scholarly journals Are extinction opinions extinct?

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin E. Lee ◽  
Clive Bowman ◽  
David L. Roberts

Extinction models vary in the information they require, the simplest considering the rate of certain sightings only. More complicated methods include uncertain sightings and allow for variation in the reliability of uncertain sightings. Generally extinction models require expert opinion, either as a prior belief that a species is extinct, or to establish the quality of a sighting record, or both. Is this subjectivity necessary? We present two models to explore whether the individual quality of sightings, judged by experts, is strongly informative of the probability of extinction: the ‘quality breakpoint method’ and the ‘quality as variance method’. For the first method we use the Barbary lion as an exemplar. For the second method we use the Barbary lion, Alaotra grebe, Jamaican petrel and Pohnpei starling as exemplars. The ‘quality breakpoint method’ uses certain and uncertain sighting records, and the quality of uncertain records, to establish whether a change point in the rate of sightings can be established using a simultaneous Bayesian optimisation with a non-informative prior. For the Barbary lion, there is a change in subjective quality of sightings around 1930. Unexpectedly sighting quality increases after this date. This suggests that including quality scores from experts can lead to irregular effects and may not offer reliable results. As an alternative, we use quality as a measure of variance around the sightings, not a change in quality. This leads to predictions with larger standard deviations, however the results remain consistent across any prior belief of extinction. Nonetheless, replacing actual quality scores with random quality scores showed little difference, inferring that the quality scores from experts are superfluous. Therefore, we deem the expensive process of obtaining pooled expert estimates as unnecessary, and even when used we recommend that sighting data should have minimal input from experts in terms of assessing the sighting quality at a fine scale. Rather, sightings should be classed as certain or uncertain, using a framework that is as independent of human bias as possible.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin E Lee ◽  
Clive Bowman ◽  
David L Roberts

Extinction models vary in the information they require, the simplest considering the rate of certain sightings only. More complicated methods include uncertain sightings and allow for variation in the reliability of uncertain sightings. Generally extinction models require expert opinion, either as a prior belief that a species is extinct, or to establish the quality of a sighting record, or both. Is this subjectivity necessary? We present two models to explore whether the individual quality of sightings, judged by experts, is strongly informative of the probability of extinction: the `quality breakpoint method' and the `quality as variance method'. For the first method we use the Barbary lion as an exemplar. For the second method we use the Barbary lion, Alaotra grebe, Jamaican petrel and Pohnpei starling as exemplars. The `quality breakpoint method' uses certain and uncertain sighting records, and the quality of uncertain records, to establish whether a change point in the rate of sightings can be established using a simultaneous Bayesian optimisation with a non-informative prior. For the Barbary lion, there is a change in subjective quality of sightings around 1930. Unexpectedly sighting quality increases after this date. This suggests that including quality scores from experts can lead to irregular effects and may not offer reliable results. As an alternative, we use quality as a measure of variance around the sightings, not a change in quality. This leads to predictions with larger standard deviations, however the results remain consistent across any prior belief of extinction. Nonetheless, replacing actual quality scores with random quality scores showed little difference, inferring that the quality scores from experts are superfluous. Therefore, we deem the expensive process of obtaining pooled expert estimates as unnecessary and even when used we recommend that sighting data should have minimal input from experts in terms of assessing the sighting quality at a fine scale. Rather, sightings should be classed as certain or uncertain, using a framework that is as independent of human bias as possible.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin E Lee ◽  
Clive Bowman ◽  
David L Roberts

Extinction models vary in the information they require, the simplest considering the rate of certain sightings only. More complicated methods include uncertain sightings and allow for variation in the reliability of uncertain sightings. Generally extinction models require expert opinion, either as a prior belief that a species is extinct, or to establish the quality of a sighting record, or both. Is this subjectivity necessary? We present two models to explore whether the individual quality of sightings, judged by experts, is strongly informative of the probability of extinction: the `quality breakpoint method' and the `quality as variance method'. For the first method we use the Barbary lion as an exemplar. For the second method we use the Barbary lion, Alaotra grebe, Jamaican petrel and Pohnpei starling as exemplars. The `quality breakpoint method' uses certain and uncertain sighting records, and the quality of uncertain records, to establish whether a change point in the rate of sightings can be established using a simultaneous Bayesian optimisation with a non-informative prior. For the Barbary lion, there is a change in subjective quality of sightings around 1930. Unexpectedly sighting quality increases after this date. This suggests that including quality scores from experts can lead to irregular effects and may not offer reliable results. As an alternative, we use quality as a measure of variance around the sightings, not a change in quality. This leads to predictions with larger standard deviations, however the results remain consistent across any prior belief of extinction. Nonetheless, replacing actual quality scores with random quality scores showed little difference, inferring that the quality scores from experts are superfluous. Therefore, we deem the expensive process of obtaining pooled expert estimates as unnecessary and even when used we recommend that sighting data should have minimal input from experts in terms of assessing the sighting quality at a fine scale. Rather, sightings should be classed as certain or uncertain, using a framework that is as independent of human bias as possible.


Pflege ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virpi Hantikainen ◽  
Konrad Koller ◽  
Diana Grywa ◽  
Jaana Niemi ◽  
Maritta Välimäki

Das Ziel dieser Studie war es, die individuelle Lebensqualität von schizophrenen Menschen in Wohnheimen zu untersuchen. Befragt wurden BewohnerInnen (N = 40) von sieben Wohnheimen mit der Diagnose Schizophrenie. Die Untersuchungspersonen wurden mit dem Schedule for the Evaluation of Individual Quality of Life: A Direct Weighting Procedure Instrument (SEIQoL-DW) interviewt. Die Befragten hatten die Möglichkeit, die individuellen Lebensqualitätsdimensionen selbst zu definieren, sowie deren Bedeutung und Wichtigkeit mittels Visueller-Analog-Skala (VAS 0-100) zu beurteilen. Der durchschnittliche Lebensqualitätswert lag bei 64,71 (Standardabweichung 19,05, Min. 6,81, Max 93,49). Von den 200 individuell genannten LQ-Bereichen konnten 18 Gruppen gebildet werden, von denen «Beziehung», «Soziales Leben», «Arbeit/Beschäftigung», «Freizeit/Beschäftigung», «finanzielle/materielle Wünsche», «Wohnen», «Autonomie» und «Gesundheit» am häufigsten vorkamen. Die Studie zeigt weiter auf, dass eine längere Aufenthaltsdauer im Heim einen höheren Lebensqualitätswert ergab. Die BewohnerInnen mit einer längeren Aufenthaltsdauer im Heim beurteilen die Bereiche «Autonomie», «Arbeitssituation» und «Sinnfindung» besser als Personen mit kürzeren Heimaufenthaltsdauern. Es zeigte sich klar, dass LQ-Bereiche für jeden Heimbewohner in seiner aktuellen Situation eine individuelle Bedeutung haben und dass auch die Zufriedenheit und Gewichtung der verschiedenen Bereiche individuell beurteilt wurden. Die befragten Personen konnten auf reliable und valide Weise ihre Lebensqualität einschätzen. Sie fühlten sich ernst genommen und zeigten großes Interesse, ihre Lebensqualität selbst beurteilen zu können. Diese Studie zeigte auch, dass das Instrument eine therapeutische Bedeutung für psychisch behinderte Menschen haben könnte.


2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
P C Stone ◽  
R F Murphy ◽  
H E Matar ◽  
M Q Almerie

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Wajdzik ◽  

The objective of the present work was to evaluate the individual quality of male European roe deer by statistical analysis of antler traits, craniometric characters, and age of hunter-harvested bucks. Those measurements enabled a reliable assessment of antler quality, changes in carcass weight with age and between hunting seasons, as well as phenotypic traits depending on habitat (percentage forest cover, geographic mesoregion). The work also aimed to assess the effectiveness of deer population management in the Cracow Region of the Polish Hunting Association and determine the potential of that population based on analysis of medal-quality roebucks harvested there over the past 10 years. The study involved data concerning roe deer in the 60 hunting districts comprising the Cracow Region for the 2008/2009-2017/2018 hunting seasons. The study material consisted of data concerning antlers from 8132 roebucks taken over that decade, such as the age of hunted roebucks, hunting district, hunt date, carcass weight, as well as the gross weight and form of antlers. A detailed evaluation of antler quality was conducted using records for 2874 individuals, including 284 medal-quality antlers, harvested in the 2014/2015-2016/2017 seasons. The trophies were evaluated in accordance with the criteria of the International Council for Game and Wildlife Conservation (CIC) and were subjected to craniometric analysis. For a comprehensive examination of roe deer quality in the Cracow Region, the study analyzed gamekeeping data, that is, annual hunting plans of the Polish Hunting Association, for the period 2008/2009-2017/2018. Several gamekeeping indicators were calculated based on those data to evaluate the effects of roe deer management and gamekeeping practices. The studied antler traits (mean beam length, antler weight and volume, CIC scores) as well as carcass weight culminated in 6-year-old individuals. In turn cra-niometric traits (skull length and width) increased significantly until the 4th year of life, while the width of pedicles increased throughout the life of the individual. The development of antlers over time was characterized by a declining rate of growth for all the analyzed parameters. The highest growth rate (more than 100%) was found between the second and third years of life in terms of antler weight and volume, as well as front tine length. Antler quality in terms of overall CIC scores was to the greatest extent affected by weight and volume. The combined contribution of these factors increased with age, and ranged from 63.9% in the youngest individuals to 74.6% in the oldest ones. Within the study area, the individual quality of roe deer varied depending on the forest cover and mesoregion. Roebucks with the lowest carcass and antler weight occurred in hunting districts with a forest cover exceeding 40%, while the highest values of those parameters were found in districts with 5% forest cover or less. In open-land areas, the share of medal-quality roebucks in the total number of harvested males was higher, at approx. 5%, as compared to 1.29% in the woodlands. The carcass and antler weight of roebucks taken in the Cracow Region was higher than that of roebucks harvested in western Poland, similar to the Kielce Region, and lower than that for the Lublin and Krosno Regions, which is in keeping with Bergmann's ecogeographical rule. Analysis of carcass weight throughout the hunting season showed that the most pronounced rutting activity was observed for individuals 6 years of age and older, which lost as much as 6% of their weight. Over the ten-year period of study, the roebucks harvested using a uniform set of selection criteria revealed an increase in mean carcass weight as well as antler weight and form, which indicates appropriate management of the roe deer population in the examined hunting region.


1991 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 749-759 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah M. McGee ◽  
Ciaran A. O'Boyle ◽  
Anne Hickey ◽  
Kevin O'Malley ◽  
C. R. B. Joyce

SYNOPSISCurrent methods of measuring quality of life (QoL) impose an external value system on individuals, rather than allowing them to describe their lives in terms of those factors which they consider important. The Schedule for the Evaluation of Individual Quality of Life (SEIQoL) was developed to overcome such limitations. The QoL of 42 healthy attenders at an international immunization clinic was assessed using SEIQoL. Judgement reliability was high (r = 0·74) and individuals' judgement policies accounted for a large percentage of the variance in overall QoL (R2 = 0·75) demonstrating the construct validity of judgement analysis in this context.In a second study of QoL of out-patients suffering from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) (N = 20) or peptic ulcer disease (PUD) (N = 20) was assessed using SEIQoL. Judgement reliability was lower (r = 0·54) although statistically highly significant (P < 0·01), and the variance in overall QoL judgements explained was high (R2 = 0·74).SEIQoL is an acceptable, reliable and valid technique for measuring individual QoL that takes greater account of individual perspectives than traditional measurement approaches.


Author(s):  
Marek Wajdzik ◽  
◽  
Karol Hink ◽  
Katarzyna Szyjka ◽  
Paweł Nasiadka ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
B. Carragher ◽  
M. Whittaker

Techniques for three-dimensional reconstruction of macromolecular complexes from electron micrographs have been successfully used for many years. These include methods which take advantage of the natural symmetry properties of the structure (for example helical or icosahedral) as well as those that use single axis or other tilting geometries to reconstruct from a set of projection images. These techniques have traditionally relied on a very experienced operator to manually perform the often numerous and time consuming steps required to obtain the final reconstruction. While the guidance and oversight of an experienced and critical operator will always be an essential component of these techniques, recent advances in computer technology, microprocessor controlled microscopes and the availability of high quality CCD cameras have provided the means to automate many of the individual steps.During the acquisition of data automation provides benefits not only in terms of convenience and time saving but also in circumstances where manual procedures limit the quality of the final reconstruction.


1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Browne ◽  
Ciaran A. O'Boyle ◽  
Hannah M. McGee ◽  
Nicholas J. McDonald ◽  
C. R. B. Joyce

2010 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-36
Author(s):  
Vaia Touna

This paper argues that the rise of what is commonly termed "personal religion" during the Classic-Hellenistic period is not the result of an inner need or even quality of the self, as often argued by those who see in ancient Greece foreshadowing of Christianity, but rather was the result of social, economic, and political conditions that made it possible for Hellenistic Greeks to redefine the perception of the individual and its relationship to others.


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