scholarly journals Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality ofSchisandra sphenantheraunder climate change

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanlong Guo ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Chunyan Lu ◽  
Bei Gao ◽  
Wei Gu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants.Schisandra sphenantheraRehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment forS. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution ofS. spenantherawere also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat ofS. sphenantheraunder all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat ofS. sphenantherawould gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas forS. sphenantherawhen the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management ofS. sphenantheraand can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

scholarly journals Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Oryx ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Shaun W. Molloy ◽  
Allan H. Burbidge ◽  
Sarah Comer ◽  
Robert A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
The Future

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

scholarly journals Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teng Long ◽  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Nicholas Pilfold ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Tingfa Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Range

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

scholarly journals Modeling the Climate Suitability of Northernmost Mangroves in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Yuyu Wang ◽  
Peng Dong ◽  
Wenjia Hu ◽  
Guangcheng Chen ◽  
Dian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Habitat Management ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Suitable Area

Mangroves are important wetland ecosystems on tropical and subtropical coasts. There is an urgent need to better understand how the spatial distribution of mangroves varies with climate change factors. Species distribution models can be used to reveal the spatial change of mangroves; however, global models typically have a horizontal resolution of hundreds of kilometers and more than 1 km, even after downscaling. In the present study, a maximum entropy model was used to predict suitable areas for the northernmost mangroves in China in the 2050s. An approach was proposed to improve the resolution and credibility of suitability predictions by incorporating land-use potential. Predictions were made based on two CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the northern edge of the natural mangrove distribution in China would migrate from 27.20° N to 27.39° N–28.15° N, and the total extent of suitable mangrove habitats would expand. By integrating 30 m resolution land-use data to refine the model’s predictions, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable habitats of mangroves are predicted to be 13,435 ha, which would increase by 33.9% compared with the current scenario. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable area would be 23,120 ha, with an increased rate of 96.5%. Approximately 40–44% of the simulated mangrove patches would be adjacent to aquacultural ponds, cultivated, and artificial land, which may restrict mangrove expansion. Collectively, our results showed how climate change and land use could influence mangrove distributions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive mangrove habitat management despite climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Can Drive a Significant Loss of Suitable Habitat for Polylepis quadrijuga, a Treeline Species in the Sky Islands of the Northern Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Caballero-Villalobos ◽  
Francisco Fajardo-Gutiérrez ◽  
Mariasole Calbi ◽  
Gustavo A. Silva-Arias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sky Islands ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

It is predicted that climate change will strongly affect plant distributions in high elevation “sky islands” of tropical Andes. Polylepis forests are a dominant element of the treeline throughout the Andes Cordillera in South America. However, little is known about the climatic factors underlying the current distribution of Polylepis trees and the possible effect of global climate change. The species Polylepis quadrijuga is endemic to the Colombian Eastern Cordillera, where it plays a fundamental ecological role in high-altitude páramo-forest ecotones. We sought to evaluate the potential distribution of P. quadrijuga under future climate change scenarios using ensemble modeling approaches. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of future climatic projections deriving from 12 different general circulation models (GCMs), four Representative Concentration Pathways (R) emissions scenarios, and two different time frames (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Additionally, based on the future projections, we evaluate the effectiveness of the National System of Protected Natural Areas of Colombia (SINAP) and Páramo Complexes of Colombia (PCC) in protecting P. quadrijuga woodlands. Here, we compiled a comprehensive set of observations of P. quadrijuga and study them in connection with climatic and topographic variables to identify environmental predictors of the species distribution, possible habitat differentiation throughout the geographic distribution of the species, and predict the effect of different climate change scenarios on the future distribution of P. quadrijuga. Our results predict a dramatic loss of suitable habitat due to climate change on this key tropical Andean treeline species. The ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM) shows differences in suitable scores among north and south regions of the species distribution consistent with differences in topographic features throughout the available habitat of P. quadrijuga. Future projections of the HSM predicted the Páramo complex “Sumapaz-Cruz Verde” as a major area for the long-term conservation of P. quadrijuga because it provides a wide range of suitable habitats for the different evaluated climate change scenarios. We provide the first set of priority areas to perform both in situ and ex situ conservation efforts based on suitable habitat projections.

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km2) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5% under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words: Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Mapping the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet under different climate scenarios, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km 2 ) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5%under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words : Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Potential distribution of Artemisia annua L.under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Jiang ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
Shiping Gao ◽  
Ruijun Wang ◽  
Ruchun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Artemisia Annua ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Occurrence Records

Aim:Artemisia annua L. is the one and only original plant used to isolate artemisinin which is a highly effective remedy to fight malaria. Climate change leads to change of distribution and suitable range for many species and A. annua is no exception. However, it is not clear that the potential distribution and suitable range change of this unique plant under climate change. Therefore, we present this research to study its change in the future. Location: Global. Methods: Since the accuracy of species distribution models was affected by occurrence records and environmental variables, 1062 presence records and 7 variables were picked out to build ensemble models with 10 different algorithms by means of biomod2 under current and future climate scenarios. Results: At present, except SRE, the AUC values of the rest models were greater than 0.8, and the TSS values were greater than 0.6, the values of ensemble model were 0.968 and 0.826 respectively. Mean temperature of driest quarter was the dominant factor to shape the range of A. annua and its optimum interval ranged from 4.8 to 23.3ºC. The high suitable habitats of A. annua were mainly located in Eastern Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe. In the future, the high suitable area would decline at 15.55% to 25.87%. Main conclusions: Ensemble models showed it performed better than any the single one. At present, the high suitable habitat simulated by ensemble model was in accordance with the actual occurrence records. In the future, the high suitable habitat for A. annua would move northeast, and disappear in North America. They would increase with time under each SSP, but sharply decline while comparing with the current one. This study can be used to protect wild resource and guide cultivation for A. annua, which would make modest contribution to fight malaria.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Atlantic Oceanic Island Tuna Fisheries

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryony L. Townhill ◽  
Elena Couce ◽  
James Bell ◽  
Stuart Reeves ◽  
Oliver Yates
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Tristan Da Cunha ◽  
Ascension Island ◽  
The Future ◽  
Overseas Territories

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of marine fish, and future change is expected to have a particularly large impact on small islands that are reliant on the sea for much of their income. This study aims to develop an understanding of how climate change may affect the distribution of commercially important tuna in the waters around the United Kingdom’s Overseas Territories in the South Atlantic. The future suitable habitat of southern bluefin, albacore, bigeye, yellowfin and skipjack tunas were modelled under two future climate change scenarios. Of all the tunas, the waters of Tristan da Cunha are the most suitable for southern bluefin, and overall, the environmental conditions will remain so in the future. Tristan da Cunha is not projected to become more suitable for any of the other tuna species in the future. For the other tuna species, Ascension Island and Saint Helena will become more suitable in the future, particularly so for skipjack tuna around Ascension Island, as the temperature and salinity conditions change in these areas. Large marine protected areas have been designated around the territories, with those in Ascension and Tristan da Cunha closed to tuna fishing. Although these areas are small relative to the whole Atlantic, these model projections could be useful in understanding whether this protection will benefit tuna populations into the future, particularly where there is high site fidelity.

Considerations for predicting climate change implications on future spatial distribution ranges of ticks.

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-43
Author(s):  
Ram Raghavan ◽  
Roman Ganta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Field Observations ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tick Distributions

Abstract This chapter focuses on spatial distribution models (SDMs) that are essential to producing reliable models of tick distributions, both in the present time and in the future, under climate change scenarios. It highlights the opinion that careful consideration of the methods is necessary in building SDMs, model assumptions, the limitations in predictions and making a careful interpretation of predictions, if possible, supported by field observations.

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