelling surge which was of the same order of magnitude at both Lowestoft and Aberdeen and which was closely related to the rate of change with time of the atmospheric pressure difference between Wick and Bergen.

scholarly journals An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

Ocean Science ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sterl ◽  
H. van den Brink ◽  
H. de Vries ◽  
R. Haarsma ◽  
E. van Meijgaard
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

scholarly journals The significance of coastal bathymetry representation for modelling the tidal response to mean sea level rise in the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Norbert Winkel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Due to climate change an accelerated mean sea level rise is expected. One key question for the development of adaptation measures is how mean sea level rise affects tidal dynamics in shelf seas such as the North Sea. Owing to its low-lying coastal areas, the German Bight (located in the southeast of the North Sea) will be especially affected. Numerical hydrodynamic models help to understand how mean sea level rise changes tidal dynamics. Models cannot adequately represent all processes in overall detail. One limiting factor is the resolution of the model grid. In this study we investigate which role the representation of the coastal bathymetry plays when analysing the response of tidal dynamics to mean sea level rise. Using a shelf model including the whole North Sea and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the German Bight we investigate the changes in M2 amplitude due to a mean sea level rise of 0.8 and 10 m. The shelf model and the German Bight Model react in different ways. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 0.8 m the M2 amplitude in the shelf model generally increases in the region of the German Bight. In contrast, the M2 amplitude in the German Bight Model increases only in some coastal areas and decreases in the northern part of the German Bight. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 10 m the M2 amplitude increases in both models with largely similar spatial patterns. In two case studies we adjust the German Bight Model in order to more closely resemble the shelf model. We find that a different resolution of the bathymetry results in different energy dissipation changes in response to mean sea level rise. Our results show that the resolution of the bathymetry especially in flat intertidal areas plays a crucial role for modelling the impact of mean sea level rise.

A fine grid tidal flow and storm surge model of the North Sea

1992 ◽  
Vol 12 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 213-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.K. Verboom ◽  
J.G. de Ronde ◽  
R.P. van Dijk
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Tidal Flow ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

Operational storm surge models for the North Sea

1983 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.H. Peeck ◽  
R. Proctor ◽  
C. Brockmann
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
North Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea
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