scholarly journals Climatic variation in Africa and Europe has combined effects on timing of spring migration in a long-distance migrant Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e8770
Author(s):  
Magdalena Remisiewicz ◽  
Les G. Underhill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spring Migration ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Willow Warbler ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Sea Coast

Background The arrival of many species of migrant passerine in the European spring has shifted earlier over recent decades, attributed to climate change and rising temperatures in Europe and west Africa. Few studies have shown the effects of climate change in both hemispheres though many long-distance migrants use wintering grounds which span Africa. The migrants’ arrival in Europe thus potentially reflects a combination of the conditions they experience across Africa. We examine if the timing of spring migration of a long-distance migrant, the Willow Warbler, is related to large-scale climate indices across Africa and Europe. Methods Using data from daily mistnetting from 1 April to 15 May in 1982–2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we developed an Annual Anomaly metric (AA, in days) to estimate how early or late Willow Warblers arrive each spring in relation to their multi-year average pattern. The Willow Warblers’ spring passage advanced by 5.4 days over the 36 years. We modelled AA using 14 potential explanatory variables in multiple regression models. The variables were the calendar year and 13 large-scale indices of climate in Africa and Europe averaged over biologically meaningful periods of two to four months during the year before spring migration. Results The best model explained 59% of the variation in AA with seven variables: Northern Atlantic Oscillation (two periods), Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index, Sahel Precipitation Anomaly, Scandinavian Index and local mean temperatures. The study also confirmed that a long-term trend for Willow Warblers to arrive earlier in spring continued up to 2017. Discussion Our results suggest that the timing of Willow Warbler spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast is related to a summation of the ecological conditions they had encountered over the previous year during breeding, migration south, wintering in Africa and migration north. We suggest these large-scale climate indices reflect ecological drivers for phenological changes in species with complex migration patterns and discuss the ways in which each of the seven climate indices could be related to spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast.

Past, current, and future freshwater inflows to the Baltic Sea under changing climate and socioeconomics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alena Bartosova ◽  
René Capell ◽  
Jørgen E. Olesen ◽  
Berit Arheimer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Nitrogen Loads ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Freshwater Inflows

<p>The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea. These freshwater inflows vary in magnitude from year to year as well as within each year due to e.g. natural variability, weather patterns, and seasonal human activities. Nutrient transport models are important tools for assessments of macro-nutrient fluxes (nitrogen, phosphorus) and for evaluating the connection between pollution sources and the assessed water body. While understanding of current status is important, impacts from changing climate and socio-economics on freshwater inflows to the Baltic Sea also need to be taken into account when planning management practices and mitigation measures.</p><p>Continental to global scale catchment-based hydrological models have emerged in recent years as tools e.g. for flood forecasting, large-scale climate impact analyses, and estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. Here, we present results from the pan-European rainfall-runoff and nutrient transfer model E-HYPE, developed as a multi-purpose tool for large-scale hydrological analyses. We compared current freshwater inflows from land with those from dynamic modelling with E-HYPE under various climate and socioeconomic conditions. The socioeconomic conditions (land use, agricultural practices, population changes, dietary changes, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater technologies) were evaluated for 3 additional time horizons: 2050s using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 1900s using historical data, and a reference period using a synthetic “no human impact” scenario. An ensemble of 4 climate models that preserves the range of projected changes in precipitation and temperature from a larger ensemble was selected for analysis of climate impacts in 2050s.  </p><p>We show that while climate change affects nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, these impacts can be overshadowed by the impacts of changing socioeconomic factors. Historical nitrogen loads were estimated as 43% and 33% of the current loads for the 1900s and the “no human impact” scenarios, respectively. Average nitrogen loads are projected to increase by 4-10% (8% on average) as a response to climate change by 2050s. Purely mitigation measures that did not address the magnitude of the nutrient sources reduced the total nitrogen load by <5%, with local efficiencies being reduced through retention processes. However, changes in the socioeconomic drivers led to significant changes in the future loads with the range of impacts spanning 30% of the current load depending on the socioeconomic pathway to be followed. This means that policy decisions have by far the largest impact when managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.</p><p>Bartosova, A., Capell, R., Olesen, J.E. et al. (2019). Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Ambio 48, 1325–1336 doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5</p>

scholarly journals Deficiency syndromes in top predators associated with large-scale changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. e0227714 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanna Majaneva ◽  
Emil Fridolfsson ◽  
Michele Casini ◽  
Catherine Legrand ◽  
Elin Lindehoff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Top Predators ◽  
The Baltic

scholarly journals Parallel speciation or long-distance dispersal? Lessons from seaweeds (Fucus ) in the Baltic Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1727-1737 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Pereyra ◽  
C. Huenchuñir ◽  
D. Johansson ◽  
H. Forslund ◽  
L. Kautsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Long Distance Dispersal ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
The Baltic

Organohalogens of Natural and Industrial Origin in Large Recipients of Bleach-Plant Effluents

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 373-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grimvall ◽  
H. Borén ◽  
S. Jonsson ◽  
S. Karlsson ◽  
R. Sävenhed
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Long Distance Transport ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Receiving Waters ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Organic Halogens

The long-term fate of chlorophenols and adsorbable organic halogens (AOX) was studied in two large recipients of bleach-plant effluents: Lake Vättern in Sweden and the Baltic Sea. The study showed that there is a long-distance transport (>100 km) of chloroguaiacols from bleach-plants to remote parts of receiving waters. However, there was no evidence of several-year-long accumulation of chloro-organics in the water-phase. A simple water-exchange model for Lake Vättern showed that the cumulated bleach-plant discharges from the past 35 years would have increased the AOX concentration in the lake by more than 100 µg Cl/l, if no AOX had been removed from the water by evaporation, sedimentation or degradation. However, the observed AOX concentration in Lake Vättern averaged only about 15 µg Cl/l, which was less than the average AOX concentration (32 µg Cl/l) in the “unpolluted” tributaries of the lake. Similar investigations in the Baltic Sea showed that non-point sources, including natural halogenation processes, accounted for a substantial fraction of the AOX in the open sea. The presence of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol in precipitation and “unpolluted” surface waters showed that non-point sources may also make a considerable contribution to the background levels of compounds normally regarded as indicators of bleach-plant effluents.

scholarly journals Effect of ocean acidification and elevated <i>f</i>CO<sub>2</sub> on trace gas production by a Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 4595-4613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison L. Webb ◽  
Emma Leedham-Elvidge ◽  
Claire Hughes ◽  
Frances E. Hopkins ◽  
Gill Malin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Research Station ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Chl A ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Upwelling Event ◽  
Ambient Co2

Abstract. The Baltic Sea is a unique environment as the largest body of brackish water in the world. Acidification of the surface oceans due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is an additional stressor facing the pelagic community of the already challenging Baltic Sea. To investigate its impact on trace gas biogeochemistry, a large-scale mesocosm experiment was performed off Tvärminne Research Station, Finland, in summer 2012. During the second half of the experiment, dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations in the highest-fCO2 mesocosms (1075–1333 µatm) were 34 % lower than at ambient CO2 (350 µatm). However, the net production (as measured by concentration change) of seven halocarbons analysed was not significantly affected by even the highest CO2 levels after 5 weeks' exposure. Methyl iodide (CH3I) and diiodomethane (CH2I2) showed 15 and 57 % increases in mean mesocosm concentration (3.8 ± 0.6 increasing to 4.3 ± 0.4 pmol L−1 and 87.4 ± 14.9 increasing to 134.4 ± 24.1 pmol L−1 respectively) during Phase II of the experiment, which were unrelated to CO2 and corresponded to 30 % lower Chl a concentrations compared to Phase I. No other iodocarbons increased or showed a peak, with mean chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) concentrations measured at 5.3 (±0.9) pmol L−1 and iodoethane (C2H5I) at 0.5 (±0.1) pmol L−1. Of the concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3; mean 88.1 ± 13.2 pmol L−1), dibromomethane (CH2Br2; mean 5.3 ± 0.8 pmol L−1), and dibromochloromethane (CHBr2Cl, mean 3.0 ± 0.5 pmol L−1), only CH2Br2 showed a decrease of 17 % between Phases I and II, with CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl showing similar mean concentrations in both phases. Outside the mesocosms, an upwelling event was responsible for bringing colder, high-CO2, low-pH water to the surface starting on day t16 of the experiment; this variable CO2 system with frequent upwelling events implies that the community of the Baltic Sea is acclimated to regular significant declines in pH caused by up to 800 µatm fCO2. After this upwelling, DMS concentrations declined, but halocarbon concentrations remained similar or increased compared to measurements prior to the change in conditions. Based on our findings, with future acidification of Baltic Sea waters, biogenic halocarbon emissions are likely to remain at similar values to today; however, emissions of biogenic sulfur could significantly decrease in this region.

scholarly journals Coupled regional Earth system modelling in the Baltic Sea region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Jari Haapala ◽  
Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann ◽  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Non-linear responses to externally forced climate change are known to dampen or amplify the local climate impact due to complex cross compartmental feedback loops in the earth system. These feedbacks are less well represented in traditional standalone atmosphere and ocean models on which many of today's regional climate assessments rely on (e.g. EuroCordex, NOSCCA, BACC II). This promotes the development of regional climate models for the Baltic Sea region by coupling different compartments of the earth system into more comprehensive models. Coupled models more realistically represent feedback loops than the information imposed into the region by using prescribed boundary conditions, and thus, permit a higher degree of freedom. In the past, several coupled model systems have been developed for Europe and the Baltic Sea region. This article reviews recent progress of model systems that allow two way communication between atmosphere and ocean models, models for the land surface including the terrestrial biosphere, as well as wave models at the air sea interface and hydrology models for water cycle closure. However, several processes that have so far mostly been realized by one way coupling such as marine biogeochemistry, nutrient cycling and atmospheric chemistry (e.g. aerosols) are not considered here.Compared to uncoupled standalone models, coupled earth system models models can modify mean near surface air temperatures locally up to several degrees compared to their standalone atmospheric counterparts using prescribed surface boundary conditions. Over open ocean areas, the representation of small scale oceanic processes such as vertical mixing, and sea ice dynamics appear essential to accurately resolve the air sea heat exchange in the Baltic Sea region and can only be provided by online coupled high resolution ocean models. In addition, the coupling of wave models at the ocean-atmosphere interface allows a more explicit formulation of small-scale to microphysical processes with local feedbacks to water temperature and large scale processes such as oceanic upwelling. Over land, important climate feedbacks arise from dynamical terrestrial vegetation changes as well as the implementation of land use scenarios and afforestation/deforestation that further alter surface albedo, roughness length and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, a good representation of surface temperatures and roughness length over open sea and land areas is critical for the representation of climatic extremes like e.g. heavy precipitation, storms, or tropical nights, and appear to be sensitive to coupling.For the present-day climate, many coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land surface models demonstrate added value with respect to single climate variables in particular when low quality boundary data were used in the respective standalone model. This makes coupled models a prospective tool for downscaling climate change scenarios from global climate models because these models often have large biases on the regional scale. However, the coupling of hydrology models for closing the water cycle remains problematic as the accuracy of precipitation provided by the atmosphere models is in most cases insufficient to realistically simulate the runoff to the Baltic Sea without bias adjustments.Many regional standalone ocean and atmosphere models are tuned to well represent present day climatologies rather than accurately simulate climate change. More research is necessary about how the regional climate sensitivity (e.g. the models’ response to a given change in global mean temperature) is affected by coupling and how the spread is altered in multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles of coupled models compared to uncoupled ones.

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