scholarly journals What affects power to estimate speciation rate shifts?

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullasa Kodandaramaiah ◽  
Gopal Murali
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Character State ◽  
Small Power ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Relative Age ◽  
Rate Shift ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Bias Ratio ◽  
Speciation Rates

The development of methods to estimate rates of speciation and extinction from time-calibrated phylogenies has revolutionized evolutionary biology by allowing researchers to correlate diversification rate shifts with causal factors. A growing number of researchers are interested in testing whether the evolution of a trait or a trait variant has influenced speciation rate, and three modelling methods—BiSSE, MEDUSA and BAMM—have been widely used in such studies. We simulated phylogenies with a single speciation rate shift each, and evaluated the power of the three methods to detect these shifts. We varied the degree of increase in speciation rate (speciation rate asymmetry), the number of tips, the tip-ratio bias (ratio of number of tips with each character state) and the relative age in relation to overall tree age when the rate shift occurred. All methods had good power to detect rate shifts when the rate asymmetry was strong and the sizes of the two lineages with the distinct speciation rates were large. Even when lineage size was small, power was good when rate asymmetry was high. In our simulated scenarios, small lineage sizes appear to affect BAMM most strongly. Tip-ratio influenced the accuracy of speciation rate estimation but did not have a strong effect on power to detect rate shifts. Based on our results, we provide suggestions to users of these methods.

scholarly journals What affects power to estimate speciation rate shifts?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullasa Kodandaramaiah ◽  
Gopal Murali
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Character State ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Relative Age ◽  
Rate Shift ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Bias Ratio ◽  
Speciation Rates

The development of methods to estimate rates of speciation and extinction from time- calibrated phylogenies has revolutionized evolutionary biology by allowing researchers to correlate diversification rate shifts with causal ecological factors. A growing number of researchers are interested in testing whether the evolution of a trait or a trait variant has influenced speciation rates, and three modelling methods – BiSSE, MEDUSA and BAMM – have been widely used in such studies. We simulated phylogenies with a single speciation rate shift each, and evaluated the power of the three methods to detect these shifts. We varied the degree of increase in speciation rate (rate asymmetry), the number of tips, the tip-ratio bias (ratio of number of tips with each character state) and the relative age in relation to overall tree age when the rate shift occurred. All methods had good power to detect rate shifts when the rate asymmetry was strong and the sizes of the two lineages with the distinct speciation rates were large. Even when lineage size was small, power was good when rate asymmetry was high. In our simulated scenarios, small lineage sizes appear to affect BAMM most strongly. Tip-ratio influenced the accuracy of speciation rate estimation but did not have a strong effect on power to detect rate shifts. Based on our results, we provide some suggestions to users of these methods.

scholarly journals What affects power to estimate speciation rate shifts?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullasa Kodandaramaiah ◽  
Gopal Murali
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Character State ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Relative Age ◽  
Rate Shift ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Bias Ratio ◽  
Speciation Rates

The development of methods to estimate rates of speciation and extinction from time- calibrated phylogenies has revolutionized evolutionary biology by allowing researchers to correlate diversification rate shifts with causal ecological factors. A growing number of researchers are interested in testing whether the evolution of a trait or a trait variant has influenced speciation rates, and three modelling methods – BiSSE, MEDUSA and BAMM – have been widely used in such studies. We simulated phylogenies with a single speciation rate shift each, and evaluated the power of the three methods to detect these shifts. We varied the degree of increase in speciation rate (rate asymmetry), the number of tips, the tip-ratio bias (ratio of number of tips with each character state) and the relative age in relation to overall tree age when the rate shift occurred. All methods had good power to detect rate shifts when the rate asymmetry was strong and the sizes of the two lineages with the distinct speciation rates were large. Even when lineage size was small, power was good when rate asymmetry was high. In our simulated scenarios, small lineage sizes appear to affect BAMM most strongly. Tip-ratio influenced the accuracy of speciation rate estimation but did not have a strong effect on power to detect rate shifts. Based on our results, we provide some suggestions to users of these methods.

scholarly journals Tree size and relative clade age influence estimation of speciation rate shifts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullasa Kodandaramaiah ◽  
Gopal Murali
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Diversification Rate ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Rate Shift ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
Speciation Rates ◽  
Estimate Rate ◽  
Type Ii Errors

The development of methods to estimate rates of speciation and extinction from time-calibrated phylogenies has revolutionized evolutionary biology by allowing researchers to correlate diversification rate shifts with causal ecological factors. We use rigorous simulations to evaluate the statistical performance of three widely used modelling approaches - BiSSE, BAMM and MEDUSA - in relation to detection of speciation rates shifts. We simulated sets of trees with each tree having a single increase in speciation rate. We varied the location of shifts, the degree of increase in speciation rate and the total age of the tree. We then used BiSSE, BAMM and MEDUSA to estimate rate shifts. For BiSSE, we assigned different character states for the lineages with different simulated speciation rates. We show that all methods are better at detecting rate shifts when the change in speciation rate is higher, but had high Type II errors (non-detection of rate shifts). While the algorithms more accurately identified rate shifts close to the root of the tree, both perform poorly when the rate shift occurred more recently. All methods performed better with increase in the overall number of tips and the number of tips in the clade with rate shift, both of which are correlated with tree age and speciation rate asymmetry. We discuss the implications of this study for the use and development of methods for hypothesis testing based on diversification rate shifts.

scholarly journals A Darwinian Uncertainty Principle

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gascuel ◽  
Mike Steel
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Principle ◽  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Biochemical Properties ◽  
Simultaneous Estimation ◽  
Character State ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Region Of Origin ◽  
Large Classes ◽  
State Changes ◽  
Patterns And Processes

Abstract Reconstructing ancestral characters and traits along a phylogenetic tree is central to evolutionary biology. It is the key to understanding morphology changes among species, inferring ancestral biochemical properties of life, or recovering migration routes in phylogeography. The goal is 2-fold: to reconstruct the character state at the tree root (e.g., the region of origin of some species) and to understand the process of state changes along the tree (e.g., species flow between countries). We deal here with discrete characters, which are “unique,” as opposed to sequence characters (nucleotides or amino-acids), where we assume the same model for all the characters (or for large classes of characters with site-dependent models) and thus benefit from multiple information sources. In this framework, we use mathematics and simulations to demonstrate that although each goal can be achieved with high accuracy individually, it is generally impossible to accurately estimate both the root state and the rates of state changes along the tree branches, from the observed data at the tips of the tree. This is because the global rates of state changes along the branches that are optimal for the two estimation tasks have opposite trends, leading to a fundamental trade-off in accuracy. This inherent “Darwinian uncertainty principle” concerning the simultaneous estimation of “patterns” and “processes” governs ancestral reconstructions in biology. For certain tree shapes (typically speciation trees) the uncertainty of simultaneous estimation is reduced when more tips are present; however, for other tree shapes it does not (e.g., coalescent trees used in population genetics).

scholarly journals Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (41) ◽  
pp. 20584-20590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien L. Condamine ◽  
Jules Romieu ◽  
Guillaume Guinot
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Apex Predators ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Extant Species ◽  
Speciation Rates ◽  
Sister Relationships ◽  
Abiotic And Biotic Factors ◽  
Climate Cooling

Understanding heterogeneity in species richness between closely related clades is a key research question in ecology and evolutionary biology. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to interpret such diversity contrasts across the tree of life, with most studies focusing on speciation rates to explain clades’ evolutionary radiations, while often neglecting extinction rates. Here we study a notorious biological model as exemplified by the sister relationships between mackerel sharks (Lamniformes, 15 extant species) and ground sharks (Carcharhiniformes, ∼290 extant species). Using a comprehensive fossil dataset, we found that the diversity dynamics of lamniforms waxed and waned following repeated cycles of radiation phases and declining phases. Radiation phases peaked up to 3 times the current diversity in the early Late Cretaceous. In the last 20 million years, the group declined to its present-day diversity. Along with a higher extinction risk for young species, we further show that this declining pattern is likely attributed to a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, with a cooling-driven extinction (negative correlation between temperature and extinction) and clade competition with some ground sharks. Competition from multiple clades successively drove the demise and replacement of mackerel sharks due to a failure to originate facing the rise of ground sharks, particularly since the Eocene. These effects came from ecologically similar carcharhiniform species inhibiting diversification of medium- and large-sized lamniforms. These results imply that the interplay between abiotic and biotic drivers had a substantial role in extinction and speciation, respectively, which determines the sequential rise and decline of marine apex predators.

Quantifying morphological change during an evolutionary radiation of Devonian trilobites

Paleobiology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francine R. Abe ◽  
Bruce S. Lieberman
Keyword(s):  
Morphological Change ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Character State ◽  
Geometric Morphometric ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Ancestral Character State ◽  
Speciation Rates ◽  
Adaptive Radiations ◽  
Geometric Morphometric Analysis ◽  
Heterogeneous Region

The fossil record provides an important source of data on adaptive radiations, and indeed some of the earliest theoretical insights on the nature of these radiations were made by paleontologists. Here we focus on the diverse DevonianMetacryphaeusgroup calmoniid trilobites, known from the Malvinokaffric Realm, which have been considered a classic example of an adaptive radiation preserved in the fossil record. We use a geometric morphometric analysis in conjunction with phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns and data on speciation rates. Using ancestral character state reconstruction during speciation events, we quantify patterns of morphological change in order to assess the role ecological and geographical factors may have played in mediating this radiation. We found no significant differences between the amount of morphological change that occurred during speciation events when ancestors and descendants were in the same area as opposed to when they occupied different areas. Further, the magnitude of morphological divergence did not change through time or with cladogenetic rank. These patterns, in conjunction with the fact that the radiation occurs in a geographically heterogeneous region subjected to repeated episodes of sea-level rise and fall, suggest that at the macroevolutionary scale this radiation may have been motivated more by phenomena that facilitated geographic isolation than by competition.

scholarly journals Positive association between population genetic differentiation and speciation rates in New World birds

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (24) ◽  
pp. 6328-6333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Harvey ◽  
Glenn F. Seeholzer ◽  
Brian Tilston Smith ◽  
Daniel L. Rabosky ◽  
Andrés M. Cuervo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Differentiation ◽  
New World ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Implicit Assumption ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Population Genetic Differentiation ◽  
Evolutionary Diversification ◽  
Speciation Rates

An implicit assumption of speciation biology is that population differentiation is an important stage of evolutionary diversification, but its significance as a rate-limiting control on phylogenetic speciation dynamics remains largely untested. If population differentiation within a species is related to its speciation rate over evolutionary time, the causes of differentiation could also be driving dynamics of organismal diversity across time and space. Alternatively, geographic variants might be short-lived entities with rates of formation that are unlinked to speciation rates, in which case the causes of differentiation would have only ephemeral impacts. By pairing population genetics datasets from 173 New World bird species (>17,000 individuals) with phylogenetic estimates of speciation rate, we show that the population differentiation rates within species are positively correlated with their speciation rates over long timescales. Although population differentiation rate explains relatively little of the variation in speciation rate among lineages, the positive relationship between differentiation rate and speciation rate is robust to species-delimitation schemes and to alternative measures of both rates. Population differentiation occurs at least three times faster than speciation, which suggests that most populations are ephemeral. Speciation and population differentiation rates are more tightly linked in tropical species than in temperate species, consistent with a history of more stable diversification dynamics through time in the Tropics. Overall, our results suggest that the processes responsible for population differentiation are tied to those that underlie broad-scale patterns of diversity.

scholarly journals The Modulation of DNA Content: Proximate Causes and Ultimate Consequences

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Ryan Gregory ◽  
Paul D.N. Hebert
Keyword(s):  
Genome Size ◽  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Nucleotide Composition ◽  
Character State ◽  
Selfish Dna ◽  
Evolutionary Origins ◽  
Chromosomal Architecture ◽  
Somatic Genome ◽  
Abrupt Shifts

The forces responsible for modulating the large-scale features of the genome remain one of the most difficult issues confronting evolutionary biology. Although diversity in chromosomal architecture, nucleotide composition, and genome size has been well documented, there is little understanding of either the evolutionary origins or impact of much of this variation. The 80,000-fold divergence in genome sizes among eukaryotes represents perhaps the greatest challenge for genomic holists. Although some researchers continue to characterize much variation in genome size as a mere by-product of an intragenomic selfish DNA “free-for-all” there is increasing evidence for the primacy of selection in molding genome sizes via impacts on cell size and division rates. Moreover, processes inducing quantum or doubling series variation in gametic or somatic genome sizes are common. These abrupt shifts have broad effects on phenotypic attributes at both cellular and organismal levels and may play an important role in explaining episodes of rapid—or even saltational—character state evolution.

Probabilistic Phylogenetic Inference in the Fossil Record: Current and Future Applications

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 189-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Wagner ◽  
Jonathan D. Marcot
Keyword(s):  
Morphological Change ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Phylogenetic Inference ◽  
Nuisance Parameters ◽  
Character State ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Sampling Intensity ◽  
Future Goals ◽  
Speciation Rates ◽  
Over Time

Quantitative phylogenetic inference estimates the probability of observed character distributions given trees and rates. Most available programs for doing this assume (tacitly or explicitly) that the sampled taxa are contemporaneous. However, paleontologists usually sample taxa over a clade's history. Thus, we must estimate the probability of observed character-state distributions over time given trees and rates. When we include information about sampling intensity, then we really are estimating the probability of the observed record given trees and rates. Some additional problems that should be issues for neontologists, but which are much more obvious concerns for paleontologists include: 1) ancestor-descendant relationships; 2) punctuated versus continuous morphological change; and, 3) the effects of extinction and speciation rates on prior probabilities of trees. Future goals of paleosystematists include incorporating these and other “nuisance” parameters so that, ultimately, our tests of phylogeny are really tests of evolutionary histories.

scholarly journals Morphological innovation, diversification and invasion of a new adaptive zone

2011 ◽  
Vol 279 (1734) ◽  
pp. 1797-1805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. Dumont ◽  
Liliana M. Dávalos ◽  
Aaron Goldberg ◽  
Sharlene E. Santana ◽  
Katja Rex ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
Mechanical Efficiency ◽  
Recent Common Ancestor ◽  
Skull Morphology ◽  
Ecological Opportunity ◽  
Speciation Rate ◽  
Most Recent Common Ancestor ◽  
Morphological Innovation ◽  
Adaptive Zone

How ecological opportunity relates to diversification is a central question in evolutionary biology. However, there are few empirical examples of how ecological opportunity and morphological innovation open new adaptive zones, and promote diversification. We analyse data on diet, skull morphology and bite performance, and relate these traits to diversification rates throughout the evolutionary history of an ecologically diverse family of mammals (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae). We found a significant increase in diversification rate driven by increased speciation at the most recent common ancestor of the predominantly frugivorous subfamily Stenodermatinae. The evolution of diet was associated with skull morphology, and morphology was tightly coupled with biting performance, linking phenotype to new niches through performance. Following the increase in speciation rate, the rate of morphological evolution slowed, while the rate of evolution in diet increased. This pattern suggests that morphology stabilized, and niches within the new adaptive zone of frugivory were filled rapidly, after the evolution of a new cranial phenotype that resulted in a certain level of mechanical efficiency. The tree-wide speciation rate increased non linearly with a more frugivorous diet, and was highest at measures of skull morphology associated with morphological extremes, including the most derived Stenodermatines. These results show that a novel stenodermatine skull phenotype played a central role in the evolution of frugivory and increasing speciation within phyllostomids.

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