scholarly journals Quantifying uncertainty in annual runoff due to missing data

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9531
Author(s):  
Craig R. See ◽  
Mark B. Green ◽  
Ruth D. Yanai ◽  
Amey S. Bailey ◽  
John L. Campbell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Rate ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest ◽  
Gap Filling ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Actual Flow ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Long-term streamflow datasets inevitably include gaps, which must be filled to allow estimates of runoff and ultimately catchment water budgets. Uncertainty introduced by filling gaps in discharge records is rarely, if ever, reported. We characterized the uncertainty due to streamflow gaps in a reference watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) from 1996 to 2009 by simulating artificial gaps of varying duration and flow rate, with the objective of quantifying their contribution to uncertainty in annual streamflow. Gaps were filled using an ensemble of regressions relating discharge from nearby streams, and the predicted flow was compared to the actual flow. Differences between the predicted and actual runoff increased with both gap length and flow rate, averaging 2.8% of the runoff during the gap. At the HBEF, the sum of gaps averaged 22 days per year, with the lowest and highest annual uncertainties due to gaps ranging from 1.5 mm (95% confidence interval surrounding mean runoff) to 21.1 mm. As a percentage of annual runoff, uncertainty due to gap filling ranged from 0.2–2.1%, depending on the year. Uncertainty in annual runoff due to gaps was small at the HBEF, where infilling models are based on multiple similar catchments in close proximity to the catchment of interest. The method demonstrated here can be used to quantify uncertainty due to gaps in any long-term streamflow data set, regardless of the gap-filling model applied.

Comment on “Long-term decline of sugar maple following forest harvest, Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire”

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (7) ◽  
pp. 861-862
Author(s):  
Scott W. Bailey ◽  
Robert P. Long ◽  
Stephen B. Horsley
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Acer Saccharum ◽  
Sugar Maple ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hubbard Brook ◽  
Whole Tree

Cleavitt et al. (2018, Can. J. For. Res. 48(1): 23–31, doi: 10.1139/cjfr-2017-0233 ) report a lack of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) regeneration in Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), Watershed 5 (W5), following whole-tree clearcut harvesting and purport that harvesting-induced soil calcium depletion contributed to regeneration failure of this species. In New England, clearcutting is a silvicultural strategy used to promote less tolerant species, especially birch (Betula spp.; Marquis (1969), Birch Symposium Proceedings, USDA Forest Service; Leak et al. (2014), doi: 10.2737/NRS-GTR-132 ), which is just the outcome that the authors report. While this study reports an impressive, long-term data set, given broad interest in sugar maple and sustainability of forest management practices, we feel that it is critical to more fully explore the role of nutrition on sugar maple dynamics, both prior to and during the experiment, and to more fully review the scientific record on the role of whole-tree clearcutting in nutrient-induced sugar maple dynamics.

scholarly journals Gap-filling strategies for annual VOC flux data sets

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2429-2442 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bamberger ◽  
L. Hörtnagl ◽  
M. Walser ◽  
A. Hansel ◽  
G. Wohlfahrt
Keyword(s):  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Gap Filling ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mountain Meadow ◽  
Flux Data ◽  
Flux Measurements ◽  
Annual Patterns

Abstract. Up to now the limited knowledge about the exchange of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) between the biosphere and the atmosphere is one of the factors which hinders more accurate climate predictions. Complete long-term flux data sets of several VOCs to quantify the annual exchange and validate recent VOC models are basically not available. In combination with long-term VOC flux measurements the application of gap-filling routines is inevitable in order to replace missing data and make an important step towards a better understanding of the VOC ecosystem–atmosphere exchange on longer timescales. We performed VOC flux measurements above a mountain meadow in Austria during two complete growing seasons (from snowmelt in spring to snow reestablishment in late autumn) and used this data set to test the performance of four different gap-filling routines, mean diurnal variation (MDV), mean gliding window (MGW), look-up tables (LUT) and linear interpolation (LIP), in terms of their ability to replace missing flux data in order to obtain reliable VOC sums. According to our findings the MDV routine was outstanding with regard to the minimization of the gap-filling error for both years and all quantified VOCs. The other gap-filling routines, which performed gap-filling on 24 h average values, introduced considerably larger uncertainties. The error which was introduced by the application of the different filling routines increased linearly with the number of data gaps. Although average VOC fluxes measured during the winter period (complete snow coverage) were close to zero, these were highly variable and the filling of the winter period resulted in considerably higher uncertainties compared to the application of gap-filling during the measurement period. The annual patterns of the overall cumulative fluxes for the quantified VOCs showed a completely different behaviour in 2009, which was an exceptional year due to the occurrence of a severe hailstorm, compared to 2011. Methanol was the compound which, at 381.5 mg C m−2 and 449.9 mg C m−2, contributed most to the cumulative VOC carbon emissions in 2009 and 2011, respectively. In contrast to methanol emissions, however, considerable amounts of monoterpenes (−327.3 mg C m−2) were deposited onto the mountain meadow during 2009 caused by a hailstorm. Other quantified VOCs had considerably lower influences on the annual patterns.

scholarly journals Gap-filling strategies for annual VOC flux data sets

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 17785-17818 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bamberger ◽  
L. Hörtnagl ◽  
M. Walser ◽  
A. Hansel ◽  
G. Wohlfahrt
Keyword(s):  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Gap Filling ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mountain Meadow ◽  
Flux Data ◽  
Flux Measurements ◽  
Annual Patterns

Abstract. Up to now the limited knowledge about the exchange of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) between the biosphere and the atmosphere is one of the factors which hinders more accurate climate predictions. Complete long-term flux data sets of several VOCs to quantify the annual exchange and validate recent VOC models are basically not available. In combination with long-term VOC flux measurements the application of gap-filling routines is inevitable in order to replace missing data and make an important step towards a better understanding of the VOC ecosystem-atmosphere exchange on longer time scales. We performed VOC flux measurements above a mountain meadow in Austria during two complete growing seasons (from snowmelt in spring to snow reestablishment in late autumn) and used this data set to test the performance of four different gap-filling routines, mean diurnal variation (MDV), mean gliding window (MGW), look up tables (LUT) and linear interpolation (LIP), in terms of their ability to replace missing flux data in order to obtain reliable VOC sums. According to our findings the MDV routine was outstanding with regard to the minimization of the gap-filling error for both years and all quantified VOCs. The other gap-filling routines, which performed gap-filling on 24 h average values, introduced considerably larger uncertainties. The error which was introduced by the application of the different filling routines increased linearly with the number of data gaps. Although average VOC fluxes measured during the winter period (complete snow coverage) were close to zero, these were highly variable and the filling of the winter period resulted in considerably higher uncertainties compared to the application of gap-filling during the measurement period. The annual patterns of the overall cumulative fluxes for the quantified VOCs showed a completely different behavior in 2009, which was an exceptional year due to the occurrence of a severe hailstorm, compared to 2011. Methanol was the compound which contributed with 381.5 mg C m–2 and 449.9 mg C m–2 most to the cumulative VOC carbon emissions in 2009 and 2011, respectively. In contrast to methanol emissions, however, considerable amounts of monoterpenes (−327.3 mg C m–2) were deposited to the mountain meadow in consequence to the hailstorm in 2009. Other quantified VOCs had considerably lower influences on the annual patterns.

Configurations to Superior Environmental Innovation Strategy: A Both–And Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 108602662110316
Author(s):  
Tiziana Russo-Spena ◽  
Nadia Di Paola ◽  
Aidan O’Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Innovation Strategy ◽  
Environmental Innovation ◽  
Data Set

An effective climate change action involves the critical role that companies must play in assuring the long-term human and social well-being of future generations. In our study, we offer a more holistic, inclusive, both–and approach to the challenge of environmental innovation (EI) that uses a novel methodology to identify relevant configurations for firms engaging in a superior EI strategy. A conceptual framework is proposed that identifies six sets of driving characteristics of EI and two sets of beneficial outcomes, all inherently tensional. Our analysis utilizes a complementary rather than an oppositional point of view. A data set of 65 companies in the ICT value chain is analyzed via fuzzy-set comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a post-QCA procedure. The results reveal that achieving a superior EI strategy is possible in several scenarios. Specifically, after close examination, two main configuration groups emerge, referred to as technological environmental innovators and organizational environmental innovators.

scholarly journals An Integrated Investigation of Atmospheric Gaseous Elemental Mercury Transport and Dispersion Around a Chlor-Alkali Plant in the Ossola Valley (Italian Central Alps)

Toxics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Laura Fantozzi ◽  
Nicoletta Guerrieri ◽  
Giovanni Manca ◽  
Arianna Orrù ◽  
Laura Marziali
Keyword(s):  
Elemental Mercury ◽  
Background Concentration ◽  
Dispersion Pattern ◽  
Central Alps ◽  
Gaseous Elemental Mercury ◽  
Mercury Transport ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Hg Accumulation

We present the first assessment of atmospheric pollution by mercury (Hg) in an industrialized area located in the Ossola Valley (Italian Central Alps), in close proximity to the Toce River. The study area suffers from a level of Hg contamination due to a Hg cell chlor-alkali plant operating from 1915 to the end of 2017. We measured gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) levels by means of a portable Hg analyzer during car surveys between autumn 2018 and summer 2020. Moreover, we assessed the long-term dispersion pattern of atmospheric Hg by analyzing the total Hg concentration in samples of lichens collected in the Ossola Valley. High values of GEM concentrations (1112 ng m−3) up to three orders of magnitude higher than the typical terrestrial background concentration in the northern hemisphere were measured in the proximity of the chlor-alkali plant. Hg concentrations in lichens ranged from 142 ng g−1 at sampling sites located north of the chlor-alkali plant to 624 ng g−1 in lichens collected south of the chlor-alkali plant. A north-south gradient of Hg accumulation in lichens along the Ossola Valley channel was observed, highlighting that the area located south of the chlor-alkali plant is more exposed to the dispersion of Hg emitted into the atmosphere from the industrial site. Long-term studies on Hg emission and dispersion in the Ossola Valley are needed to better assess potential impact on ecosystems and human health.

EXPRESS: How Does Bonus Payment Affect the Demand for Auto Loans and Their Delinquency?

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224372110092
Author(s):  
Zhenling Jiang ◽  
Dennis J. Zhang ◽  
Tat Chan
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Products ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Consumer Panel ◽  
Loan Demand ◽  
Bonus Payments ◽  
Base Salary ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Shed Light

This paper studies how receiving a bonus changes the consumers’ demand for auto loans and the risk of future delinquency. Unlike traditional consumer products, auto loans have a long-term impact on consumers’ financial state because of the monthly payment obligation. Using a large consumer panel data set of credit and employment information, the authors find that receiving a bonus increases auto loan demand by 21 percent. These loans, however, are associated with higher risk, as the delinquency rate increases by 18.5 −31.4 percent depending on different measures. In contrast, an increase in consumers’ base salary will increase the demand for auto loans but not the delinquency. By comparing consumers with bonuses with those without bonuses, the authors find that bonus payments lead to both demand expansion and demand shifting on auto loans. The empirical findings help shed light on how consumers make financial decisions and have important implications for financial institutions on when demand for auto loans and the associated risk arise.

scholarly journals Principals between exploitation and exploration: Results of a nationwide study on ambidexterity of school leaders

2020 ◽  
pp. 174114322094570
Author(s):  
Marcus Pietsch ◽  
Pierre Tulowitzki ◽  
Colin Cramer
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Environments ◽  
Management Research ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Leadership And Management ◽  
Nationwide Study ◽  
Efficiency Control ◽  
Exploitation And Exploration ◽  
Discontinuous Innovation

Both organizational and management research suggest that schools and their leaders need to be ambidextrous to secure prosperity and long-term survival in dynamic environments characterized by competition and innovation. In this context, ambidexterity refers to the ability to simultaneously pursue exploitation and exploration and thus to deliver efficiency, control and incremental improvements while embracing flexibility, autonomy and discontinuous innovation. Using a unique, randomized and representative data set of N = 405 principals, we present findings on principals’ exploitation and exploration. The results indicate: (a) that principals engage far more often in exploitative than in explorative activities; (b) that exploitative activities in schools are executed at the expense of explorative activities; and (c) that explorative and ambidextrous activities of principals are positively associated with the (perceived) competition between schools. The study brings a novel perspective to educational research and demonstrates that applying the concept of ambidexterity has the potential to further our understanding of effective educational leadership and management.

scholarly journals Evaluating Machine Learning and Geostatistical Methods for Spatial Gap-filling of Monthly ESA CCI Soil Moisture in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2848
Author(s):  
Hao Sun ◽  
Qian Xu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gap Filling ◽  
Spatial Continuity ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Data Gaps

Obtaining large-scale, long-term, and spatial continuous soil moisture (SM) data is crucial for climate change, hydrology, and water resource management, etc. ESA CCI SM is such a large-scale and long-term SM (longer than 40 years until now). However, there exist data gaps, especially for the area of China, due to the limitations in remote sensing of SM such as complex topography, human-induced radio frequency interference (RFI), and vegetation disturbances, etc. The data gaps make the CCI SM data cannot achieve spatial continuity, which entails the study of gap-filling methods. In order to develop suitable methods to fill the gaps of CCI SM in the whole area of China, we compared typical Machine Learning (ML) methods, including Random Forest method (RF), Feedforward Neural Network method (FNN), and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with a geostatistical method, i.e., Ordinary Kriging (OK) in this study. More than 30 years of passive–active combined CCI SM from 1982 to 2018 and other biophysical variables such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, air temperature, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil type, and in situ SM from International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) were utilized in this study. Results indicated that: 1) the data gap of CCI SM is frequent in China, which is found not only in cold seasons and areas but also in warm seasons and areas. The ratio of gap pixel numbers to the whole pixel numbers can be greater than 80%, and its average is around 40%. 2) ML methods can fill the gaps of CCI SM all up. Among the ML methods, RF had the best performance in fitting the relationship between CCI SM and biophysical variables. 3) Over simulated gap areas, RF had a comparable performance with OK, and they outperformed the FNN and GLM methods greatly. 4) Over in situ SM networks, RF achieved better performance than the OK method. 5) We also explored various strategies for gap-filling CCI SM. Results demonstrated that the strategy of constructing a monthly model with one RF for simulating monthly average SM and another RF for simulating monthly SM disturbance achieved the best performance. Such strategy combining with the ML method such as the RF is suggested in this study for filling the gaps of CCI SM in China.

Off-pump direct hepatic veins-to-hemiazygos vein anastomosis after primary Kawashima operation: long-term result

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Renate Kaulitz ◽  
Gerhard Ziemer ◽  
Michael Hofbeck
Keyword(s):  
Venous Blood ◽  
Venous Drainage ◽  
Hepatic Veins ◽  
Off Pump ◽  
Hemiazygos Vein ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Hepatic Venous Blood ◽  
Balanced Distribution ◽  
Long Term Result

Abstract Direct hepatic veins-to-hemiazygos connection offers the balanced distribution of hepatic venous blood to both lungs, not requiring anticoagulation. We report a 13-year follow-up after this type of off-pump Fontan completion. Patient’s hepatic veins-to-hemiazygos confluence increased with growth to allow for unobstructed flow. This unique technique can be recommended in heterotaxy patients, if atrial hepatic venous drainage and hemiazygos vein are in close proximity.

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